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bustarbusto Donating Member (163 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:49 AM
Original message
Bird Flu could kill 150 million.
As if we didn't already have enough to worry about:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1582197...

From the Guardian:

Bird flu pandemic 'could kill 150m'

James Sturcke
Friday September 30, 2005

A global influenza pandemic is imminent and will kill up to 150 million people, the UN official in charge of coordinating the worldwide response to an outbreak has warned.

David Nabarro, one of the most senior public health experts at the World Health Organisation, said outbreaks of bird flu, which have killed at least 65 people in Asia, could mutate into a form transmittable between people...

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theboss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:50 AM
Response to Original message
1. My parakeet hasn't been looking well lately.
I just hope nothing happens to my cock.

I'll be here all week. Try the veal.
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rkc3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Headline in Sunday's paper:
"Choke your chicken to prevent outbreak."
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otohara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:51 AM
Response to Original message
2. Boogie Birds and Fear Mongering
this is not something I"m going to waste time worrying about - I'm more worried about how to pay for medicines.
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havocmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. Paying for meds NOT a problem the rich have, especially with flu looming
They will likely hire the soon to be dead to dig the mass graves for the already dead. Class warfare will pay off for the rich and the poor will die... again.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
3. I saw this on BBC World this a.m.
It's very disturbing, especially when you think about how our health infrastructure has been gutted over the past 20 years.
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seabeyond Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. yup
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
4. Not if you get your "Flu Buddy!" first!
Does anyone else hear the subtle strains of "Don't Fear the Reaper"
playing in the background?

Tesha
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lady lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
8. You can still buy Tamiflu online without a prescription. nt
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Beam Me Up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate)
FDA approved Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate), an oral anti-viral drug for the treatment of uncomplicated influenza in patients one year and older whose flu symptoms have not lasted more than two days. This product is approved to treat Type A and B influenza; however, the majority of patients included in the studies were infected with type A, the most common in the U.S. Efficacy of Tamiflu in the treatment of influenza in subjects with chronic cardiac disease and/or respiratory disease has not been established.

Tamiflu is also approved for the prevention of influenza in adults and adolescents older than 13 years. Efficacy of Tamiflu for the prevention of influenza has not been established in immunocompromised patients.


http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/tamiflu/default.h...
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
9. Very misleading heradline...
The quote was 5 to 150 million, and they're just taking the worst-case scenario and amplifying it.

Of course, 5 million is still 5 million too many.
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halobeam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
11. Harkin's amendment on cspan yesterday.
Interesting debate... Harkin said this needs to be addressed yesterday, we are in the midnight hour. We've waited until "after" tragedy's like 9/11 and Katrina, to fix "what went wrong".. being proactive to a disaster would be an improvement.

Republican Sen. from Alaska, sorry don't remember his name, was a big ass fool, throwing his hissy fit that this amendment doesn't belong in funding for defense.. never been done before.... he's in Alaska, sits in restaurants next to people who just came from Russia: without worries regarding the flu, etc.etc... hasn't been ONE case of human to human... blah, blah, doesn't belong in this defense bill...

response from Harkin: quite the contrar... he himself initiated in a defense spending bill a breast cancer initiative, that by the way passed and money since then (14 years ago) has been spent wisely with much help toward the cause. Cited CDC reps from meeting from the day before saying, it has been transmitted human to human... but once it is transmitted human to human to human, then it will be too late.

Republican Senator from NC, sorry, think the name is Burr? anyway, was in the meeting that Harkin referred to, agreed this is urgent, but offered a day next week to sit w/ Harkin and make a comprehensive plan to address Avian, along with other bio, chem, outbreaks/exposures..etc.

Harkin thanked him, but said, doesn't know when the procurement would take place for that, and that Friday, is the end of the fiscal year, it MUST pass now, and be separate from other outbreak/exposures, because of it's urgency, etc, etc.

Quite fascinating that we only have Tami-flu for 1% of our population, while 10 other countries have over 40% of their pop. covered with Tami-flu currently. He asked "Who may I ask will be privy to the few doses of Tami-flu?" We don't get that answer, (to paraphrase a quip he made.

He was adamant. I thought he did a great job. I tried to follow up and see if the amendment passed, but I don't know...

Anyone have more information on this?
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. there do appear to have been a few cases of human-to-human
transmission in Asia, but it's not something that happens readily, so the nightmare scenario is not yet upon us. The CDC/WHO types appear to think it's only a matter of time, now, before a strain that does pass quite easily from human to human breaks out. How lethal it will be and whether Tamiflu will do much good, even if you can get your hands on some, is anybody's guess. There was one study, in Vietnam I think, which showed that you need a higher dose than usual for a longer time period than is typical (10 days instead of 7, I think) for the Tamiflu to help and even that doesn't guarantee survival. That was for one strain of H5N1 and may not be true for "the" strain that makes the jump to human-to-human.
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bustarbusto Donating Member (163 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
12. Don't worry, Ready.gov's got it covered
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lady lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:24 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. LOL. That's hysterical.
And the gum stuck to the bottom of the desk provides an extra layer of protection.
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NNN0LHI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
14. Yea it might. Might not. Might get hit by an asteroid too. Might not n/t
Edited on Fri Sep-30-05 11:21 AM by NNN0LHI
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lady lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
16. FYI: Here's a link to Bill Moyers' excellent coverage of this topic
Edited on Fri Sep-30-05 12:56 PM by lady lib
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bustarbusto Donating Member (163 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Excellent overview. Of course, since there's no evolution...
Edited on Fri Sep-30-05 01:58 PM by bustarbusto
and everything was created by an intelligent designer a few months ago (ok, maybe a few years), there's really no risk of the virus evolving. I mean, how could it? It was intelligently designed to be exactly the way it is now, period!

Actually, this one does have me a bit concerned, despite the alarmist headline in the Guardian article. I'm glad to hear certain countries are working toward some level of preparedness in the (as it sounds, highly likely) event that it does evolve to the point where it can be efficiently transmitted from human to human. The worst part about a pandemic is knowing you could have prevented it, but instead watching it spread like a brush fire.

If it does make the leap and spread, maybe the US can modify some of those anti-anthrax and anti-smallpox stockpiles. Or they could have, if the requisite funding hadn't all been used up in tax breaks for the filthy rich, and Iraq. And missile defense. And highway pork. And some more tax breaks for the really despicably filthy rich. And cruise liners at a 200% markup per cabin.

But I digress.
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Dark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
17. Oh, for krissakes. Last year it was SARS, or West Nile, or some other shit
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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-30-05 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
19. I worry about an outbreak
of mild bird flu that does not have the characteristics to jump from bird to human. When there was a newcastles outbreak a few years ago they were confiscating peoples pet birds. I have an african grey that I adore. I also have two chickens. The mass hysteria of people worries me more than the flu itself.
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