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60% turnout predicted ! What does that mean in the big picture?

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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:49 PM
Original message
60% turnout predicted ! What does that mean in the big picture?
Is that good for Davis? Or Schwarzenegger? Or Bustamante? Someone mentioned in passing that there may have been a large Latino turnout? If so, one would think that might bode well for Cruz Bustamante? It was reported on MSNBC...
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. WOW that is actually bad for
Arnie... and no special election is known for turnout, hence why they are usually good for Repukes.

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neuvocat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
2. Generally good for democrats.
That's why dems always try register people to vote.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. It means the LATimes is now my favorite newspaper.
:evilgrin:
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Shrek Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. The spin I heard
Was that a high turnout might mean a big win for the pro-recall forces. Supposedly those opposed to Davis would be motivated to turn out and vote against him, but his supporters aren't very rabid about it (so they might not make a special effort to vote).

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javadu Donating Member (291 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. I Posted This Very Question In Another Thread
I don't have the answer but there are 2 ways of looking at it.

The Negative Take: A lot of clueless moviegoers are coming out to vote because they think having the terminator as governor is cool.

The Hopeful Take: Dems are mad as hell and are coming out to support Davis in record numbers and are screwing up the pollsters turnout models.

Remember, this election is unprecedented and (in my mind) makes turnout models (based on past elections) and, therefore, polls completely useless. But, this means that the polls could over or underestimate the likelihood Davis survives this.
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zekeson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #5
11. I go with the theory that movie star voters
are crowding around to see Arnie at events, but are too lazy to get registered to vote. Seeing Arnie is cool, taking the time to register and vote is very unglamorous. (non-glamorous?)
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Girlfriday Donating Member (570 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
6. California is a Democratic State
Edited on Tue Oct-07-03 04:54 PM by Girlfriday
IMO the larger the turnout, the better for Bustamante. I really
don't think Gray Davis has a chance, unfortunately.
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Ilsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. That is what I read between the lines
from the CNN reports. That the recall will be passed. I'm hopeful that a large turnout will include a higher than usual proportion of hispanic voters and Bustamante will win.

I guess Issa will try and recall him also? Or are they limited to only one recall a year? ;)
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Woodstock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. so is Maryland, but it went for Ehrlich
The Dems did not put their best chance forward (Mayor O'Malley of Baltimore who practically oozes charm and is a natural politician) instead putting Kennedy Townsend (very subdued and NOT a natural politician) up because it was "her turn." O'Malley would have flattened Ehrlich (who ran as a moderate man of the people just like Bush and just like Bush is anything but one) like a pancake - his momentum was just right for winning then. So now he has to wait to run against an incumbent, because Ehrlich was elected the first Democratic governor in decades.

Looks like something similar is going to happen in California.

Moral of the story - always play your best hand and remember, in the end, it comes down to personality. If you've got it, you win. If you don't, you lose.
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Brucey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
7. In the past, a large turnout was good for Dems, but I don't think
it applies in this case. I think lots of apolitical, celebrity-worshiping, young, white men in backward baseball caps, dragging their girlfriends along, will vote for the first and only times in their lives. They will be grinning. They are ignorant and don't care or know about government. They know it would be fun to have a big, macho guy for governor.
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Democat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. The Jesse Ventura voters might be out in force
Those who think it would be "cool" if a dude who kills bad guys in the movies won.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:03 PM
Original message
That's what I'm afraid of... n/t
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Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:03 PM
Response to Original message
10. Actually it may approach 65% - 70%
The Latino vote is really kind of odd to figure.

First it is far from monolithic.
second Cruz ran a pretty lackluster campaign (If he ran agressive, he would be bossting himself and not no on the recall)

My original fear is that the Latino vote would be yes on the recall and for Cruz. Hoping to see a Latino Governor.

I don't think that is going to happen...but I also do not think they are going to vote for Arnold.

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Bandit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
12. There was a thread here a couple days ago about a sixth grade class
that voted and they voted overwhelmingly No against the Recall. I think the number was over 70% against. It was also said that it was a majority latino class but still indicative I think of how the election will go. I think Davis is going to slam dunk this thing and then change the law so this sort of travesty will not happen again.
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dofus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:48 PM
Response to Original message
13. An election day turnout story.
Election day, 1976. I was a part time student at Northern Virginia Community College. Most of the class consisted of kids 19, 20 years old. (I was several years older, the oldest in the class after the instructor) Before class started, the instructor leaned on his desk and said, "Today is election day. I hope all of you are registered to vote. It's very important that you do your civic duty and vote today. However, I want to remind you that a low voter turnout favors Republicans, so if you're a Republican, don't vote."

I was the only one who laughed. No one else got it. I voted immediately after class was over.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
14. I just heard the editor for the SF paper say big turnout helped Repubs ??
Because, he said, most of the new registered voters were Repubs? Anybody else hear this?
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
15. In the small picture it means crowds at the polls
Edited on Tue Oct-07-03 05:53 PM by slackmaster
Glad I went in early.

Someone mentioned in passing that there may have been a large Latino turnout?

This is California.

There is no such thing as a small Latino turnout here, be it your next door neighbor's daughter's 15th birthday party (Quinceniera) or a Goober-Nut-Orial election.
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