Sooooo......Any exit poll numbers yet?

[hang a left]

I am dying just dying. I can't think of anything else today. I am in repub country. I live at the end of a private road and when I pulled out this morning I saw 4 Arnold signs. I went back home and printed my Suddenly, I love Gray Davis, No on Recall. from moveon.org and taped it up in my back window. I drove all around hoping to do my part.

I was visiting Bev's site, and reading the posts of some of the problems people are encountering. I am scared. Got Numbers?

[clar]

1. No

I wish people would hold onto their horses. There won't be any numbers until the polls close at 8 PM PST. People keep asking this question over and over. I understand feeling antsy but I counsel patience.

[hang a left]

3. What there aren't exit poll releases anymore?

[trotsky]

5. Not since 2002

When exit polling differed from the official Diebold-certified vote count so dramatically.

[NewJerseyDem]

9. There will be exit polls

They just don't release them until after the polls close. I think they've always done this the same way in the past.

[Yupster]

26. With so many voting absentee these days,

it makes exit polling a lot less reliable anyways.

[ewagner]

2. Judy Woodruff had the Secy of State

of Calif on and the only thing he said was that voter turnout appeared to be "in record numbers".

Nobody has been releasing any exit polls yet, which I think is good.

Reading the tea leaves here, but a large turnout is a good thing for Davis and Bustemonte. We outnumber the repubs and if we just turn out we'll win........

Good job driving around with the sign...

I live in Wisconsin and I'm so hacked off about the calif recall I can't even concentrate on my work!

[Tansy_Gold]

12. Can't concentrate in AZ either

It's so scary.

Couldn't sleep last night, can't do anything constructive today. I just hope that high turn-out works out . .. .our way.


Tansy Gold, who has a teeny tiny bit of faith in her neighbors in California since AZ elected a Dem (if not a very liberal one) governor in 2002.

[in_cog_ni_to]

4. OMG!

4 people who were stopped after voting... on CNN.

1 GUY said he voted YES on the recall and Arnold. "Arnold is a GREAT guy!! He would NEVER grope women!" What an idiot!


1 GUY voted YES on recall and Arnold.


1 WOMAN!!!!! voted YES for the recall and Arnold!



1 woman voted NO on the recall and McClinock. THIS lady shocked Begala. :)

[cupcake]

6. Where did they find those four voters???

Did CNN say where they were exit polling?

[in_cog_ni_to]

27. No

they didn't say and I am not sure where Crossfire was broadcasting from in California...anyone know where Crossfire was at today? The 4 they talked to were just 4 people walking down the street who had already voted.

[karlschneider]

43. Paul & bowtie boy were in Burbank

;-)

[in_cog_ni_to]

67. Thanks!

:D Isn't Burbank...Liberal??

[MoonRiver]

82. Another example of rightwing media propaganda.

A record number of voters are turning out to vote in CA. That traditionally means DEMS WIN, regardless of all desperate corporate media spin to the contrary.

[MoonGod]

8. That sucks. This shouldn't be on TV...

...anybody who knows anything about TV/media effects knows that this has at least as much impact, if not more, than releasing exit poll data showing Yes/Arnold winning. I'm getting in touch w/all my friends and family and making sure they're voting. Make sure you do the same... especially with those who aren't politics junkies like ourselves.

[goobergunch]

53. My grandmother's...

voting NO on the recall and YES on Schwartznegger.

My branch of the family have given up talking politics with her.

[Brian Sweat]

76. Where was this? Orange County?

[NewJerseyDem]

7. They have to wait

I don't think it is a law but it could be. They don't release exit polling until the polls have closed. This way people aren't discouraged from voting becuase they may think the result has already been determined.

The media got in a lot of trouble in 2000 because they called Florida for Gore before polls had closed in the Florida Panhandle. Some republicans claimed that more voters would have voted in that republican area if they thought their votes would count but they didn't because the media already said Gore won. That doesn't make much sense because Florida was called only shortly before the polls would close and very few voters have time to leave their house and vote in only a few minutes and only some wouldn't end up voting just because the media called the result but republicans still complained.

