Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Tin Foil Thoughts: Do they know who is gonna win before the election ?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU
 
kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:10 PM
Original message
Tin Foil Thoughts: Do they know who is gonna win before the election ?
I'm listening to Chris Matthews, Tom Brokaw and others talking as if they already know who the winner is and the polls aren't even closed yet?? I'm getting very uncomfortable conspiratorial feelings that it is all a fix. Why even vote at all? They know who they want to win ahead of time and play all of us citizens like fools. Until we get paper ballots with honest people to count them, I do not think I can ever trust our political system. The propaganda system is just too obvious. Sorry. I am not happy with the way our elections are held. After all, it doesn't matter how many people vote - all that matters is who counts the votes.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
frank frankly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. we are teetering on the edge of outright facism
someone page George Orwell quick.

the media keeps getting worse. no, they shouldn't know yet.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
2. The ploy might be to paint the picture of "why bother to vote".....
That's such an good question....I'm sure they'll answer for us later.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
3. or, we're so far behind that they know a comeback isn't possible
.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. This has been going on for at least the last three hours....
The exit polls, real or imagined, that certain members of the media have been pushing relentlessly. If there was anyone that had not voted and was debating whether or not to go tothe polls, I'm sure many have been convinced it is useless to make the effort. That is the appearance they are transmitting over "our" airwaves.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:13 PM
Response to Original message
4. two possiblities
They do and the more they repeat it the less people will protest
since they will just accept it.

They do not, but are just talking from wishful thinking and if this
becomes a shit storm, we may see them eat their words
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
dflprincess Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. A third possiblity is that
they know what the exit polls are saying.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Ding Ding Ding
We have a winner. Sad that sometimes the truth is obvious but we'd rather believe in a conspiracy...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. I know! What's up with that? they shouldn't be saying anything
until the votes are Counted. I'm hoping they will have egg all over their faces.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
6. This is the end of a very long road for me. I will NEVER listen to or
trust the American media again. NEVER.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Clete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. I also think they are trying to discourage
people from voting against the recall by announcing all day long that Arnold will probably win. They even had a nasty woman neighbor of Governor Davis on one of the channels telling how she hopes the recall goes through so she can get a new neighbor. I guess he didn't wave to her enough. This really makes me sick.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. They usually do know but aren't supposed to reveal it
I'm not being sarcastic. Exit polls give a pretty good idea of what's going to happen, and the networks all know what the exit polls are saying, but they aren't supposed to reveal anything until after the polls close. Listen long enough, and they will start talking about what they know and can't reveal, usually.

Exit polls are more reliable than pre-election polls, because you are interviewing people who have already voted. They aren't foolproof, though, because they still rely on assumptions about voting patterns, and in a close raise with high turnout there is more variable.

Elections aren't stolen on election day. They are stolen a year before, when people like Katherin Harris begin to purge voters rolls and come up with other strategies to influence who gets to vote. Usually there is no need to actually cheat on election day. Florida in 2000 was an exception, since the numbers were more pro-Gore than Bush had anticipated.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kainah Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
11. It's a thought I never had before 2000
but, from now on, I will never trust another election. I will make this prediction about the California election -- there is only one outcome that we will be given tonight: Recall, yes, Schwarzenneger, yes. Any other outcome will be "too close to call" tonight. I am absolutely convinced there is no way that Davis and/or Bustamente could come out with a clear win tonight ... no matter how the voting goes.

Our elections are suspect, folks. That's reality, not tin foil stuff.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
leftofthedial Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
12. welcome to Murka
gummint to, at and up the people
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HalfManHalfBiscuit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
13. It is called exit polling
All networks and major candidates do it. Nothing really new.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Must_B_Free Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:26 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Oh I remember...
Exit polls are the reason they called Florida for Gore, right.

Yeah I guess Exit Polls are %100 reliable - reliable ebnough to stake you network's reputation on it.

Yeah, I get it....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FightinNewDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Exit polls? Noooooo!
Let's blame it on a grand conspiracy that somehow involves Diebold, PNAC, Skull and Bones, Halliburton, Al From, Rush Limbaugh's housekeeper, Rupert Murdoch, the New York Yankees, Likkud, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Bowl Championship Series and Lyndon LaRouche.

Seriously, those of us who have been involved in politics for a long time and who have friends in the biz in Washington almost always hear leaks about the exit polls on election day. Unfortunately, they are generally correct. Last November, the numbers we heard during the afternoon indicated a bad night for Jeanne Shaheen and Shannon O'Brien. We all know the outcome.

Now, there are times when things break down. In the 1988 NH presidential primary, early exit polls indicated that Paul Simon had surged past Dick Gephardt and was within single digits of Michael Dukakis. As it turned out, Gephardt actually edged past Simon by about two percentage points.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. So you believe the "exit polls"?
Exit polls could never be manipulated? I have serious doubts about our entire electoral process.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FightinNewDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Tinfoil Time!

Look, I take all polls with a full shaker of salt (see my comments on the crackpot American Research Group), and exit polls are no different. However, I generally think that the flaws that develop are due to poor methodology, bad sampling and a lazy approach taken by the pollsters, not to some Great Left-or-Right Wing Conspiracy.

Most of my political experience has been in NH, so I will use it as a frame of reference. In NH, there are no electronic voting machines. Under state law, all ballots must either be old-fashioned check-the-box pencil and paper ballots, or optical scan ballots. In my ward in Manchester, we use Accuvote fill-in-the-bubble ballots. As a result, every vote in the state has a hard paper trail.

Generally, the exit polls pretty well track with the actual numbers. Since it is damn near impossible to electronically rig a sheet of cardstock and a golf pencil, I doubt that this is due to a pre-arranged scheme.

Where problems sometimes develop is in the exit pollsters choice of venue. Very often, VNS sends its teams to wards in Manchester, Concord, Portsmouth and to a few large, single-box communities near those cities. As a result, the candidate who wins the cities generally looks a bit stronger in the exit polls. In a close race, this causes problems. In 1996, ABC News, relying on exit polls, called the US Senate race for Dick Swett. Unfortunately, Swett lost to Bob Smith. How did this happen? Swett clobbered Smith in Manchester and Portsmouth, but Smith pulled out his core vote in smaller communities in the North Country and Lakes Region, as well as in rural parts of Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties. VNS never sends exit pollsters to remote communities like New Durham, Deerfield or Jaffrey, so so Swett's geographical advantages were greatly magnified.

So, do I put blind faith in polls? Heck no, but I try to base my doubts on some rational basis, not on any conspriacy theory.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Oct 02nd 2014, 08:35 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC