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WARNING: Bird flu pandemic 'could kill 150m'

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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:31 PM
Original message
WARNING: Bird flu pandemic 'could kill 150m'
James Sturcke
Friday September 30, 2005


An Indonesian agriculture ministry official injects a parrot with bird flu vaccine in Jakarta. Photograph: Tatan Syuflana/AP

A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people, the UN official in charge of coordinating the worldwide response to an outbreak has warned.
David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation, said outbreaks of bird flu, which have killed at least 65 people in Asia, could mutate into a form transmittable between people.

"The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging," he said.

He told the BBC that the "range of deaths could be anything between five and 150 million".

A highly pathogenic form of bird flu, known as the H5N1, has led to the culling of tens of millions of birds in south-east Asia, but efforts to contain it have not prevented it spreading as far as the Ural mountains in Russia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1582197...
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. Lovely
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Maple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
2. They already backed off that
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050930/hl_nm/birdflu_dc

little ol' panic-spreaders that they are.
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lady lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. In a related article, WHO tries to quell our fears w/this comforting
quote:
"We're not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins," said WHO influenza spokesman Dick Thompson.

"You could pick almost any number,"
OY!!!

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1173345
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. People die every day. Nobody is immortal.
Enjoy life while you can.
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Brother Buzz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. This month's National Geographic covers it, too...
It was a chilling read that finally connected all the dots for me. A lot of background on the history of influenza outbreaks, too. Check it out.
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Greybnk48 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. I read the Nat. Geo article last night--chilling.
I have a morbid interest in this since my grandmother died of it's cousin, the so-called Spanish Flu during the last pan-demic. I am trying to find something out about this one right now.

The last flu pandemic in 1918 was peculiar in that it primarily targeted people in their late teens through their mid to late twenties. My grandmother was 24 y.o. My grandfather was a bit older, about 30, and their were four babies in the house (Irish Catholic Immigrants) aged 5, 4, 3 and 1. No one else got sick, or at least no one else died. She was dead within three days. There are university studies that substantiate this age quirk. If (when?) this happens, I wonder if it will have a similar peculiarity.
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Bozita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
5. That was topic of Nightline last night -- ABCnews has a piece today
video from Nightline:
http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline /


http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/print?id=1172638

Expert Predicts 'Perfect Set-Up' for Avian Flu Pandemic

Doctor: We Should Heed Lesson from Deadly Flu Pandemic of 1918


Sep. 30, 2005 - Amid growing concern about whether the United States is prepared for a large-scale medical emergency, medical experts say a worldwide avian flu pandemic is inevitable.

"Pandemics are like hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Disease Research and Policy explained on "Good Morning America" today. "We had 10 of them in the last 300 years, and we're due for another one sometime soon."

The World Health Organization said today that between 2 million and 7.4 million people could die from a global flu pandemic. WHO spokesman Dick Thompson told reporters in Geneva that countries have been warned to be ready to deal with up to 7.4 million deaths, but conceded there was no way to determine the deadliness of the avian flu "until the pandemic begins."

The estimate was a stark contrast to the range given Thursday by Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N. coordinator for global readiness against an outbreak. He said that the world response to warnings would determine whether an avian flu virus ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million.

more...

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lady lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Bill Moyers covered it as well. LINK
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. So, what are the lessons from 1918?
The article says doctors told us to heed the lessons from 1918, but didn't tell us what they are. Does anyone know?
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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
8. We need to contact our Representatives before this becomes another Katrina
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NicoleM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 01:49 PM
Response to Original message
10. I just looked this up this morning.
The current death rate of the avian flu is 35-55%. If it stays that high when it mutates, it's going to kill a hell of a lot more than 150 million people.
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QuettaKid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. been reading about this for the past year....
people like to ridicule Rense and similar sites, but sometimes he IS a head of the curve.
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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. Question: ARE WE GOING TO WAIT UNTIL THE HOUSE IS ON FIRE BEFORE WE ACT?
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triguy46 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. OK, what actions are we to take?
First, nuke all the chickens. 2nd, ????
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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Have a meeting with all nations to brainstorm; write our leaders
oops... leaders... what a concept
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ClusterFreak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Or, to quote Nelson Muntz (from The Simpsons)...
...after Lisa noticed a poster he had which read "Nuke The Whales"...Nelson responded with "Gotta nuke somethin'"!! :rofl:
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triguy46 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
13. So is there CDC cover up?
So to whom do you look for public health direction. Go to cdc.gov and review thier avian flu site. Much calmer, more restrained. There is no talk there o 150 million deaths. Is this media hype or vast cover up? Do you believe that the CDC has been emasculated to be a political plum like FEMA or do you believe that it is a reliable public health organization?
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. I believe what's on the website doesn't reflect all of the
activity going on within the CDC and yes, the CDC has probably been hurt by 5 years of BushCo. As to whether they're taking the threat seriously, go to post #5 in this thread and follow the link to the transcript of Moyers' interview. We could get lucky with avian flu, but the potential for disaster is unfortunately quite real, IMO.
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ClusterFreak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
18. I don't quarrel with science.....
....but what else can you tell me today that won't depress the hell out of me?? I've already got the dry heaves worrying about the melting ice caps, super-hurricanes, declining sea stocks, peak oil, asteroids prepping to hit earth decades from now....enuff already. :hi:

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Generator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
20. Why is this story suddenly everywhere?
YES a pandemic could kill millions. That's what a pandemic is. AIDS is still doing that. Are they planning something if we get too uppity? First we let you know it can happen-so if millions die, don't say we didn't warn you.

What am I supposed to do about at threat that I can't do anything about? Oh yeah be afraid and miserable.

I had a friend that died of AIDS fifeteen years ago-he always thought it was a government doing somewhere. (Ooops why is this post suddenly transfered to the 9/11 forum? LOL)

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