Open Senate Seat in OK--Nickles (R) retires

[jiacinto]

" Nickles became the second Republican lawmaker to announce retirement plans, after Sen. Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois.

His departure will complicate Republican efforts to hold the seat and also to retain their current majority, although Oklahoma has swung solidly behind GOP candidates in recent senatorial and presidential elections. The White House as well as Republican senators have tried to persuade Nickles to seek another term.

Nickles would have been a safe bet for re-election. So much so, that Rep. Brad Carson, D-Okla., has indicated he would only be interested in running for the seat if the four-term incumbent did not.

Carson, in his second term, did not disclose his plans Tuesday, but a Democratic source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that with Nickles out of the way, Carson would run and likely would form an exploratory committee in the next week or so."

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55405-20...

So this is going to be a good contest. My pick, though, would be AG Drew Edmonson. But then again I think Carson will be a top tier candidate.

What do you all think of this race?

[Hawkeye-X]

1. It'll go Dem

If the trend holds true, then the chances of an OK Dem senator will be much higher, if the gov's approval ratings are high.

What are his numbers anyway?

Hawkeye-X

[jiacinto]

2. Not sure

But this will be a cool contest to watch next year.

[RummyTheDummy]

3. Brad Henry (the governor)

Has only been in office here since January, so there hasn't been any polls released just yet, or at least any that have been made public.
There could be a lottery initiative on the ballot next year which could both hurt or help the dem canidate.

[Frodo]

4. That's the spirit! But based on what?

What "trend" are you refering to?

It will obviously depend of who decides to run, but I think it's likely we'll see J.C. Watts in that race (or perhaps Largent). In either case it would lean heavily away from us.

[RummyTheDummy]

6. We won't see Largent

He's still dazed and confused after getting upset by Henry in Nov. Plus, the Repuke party here is a little down on him after the way he ran his campaign and stepped on some toes in '02.
Watts is another story, but he just left Congress and has had some personal problems lately (his brother in a murder wrap and his son just got aquitted on a drug dealing-possession charge) so that's something to consider with him.

[jiacinto]

7. Largent lost a race that he was supposed to run away with

He won't run.

[Frodo]

9. To be fair -

- He lost a race where another Republican got in against him and spent millions of his own dollars running to the right of Largent (a very small place, believe me).

He drew something like 100,000 votes in a race that Largent lost by (I think) less than 5,000 votes.

If you think that means he's unable to win statewide, you need to show me who that third candidate will be running to his right in a self-financed campaign... or I don't want to hear any more about how many states we win by adding Nader+Gore.


HOWEVER - I do think it's likely to be Watts. He's been hinted as a Senate candidate since he "retired". And he's FAR more troubling for us than Largent.

[jiacinto]

11. Fair enough

But still he lost and that's what counts.

[Frodo]

13. Try telling that to Democrats in GA...

... who want Sen. Cleland to run again.

But it's still a good point

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Watts has been floated as a candidate

And would be the most likely. However, his recent personal problems (plus the fact that his wife doesn't want him to run), may deter him from the race. The Repukes have started polling, and look like they want Rep. Ernest Istook.

Democrats, however, have a top tier candidate, and more importantly, a great candidate in Rep. Brad Carson. Like Chris John in Louisiana, I think that he'll win. However, his House seat will be difficult to hold onto and we'll have to put in a top tier candidate.

(On a side note, which presidential candidate is leading in Oklahoma? Is it Dean?)

[OKNancy]

18. You're kidding

Dean leading Oklahoma....BWHAHAHAHA

Clark is here in Tulsa in 30 minutes at the pipefitters union hall, but I'm going over to a fundraiser on..get this Terwilliger Street.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. Carson's seat is safe

it's solidly Democratic as far as party registration goes. It did vote for * because there are a lot of DINOs, but it will vote in another moderate Democrat like Carson most likely.

[fob]

5. Come on, Say it with me....

SENATOR BARTCOP!!

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Do we know who will run

to replace Fitzgerald in Illinois? I'm so glad he's retiring. I heard he was having a difficult time getting along with other GOP because his vote couldn't be bought...he's a millinaire so doesn't NEED the $$. However, his votes are ALWAYS with the party line. I'm glad he's going but, who's running for the seat? Anyone know? I may help campaign for whoever it is. We only need 2 Senators, right? 12....2....and 1!

[mndemocrat_29]

12. There are many, many candidates running

The main candidates, however, seem to be Barack Obama, Maria Pappas, Dan Hynes (the establishment favorite), and Blair Hull.

[kaitykaity]

10. Kick.

[JasonBerry]

15. Watts WILL NOT WIN - Probably not run

I just posted this in LBN:

JC Watts is persona non grata with the Oklahoma Republican party. He couldn't raise a dime in OK. He had MAJOR baggage that was going to be released on him; that's why he didn't run for re-election to his congressional seat. Tom Cole wanted it. What Tom Cole wants, Tom Cole gets in Oklahoma GOP circles. The Repubs will probably nominate Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys. All the big names in the OK GOP are expected to fall in line behind him. Unfortunately, he will probably win. So, here is this guy:
http://www.okc.gov/query.html?council/mayor/Mayor_new.h...
UNLESS....Brad Carson runs. If Carson runs, he might make a race out of it. AND....as I was typing, somebody told me Carson is 99% sure to run. He is a Rhodes scholar, a brilliant young politico and a moderate - not a Zell Miller at all.
http://carson.house.gov /

Nickles, truly, was not expected to run again. He is wrong on most all the issues, but he honestly is NOT close to the Bushies. In fact, during the last term, he really moderated many of his stances (The unemployment thing aside...that was nuts).

Could be interesting if Carson gets the necessary backing from the national party. With the balance SO close - I don't think they can afford to write-off Oklahoma. Especially after 2003. Story there was that Oklahoma DID just elect a Democratic governor with hardly ANY support from the national party. They didn't think a dem had a chance. Wrong. Pie on the face. Another reason TM should be GONE from the DNC.

[jiacinto]

16. Well I think Carson is going to run

And he would have a good shot at winning it. Carson probably won't meet "DU standards" but he would be a hell of an improvement off Nickles.

[JasonBerry]

17. You are SO right

Carson is about as good as they come for Oklahoma. My favorite senator ever was from Oklahoma: Fred Harris.

[jiacinto]

22. Yeah

But Harris served like 40 years ago in a much different time.

[JasonBerry]

24. Yep! That's what I meant

Carson is as good it gets for Oklahoma today. A Harris could never come close.

[jiacinto]

25. Nope

he sure couldn't.

[ButterflyBlood]

21. Oklahoma needs at least tolerable Senator

Carson would be an astronomical improvement over Nickles.

[goobergunch]

20. I'm not really sure about our chances until we see who's running

but this is VERY good news for us. Edmonson and Carson would be both great candidates...unless they had a bloody primary.

[jiacinto]

23. Carson is going to run

At least that's what the news reports say.