Anyway, it would be a problem if the exit polls were already released and there were still several hours of voting.

[dolstein]

10. Double digit leads for the recall and for Arnold

Well, I hope my info is wrong, but it comes from a pretty good source.

Bear in mind, however, that there are millions of absentee ballots as well, which aren't going to be reflected in the exit poll data.

[cupcake]

11. What area?

Does this source have the scoop on the whole state or just one area?

[dolstein]

15. As far as I know, it's a state-wide projection

Although it's probably based on exit polls in select "bellweather" precints. That's how exit polls are ordinarily done.

[slackmaster]

13. Well dolstein, my mom says Arnold will take it all

She's very bright, usually right, and an ex-Republican who used to be quite active in politics.

[dolstein]

17. Hey, don't shoot the messenger

I don't want Arnold to win any more than you do. I wish I had better numbers to report, but I don't. Again, I hope these figures are unreliable, but I have no reason to believe they are.

[West Coast Democrat]

16. But you've predicted Arnold will win

all along. Is this exit polling data, or Arnold's internal poll data?

[dolstein]

19. No I haven't

And no, this isn't Arnold's internal poll data.

[West Coast Democrat]

22. Okay, I guess I'm thinking of your thread

predicting Bush will win in 2004.

[clar]

18. On the Dean Blog

I just read a post by someone who claimed to have seen internal poll numbers that put yes on the recall at 64% and Arnold at 59%. Hope it's not true.

[dolstein]

21. 59% sounds awfully high

I'd be pretty surprised if Arnold gets more than 50%.

[clar]

24. Sorry, Dolstein

Of course it's way too high. It was up by 9%, whatever that means.

[JanMichael]

29. Could ya' name a source? Or do you expect everyone to just take your word?

Well?

[West Coast Democrat]

30. On a different thread---

this same poster claims exit polls aren't reliable due to the absentee ballots. I'm not sure which story to believe!

[dolstein]

37. Yes, I did

I thought I had added that as a caveat to my original post under this topic. Of course, if the margins today are as large as the exit poll says, I'd be surprised if the absentee ballots would be able to offset that.

[dolstein]

39. I don't expect anything from DU'ers

And no, I'm not going to name my source. I can only say that it has been reliable in the past.

Trust me, I would like nothing better than for this information to be wrong. But I have no reason to believe it is.

[West Coast Democrat]

41. About your source---

Somebody at FreeRepublic seems to have the same story:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/996957/posts

[dolstein]

49. My source isn't a Freeper

But it wouldn't surprise me if the data all originates from the same exit poll.

[West Coast Democrat]

50. Well, given that the polls don't close for quite some time

maybe you should ask your source for an update.

[jiacinto]

45. Oh well

I mind as well try to make a few more phone calls to at least try to make it respectabl

[Kusala]

46. Are you a freeper?

This freeper is claiming the same thing. Sorry but it's a bit fishy when you both post with "My source claims double digit leads for Arnold and recall"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/996957/posts

freeper post listed below:

POSSIBLE CA EXIT POLLS--LEAKED DATA
Calblog ^ | October 7, 2003 | Armed Prophet


Posted on 10/07/2003 2:47 PM PDT by publius1


Apparently Leaked Exit Polling Says... Armed Prophet here, with what I believe is a major scoop, though it may not be entirely surprising.

That is, I'm hearing that early exit polling -- which includes absentees -- already shows the recall and Arnold both with "double digit" leads. (I'm a bit surprised to hear that those numbers are already being tabulated, but this is what I'm told.) Speculation is the race may be called within a few hours of the polls closing.

I obviously can't vouch for it myself -- I'm in DC -- but the source I'm hearing this from is very well-connected in state and national politics; if anybody would know this kind of thing out here, it's this person. So take this information with a bit of caution. But if I'm right, you heard it here first.

