Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

True June unemployment rate -- 11.7% Reputable source

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:29 AM
Original message
True June unemployment rate -- 11.7% Reputable source
From http://www.njfac.org/index.html

(U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS)

Officially unemployed: 7.5 million (5.0%)

Hidden unemployment: 9.7 million

Total: 17.2 million (11.1% of the labor force)

Group made up of many distinguished scholars and former govt officials including Robert B. Reich (Former Secretary of labor.
Pass this one on to your friends!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
knowbody0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:35 AM
Response to Original message
1. so, when your unemployment insurance runs out
you are no longer counted?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. If you are looking for work you are counted
But also, if you worked at all in the week they check, even a temp job or a single day, you are counted as "employed".

HIDDEN UNEMPLOYMENT
Working part-time because can't find a full-time job: 4.5 million

People who want jobs but are not counted in official statistics because not looking (of which about 1.6 million** searched for work during the prior 12 months and were available for work during the reference week.) 5.2 million
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
punpirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. If you still report to the unemployment office...
... after your benefits run out, showing that you are looking for work, they can track you. But, if you don't go to the unemployment office (and most professionals and semi-professionals don't because, typically, the jobs there aren't what they're looking for), they can't track you. You fall into the category of "discouraged workers" who've stopped looking for work, and frankly, I don't think anyone has a handle on just how large that category is. And, it is big.

Cheers.



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:01 AM
Response to Reply #7
11. And married households where one is staying home
Edited on Wed Jul-20-05 03:01 AM by podnoi
They also don't report on the number of married households where one has "taken a break" and they are living on one income. This site also mentions the phenomenum of close to retired ppl who start their social security prematurely early when they can't find work. Also not included.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. You know, that's not a surprise.
Considering the way the Bureau of Labour Statistics fudges the numbers (only those collecting unemployment benefits are counted as unemployed, for instance), the actual US unemployment rate has been around 10-12% for some time now...that's about the same as the average in Europe, and in line with unemployment figures in Germany (and economists say THEIR economy is "stagnant").

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. The great thing is this is a reputable group
Economists, Nobel Laureats, University Professors, former Department of Labor officials.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. Not really, European UE is still considerably higher
even when US methods are used to calculate European unemployment.

http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.c...

There are also alternate measures of unemployment that the BLS issues every month that you can see here:

http://bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:58 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Yes, but they are not reported in the MSM.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. I wouldn't expect them to report
all the intricacies of the Employment Situation Report each month.

U3 has always been the official unemployment rate used.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #14
25. Something is wrong with "U3" statistics
If U3 were a good contra-indicator of effective employment then this economy would be similar to the economies in the last 30 years with similar unemployment rates. I just don't see any comparison. It has *never* in my working life been this difficult to find decent work. (I am currently employed but was out of work recently).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:05 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. I'm not seeing "considerably higher".
And the only European countries there are France, Germany and the UK...granted, unemployment is surely considerably higher in eastern Europe, but as far as I know the average rate for the EU is somewhere between 12-15%.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:19 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. I should have clarified, I was speaking of the EU,
more specifically France and Germany which have UE rates considerably higher than in the US.

Even using US methods to calculate unemployment France and Germany have UE rates that quite higher than ours.

Eurostat has EU-wide unemployment at 8.8% this month:
http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/portal/page?_pageid=1996...

With Germany at 9.6% and France at 9.8%. I'm not sure if Eurostat uses its own methods or just takes data from the various contries.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. I hope you don't actually believe that US unemployment is less than 6%?
Calculating the number of long-term unemployed persons who are no longer looking for work (and thus are not counted), not collecting unemployment benefits (and thus not counted), those who are underemployed and able only to find part-time work, and so on, the actual US figures are HIGHER than those you cite for France and Germany.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:35 AM
Response to Reply #21
24. I'm just speaking of applying the BLS' concept of U3 unemployment
Edited on Wed Jul-20-05 03:36 AM by tritsofme
to other countries as was done here:

http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.c...

I look at the alternate measures of unemployment the BLS gives us here:
http://bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

to draw my own conclusions about the labor market as well as looking at the labor force participation rate and other indicators.

