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Jack The Tab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:15 AM
Original message
Who else thinks that Arnold won't win?
I don't think it's gonna happen for him. I think he's taken those hits and people do recognize a sexual predator and nazi sympathizer when they see one.

It's a shame that the absentee ballots were cast before all of his perversions came to light, but I still think that he won't win.

I honestly feel this in my gut. They will scream and cry and bitch and pout and throw lawsuits out of their ass, but they are not going to win CA.
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pmbryant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
1. Me
But I don't know how much I'd wager on it.

I have no real clue what's going to happen. But, in my gut, I feel he will not even come particularly close to winning.

:shrug:

--Peter
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Castilleja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
2. Me
But it's more of a hope that he won't. He has bad vibes.
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JanMichael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
3. It's a toss up.
The recall could go either way.

As to suits I think that regardless who emerges "Victorious" there will be some significant litigation.
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Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. And, it must be noted...
If Arnold DOES get elected, with all the sexual harassment charges hanging over his head, the California Supreme Court could render the decision that he is unfit to serve.

Thus extending the absurdity of it all past its illogical extremes.

Were I the reasoable people of California, I would be pissed off mightily.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Hey, Tandy
And don't forget, our State A.G., Phil Angelides has 39 days to certify the votes. I'm fairly sure he's going to need all of those 39 days. :evilgrin:
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Terwilliger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #11
27. ummm
did I miss Bill Lockyer's exit?
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #27
37. Oh, well, shit
You're right. Look you guys, I can either be stunningly beautiful or perfect. Today is apparently my day to be stunningly beautiful. B-)
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Terwilliger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:26 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. Beautiful is good
perfect is an illusion
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pmbryant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #11
31. Isn't that done by the Secretary of State?
And isn't that someone by the name of Kevin Shelley (or something like that)?

Also, the Atty General is Lockyer as Terwilliger points out.

Angelides is the Treasurer, I think, but I don't really know what his position is.

:shrug:

--Peter
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Merlin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
4. I do. Recall will fail. n/t
.
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Democrats unite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
5. Me.
eom.
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gristy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
6. I'm through predicting for the next 24 hours.
Gotta get some work done...
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
7. To me, the sex stuff is icing on the cake
Edited on Tue Oct-07-03 11:21 AM by rocknation
Because there ISN'T any cake. He's got no platform, no passion, no COMpassion, no direction, no nothing. This is just another acting job for him. He's not doing this because he "cares" about them! And the people of California had better give him a "total recall" if he obstructs the lawsuit Bustamante set up to get the $9 billion that Enron stole.

http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=284&row=0
http://newsreview.com/issues/sacto/2003-08-28/essay.asp


rocknation

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ElsewheresDaughter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
8. recall will fail
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rjbcar27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
10. He'll win.
My view from across the pond is that Davis will be recalled and beefcake will win.

It sucks.
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #10
33. Dead heat
My view from deep inside CA is Shickelgroper has been losing votes like a weak bladder. It's even steven. If Dems can get out the vote we can turn it around.
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Booberdawg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
12. I think there is a chance he will fail
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #12
32. Arnold is an idiot
Edited on Tue Oct-07-03 11:55 AM by Art_from_Ark
Hopefully, enough California voters will realize that.
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FauxNewsBlues Donating Member (420 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
13. Absentees are the prob
If the election were literally held today, with everybody actually voting today, I think it would go down. Too many cast ballots that were sent off before the Nazi/groping stories came out in the press.
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bif Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
14. Californians can't be that dumb
Can they?
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. Ah, bite me
This wasn't OUR idea -- this was straight from the Bush White House and Darrell Issa's millions and a lot of star-struck idiots WHO HAVE MOVED HERE FROM OTHER STATES voting for this masher.

Now, nothin' but good vibes or I'll have Skittle kick yer ass! B-)

OOOOHHHHHMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #16
24. Notice how the White House has stayed out of this
This recall could bite the bush administration in the butt. If Arnold wins, can Bush be seen campaigning with a pro-choice/pro-gay/sexual deviant??

I mean all three of those things will throw his religious fundie supporters into a tizzy!
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Kazak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Thats what I'm thinkin'...
but who knows, really...time will tell.
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Terwilliger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. like the rest of the country in 2000?
yes...people are that stupid
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Ter!!!!!!!!!
Dude! Good, positive vibes!!!


OHHHHMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Terwilliger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. I think AHH-nold is going down

I agree with Jack...I think NO will prevail
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diplomats Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #22
36. I hope so!
You live in Calif., don't you, Terwilliger?
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
15. I don't think he'll win legitimately, but I worry about the voting
machines.
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MISSDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #15
21. He is going to win because he is a Republican and
a celebrity. Some people love celebrities no matter what. Remember the cheering for O.J. Simpson?
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cspiguy Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
20. A Republican in California? What were they thinking?
No chance for Big Jerk. Davis has the machine and the people. One call can bring out hundreds of thousands. This is OUR state.
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MISSDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. Can you believe it, even Eunice Kennedy Shriver
is supporting him. I know, relatives and all, but ...
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. Eunice is the mother-in-law
and she's supporting her daughter.

Is Ted or any of the other Kennedy's out there giving support. In fact I think Ted Kennedy came out point blank and said he does not support the recall or Arnold
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CBHagman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #25
34. I think you're right about Ted Kennedy.
The word is that he's pretty tight-lipped about the whole recall issue.

I'm disgusted about Eunice, though, especially since I'd thought of sending her a t-shirt printed with the message "MEIN SCHWIEGERSOHN IST EIN RICHTIGER ARSCHLOCH." ("My son-in-law is a right a******.")
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
26. I hope your "gut" is right on, Jack The Tab!
Here's to your gut and California! :toast:
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VeniceBeat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
28. My Brother Called Me Last Night and Told Me
that if the Red Sox won Davis would prevail.

The Red Sox won. :)
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
29. Reports here in CA are that we may be looking at upwards of 80% turn out..


The higher the turnout, the better the chance the recall will fail.
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dkamin Donating Member (283 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:54 AM
Response to Original message
30. Arnold will lose
and i put money down on it. $50 on Gray Davis at +200 (though 2 hours after i placed it, it moved to +250, curses!), and $50 on bustamante at 5-2 if the recall succeeds.

unfavorable numbers on arnold rising. this means that either those voters will now vote AGAINST the recall, stay at home, or vote yes and then yes for mcclintock or bustamante.

also, i posted yesterday, but i think with high turnout the polls become very wrong, because they undersample minority voters, who trend strongly democratic, and oversample white males, who trend strongly republican. with high turnout, the white males, the stalwart of every election, get swamped. hence, 2000's grossly wrong polls on al gore.

one final note. all the (legit) polls i've seen have arnold winning something like 35-25-15. are we really to believe that 25%(!!!) will vote for other candidates, especially given that this race has become so partisan? the undecideds, who are almost all democrats upset with davis, go to bustamante because they don't want arnold.
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:00 PM
Response to Original message
35. i'm going to have faith in the good sence of the people of
California. I hope they won't let us down.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
38. I refuse to believe that my fellow Californians will elect the gubernator.
Call me delusional, but I just cannot believe it will happen. If he is elected I won't believe it either. I will live in a parallel universe of my own making until 2004, when the clown in the WH is ejected, and 2006 when California staggers to it's senses.
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