(Cross-posted -- sort of -- on Armed Prophet.)

[dolstein]

51. Sorry to disappoint you

but I'm not a freeper.

But it shouldn't surprise anyone that you'd see similar information posted on Free Republic. Word gets around very quickly -- people at the RNC pass on data they've seen to friends at the DNC (yes, some Republicans DO have some friends who are Democrats) and vice versa. I have no idea whether the exit poll data originated from the Davis camp or Arnold's camp. I only know that the person who provided me with this information has given me accurate exit poll data in the past.

Once again, I hope this data is wrong. But I have no reason to suspect that it is.

[Kusala]

57. not dissapointed

Unlike the media, I'm not afraid to question suspicious circumstances.

Sorry if you thought I was actually accusing you, as I stated in another post it was mostly sarcasm. I was just puzzled by the coincidence. Should have included a ;) i guess.

[Nederland]

52. Dolstein's not a Freeper

Merely a refreshingly honest source of information.

BTW, I think you should get a few more posts under your belt before you start implying that someone with nearly 6000 posts is a freeper...

[West Coast Democrat]

54. Give me a break!

Maybe the other guy hasn't been here for very long, but I sure have, and I've seen enough posts from both of you to form an opinion.

(By the way, I may not have over 1000 posts, but I've been around DU since its inception. You can never tell from post number totals.)

[Nederland]

59. Question

...and I've seen enough posts from both of you to form an opinion.

And what would that opinion be?

That we are basically Democrats that haven't drank enough of the party kool-aid to know reality when we see it?

[West Coast Democrat]

64. I remember you particularly from a discussion

where you claimed an American family could "easily" get by on a $40k salary.

[Kusala]

65. depends on the part of the country

and the size of the family. A family of four could live off that here, i wouldn't say easily(it's all in the budgeting), but it's not exactly poverty.

[Kusala]

55. thank you for your concern

it was more sarcasm than accusation. But nevertheless, it's a little bit of an odd coincidence and I think I was correct in asking for a justification.

I didn't realize post productivity was automatically a ticket to DU sainthood. Perhaps I should spend all day in the DU lounge raising my numbers posting "Ask me anythings", so that I can be considered a more reliable source. Then maybe you will attack others to defend my word also? That would be grand.

That was sarcasm too, FYI.

[aquart]

80. Tabulated?

[spindoctor]

14. O'Reilly claims to have numbers

Was listening to his show in the car a couple of hours ago and he was spouting out numbers that put Schwarzenegger in the lead.
Nothing but 'facts' of course.

CNN is doing exit-polls btw. They have their site prepared.

[Composed Thinker]

40. LOL. Thanks, that made me laugh.

[robbedvoter]

20. 2 million absentee ballots - probably we won't know today

As for those "connected" sources - no one but Diebold should be connected at this hour.

[Woodstock]

23. It seems like people have taken leave of their senses

Elect a body builder/bad actor to run a state in one of it's worst times of crisis?

Ignore warning signs of sexism?

Ah, what the hell, we love his movies, let's have him run a huge state! And who cares who he felt up! I'm sure they liked it!

Back to being an adult human being:

It's going to backfire if he wins, that will be more than enough consolation for us. He'll make a mess of the state, and finally (HUGE YAWN) the Bush/Rush collective can kiss the tiresome "Republicans have the moral highground" sham that we all know is a sham and have always known is a sham for God's sake at least try a new and more interesting sham goodbye. A sexual harrasser who is married to a Kennedy = POSTER BOY FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. :):):)

[hang a left]

25. I have to tell you guys something. I pick my 4th grader up from school

right and he tells me that his teacher(and I absolutely love her)told the class that she was voting for Arnold. I asked him if he said anything, because I was having a fit this morning about the Arnold signs. He is so cute, he didn't want to disagree with his teacher so he kept quiet. He hears me ranting and raving all the time about Bush* and the war.

