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Do high turnouts favor Democrats?

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mac56 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:20 AM
Original message
Do high turnouts favor Democrats?
That's what I've always heard. Is it true?

Since the Repugs are (allegedly) better at mobilizing their base, it would seem that the Repug base votes every time, no matter what. It seems logical to me then that a turnout that surpasses just the base will include more Dems, and the higher it goes the more Dems will be included.

Does anyone have anything firm on this?
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LeftCoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. In CA
Dem registrations are significantly higher than Rep, so if turnout is high more Dem's come out to vote.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. My prediction?
Davis defeats the recall.

73% to 27%.

Bustamante leads the YES on the recall candidates. Ahhnold finishes with a dismal 19%. McClontick (whatever his name is) is right behind at 18%.

Hawkeye-X
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. I forgot about what Joefree did the other day with the "Drummer"!
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thank you, Joefee!
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. Wow! That would be awesome!
How's your track-record for predicting elections?
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Selwynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #2
9. Are you smoking crack?
73%?

:wow:
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einsteins stein Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. Thats a BOLD Prediction!
I hope you underestimated :-)
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dkamin Donating Member (283 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
3. yes
the counterargument is that independents can go either way, and that arnold is more like jesse ventura than a republican.

but right now, non-voters trend overwhelmingly democrat.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
6. Only if they get to vote
and then only if those votes count. And it is sad that I should have to say this due to events 3 years ago.
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Selwynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
7. NO - statistically speaking
Low turnouts favor democrats.

*puts his political operative cap back on*

What you want truthfully is high morning turnout, and low afternoon/evening turnout. Democrats vote early.

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einsteins stein Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Naww, Really?
Got a source on that?
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Gman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
10. Generally, yes
because Democrats aren't always prone to vote. If it's a nice day Dems that may not normally vote, will go vote. Which is why the general belief has always been that Republicans pray for rain on election day.
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