It is hard to believe that such a lovely warm human being like my son's teacher could vote for Arnold. Some people just don't know.

[Woodstock]

33. Because he seemed like a good guy in Kindergarten Cop?

IMHO she had no business telling this to the class. She should keep her vote to herself.

[in_cog_ni_to]

34. OMG!!!

THAT is shocking! A FEMALE "TEACHER"????? voted for Arnold? OK, Now I'm going to go fix myself a TALL STIFF drink! What has happened to our country? *sigh*

[Greyskye]

48. No kidding

My wife co-teaches a class of 3rd/4th graders. Her teaching partner, a 50ish woman, has a "Join Arnold" bumpersticker on her car. My wife is hoping to gently bring her away from the dark side before the presidential elections. :evilgrin:

[bluestateguy]

42. I will say this for Reagan

He was much more articulate (at least he was in 1966 when he was elected) and he actually did have political experience as president of SAG.

[Generic Other]

28. Lester Holt says polls are 48% to 48%

That sounds familiar!

[maggrwaggr]

31. Yeah I just saw that but it was for "do you think the recall was worth it"

which I suppose translates into pro and con

[NewYorkerfromMass]

32. Yes. I know a very good number

turnout is high. That is good for us. You can take that to the bank.

[in_cog_ni_to]

35. Greenfield on CNN

says a high voter turnout "usually" favors the Democrats but, THIS TIME it will favor Arnold???? :wtf: Ummmm.why? My son was talking to me and I missed his reasoning for this thinking. :(

[Sean Reynolds]

36. Because that means a lot of 'youth' are voting.

And they're voting for Ahnuld because of his star craze.

[cupcake]

63. I'd hate to think you're right...

but you just might be. We've got to face it that a lot of voters are impressed by fame rather than substance. I'm hanging in there but I'm not feeling too good about this...

[BuckeFushe]

38. So, it comes down to these Rethug pinheads needing a "star" to win

because their message is so distorted and full of lies. What's next, some star running for Nickles seat in Oklahoma so he/she can become another RNC puppet?

[jiacinto]

44. Whatever will be will be then

nt

[jiacinto]

47. Wait a second--it's around 3:30 PM in CA

That means that the "after work crowd" hasn't come in and voted yet. Keep that in mind.

[slackmaster]

60. Everyone I know voted before work

That is unusual. There is above-normal interest in this election IMO.

[Merlin]

69. You're right. That's my hope, too. Fingers crossed here. n/t

.

[CMT]

56. listening to network newscasts makes me feel it is over

and Arnold has won. They don't come out and say it but they present it in a way which makes it sound like it such as "Talk radio has galvanized Arnold supporters--especially young men to turnout today..." I think they have looked at the exit polls and unfortunately it doesn't look good.

[Woodstock]

61. Great, tales of groping women brought out Rush's boy listeners

Sad.

[Timefortruth]

58. This means little, but Arnold seemed stressed when he voted

and Cruz and Davis seemed optimistic.

[DemNoir]

62. This would be beyond horrible

It would be one thing to have Arnold win but if he does it in a landslide, this indicates very serious problems with our country. Im starting to feel like anything can happen.

Im usually have no patience for nervous nellies around here, but this possiblity makes me tremble.

[cupcake]

68. don't even think things like that.

If Arnold won in a landslide his ego would be enormous. :(

[cupcake]

66. Numbers all over he place...

Checking through a couple of radio shows some say recall is very close, others say it's starting to pull away and could accelerate... too much disinformation. I think I'll turn everything off and wait for the newspaper tomorrow. :(

[Democat]

70. Drudge says it's over - Arnold won

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=154895

[jiacinto]

71. The rush hour after work crowd hasn't voted yet

But things don't look good.

[grasswire]

72. MSNBC is announcing exit polling right now.

At least on the ballot measures.

[Starpass]

73. just saying this

I live a few miles east of the CA border---in Maine. I can read the handwriting on the wall here. Yes, Davis will be recalled. Yes Arnold will win. Don't "get over it" but "get on the stage two and fucking fast". The Dems need to push the "felt up broads" issue IMMEDIATELY--like tomorrow. I believe there is talk of possible "charges", etc. Scew it people. We have to finally get with the "repuke" program as they have outlined it for us. CA people need to start a Clinton-like witch hunt of this bastard TOMORROW--and I don't mean fucking 2 months from now. He has to know nothing but attacks from day one. You need to destroy him and to destroy the fact that he is the "republican image"--i.e., lying, hypocrites who don't know shit about running this country. You can't go on vacation. This is the big election "year" and you have to make life a living hell for this pathetic, stupid scumbag.

[T Roosevelt]

77. Also a great opp to bring Enron back to the front

Unfortunately I don't think there was enough time to press this prior to today, but now that it's out, we need to press it. Forms a(nother) basis for recalling this jackass should things turn out bad (I still have hopes that Calif is not totally stupid).

[TacticalPeek]

74. Instant replay . . . immediate recall.

:)

[IkeWarnedUs]

75. I wrote this in another thread that was locked as a dupe

A New Jersey company is supposed to be doing exit polling for the California recall - Edison Media Research.

From their website:

Edison Media Research will be conducting an exclusive Exit Poll for the California Recall Election on Tuesday October 7th. Subscribers include AP, ABC, NBC, CNN, Fox, New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Sacramento Bee, KABC-TV, KCBS-TV, KNBC-TV, KNSD-TV, KTVU-TV and KNTV-TV.

Link: http://www.edisonresearch.com/california_recall_election.htm

Here is a link to the bios for the company officers - I didn't see any red flags in here:

Link: http://www.edisonresearch.com/bios.htm

Do any DU'ers know anything about this company?

Cupcake wrote this in response to my post:

Larry Rosin is co-founder and President of Edison Media Research. He has been involved with media for over 20 years, the last fourteen in audience research. Rosin has been recognized as one of the leading thinkers in the field, and advises many of the world's largest media companies, including AOL/Time Warner, Sony, Gannett and CBS.

Rosin has served as a media consultant to the U.S. House of Representatives Democratic Caucus and has presented research both on Capitol Hill and the White House.

-------------------

If nothing else, it will be interesting to see how the exit poll reporting by the media sources listed above compare with those not on the list.

[Blitz]

78. Here are some of Fox's numbers

They don't indicate votes, as you can see:

The following numbers reflect 1,409 interviews from 60 polling locations, plus 400 interviews conducted by phone with 400 absentee ballot voters.

Last Updated 6 p.m. ET.

• Gov. Gray Davis Job Rating

All
Approve 26%
Disapprove 73%


Women
Approve 27%
Disapprove 70%

• Opinion of Arnold Schwarzenegger

All
Favorable 51%
Unfavorable 44%


Women
Favorable 47%
Unfavorable 47%


• Opinion of Cruz Bustamante

All
Favorable 37%
Unfavorable 58%

Women
Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 55%

• Did Schwarzenegger address the issues?

Yes, he did 32%
No, he didn’t 62%

I hope that this doesn't violate the new Election directive as it is being posted strictly for informational purposes. If the mods feel that it does, delete with my blessings.

[jiacinto]

79. This is what I find to be amazing

Women have a lower impression of Bustamente than Arnold, who admittedly sexually harassed women?

Ladies of DU, please don't be offended; but what the hell is wrong with these women? Don't they have any self-respect for themselves?

[laruemtt]

81. imho

it's the whole star thing - gush, gush. unfortunately sometimes that's as far as some women's "minds" go. i'm female and i don't think bamboo sticks up my fingernails would make me vote for ah-nuld. i think he's shallow, egotistical and just plain stupid, the three biggest turn-offs i know of.

[janx]

83. What is wrong with Democrats, period, in California?

Don't they see this for what it is?