Also, receiving unemployment benefits and being counted as unemployed by the BLS are basically unrelated. The unemployment rate is calculated through the Current Population Survey (CPS) in which the BLS interviews 60,000 households each month.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:44 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. From what I know, those numbers are low.
I've seen reference to 10-12% ACTUAL unemployment for several years now; and it's very obvious that there are serious flaws in the methodology employed in arriving at the "official" numbers. A statistically random sampling of sixty thousand people is not going to provide anything like an actual picture, especially when many of those without work are either without telephones (being unable to afford the expense) or have no landline, using prepaid cellular because it costs less.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:55 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. Many parts of the interview are done in person
The broadest measure of unemployment, around 9%, seems like a reasonable number, not 10-12%, maybe a few years ago though.

Much of the problem with U3 unemployment is the fact that so many people have stopped actively looking for work and are no longer counted under U3.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:26 AM
Response to Reply #15
22. Sweden 6.6, Netherlands 4.7 - 2004
Those may have gone up though I saw there is a big push for full employment in Sweden right now.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:41 AM
Response to Original message
4. This unemployment rate more closely matches our Euro neighbors
Edited on Wed Jul-20-05 02:41 AM by Selatius
France and Germany both have unemployment rates around this level. The only difference is that they have better social programs and safety nets to look after the poor and needy.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Elwood P Dowd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:49 AM
Response to Original message
6. We need more free trade deals like CAFTA
Level that playing field and millions of jobs will be created by all those $2.00 a day Central American workers buying American-made tennis shoes, DVD players, televisions, and MP3 players.

Just ask our brilliant economic guru President. It's hard work, but he is leveling the playing field. Just trust him, support CAFTA, and plenty of jobs will come our way.

:sarcasm:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 02:55 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Yes, like the minus 20,000 jobs since he entered office to now.
Edited on Wed Jul-20-05 02:56 AM by podnoi
(on edit: sorry - .02 % employment growth in the last 5 years, not 20k)

And during that 4.5 years the number of working adults continued to increase.

http://www.njfac.org/jobnews.html

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:01 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. That number must be outdated
As of June he was positive 1.083 million in total non-farm employment and positive 161,000 in private sector employment.

Still pitiful considering the sheer amount people that have entered the labor force since then.

Though I don't have the numbers in front of me, the labor force participation rate is lower now that it has been in recent memory.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:12 AM
Response to Reply #12
17. Sorry, correction: that was change in Private sector
I looked back and indeed you are right. The -.02 is June 05, but it is private sector employment. Hmm.. so much of this was government hiring? Military related?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:21 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. I have speculated it might have something to with the TSA
but I have no way to prove that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Elwood P Dowd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. Bush is creating plenty of jobs
My friend Harvey just got a job with Wal Mart last week. After taxes, he took home almost $90.00, and that's only part-time. Just think, when he goes full-time, $200.00 a week is possible. If he works hard and saves his money, he can move out of my bathroom basement in a few years. The Bush economy is working.

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:03 AM
Response to Original message
13. If you
throw in workers who are working (fulltime) at something other than their trained (or previous) professions (and at lessor wages than would be), or are working in the same professions at substantially lower wages than previously, the number is even higher.

But I like a breakdown of unemployed, underemployed and misemployed. And even with this breakdown, unemployment is much higher than reported.

In any event, the employment situation is not nearly as rosy as the government makes out.

However, if the government did report more realistic numbers on unemployment (and inflation, etc), the defecation would probably hit the whirling blades in very short order. The economy is a house of cards, just waiting for a gust to topple it.

And one can take advantage of the bs to argue for policies one supports.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:15 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. This information is elsewhere on the site
One author stated the underemployed adds another 15% .
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:32 AM
Response to Reply #18
23. Well, if his
"underemployed" is the same as my "misemployed", then that sounds about right to me (maybe even low). Last time I was a manager, I had a significant part of my staff working in my misemployed category. And there were others, like an engineer as secretary, that I remember.

We have squandered our position -- it's just a question of how long we can put off coming to terms with it.

And yeah, I'm in the "put it off as long as possible" group, even if this makes the fall worse. With these guys in charge, we have no hope of solving all our problems. None, zero, nada, zip.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
podnoi Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:39 AM
Response to Reply #23
26. Also not counted : TEMPORARY jobs....
And there are many statistics that show those are very high in this economy.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 03:51 AM
Response to Reply #26
28. Being careful to
avoid any group overlap, this probably adds another significant percentage to the number of those not falling within the traditional model of having a fulltime, permanent job making a salary commensurate with one's skills and experience.

But the whole neocon economics thing is about beating down those who aren't at the top (and giving the resulting loot to those at the top). It's just slower reaching some people than others. Of course, when it does reach these people, it will too late for them to do much about it (at least in the short term -- and possibly ever, if the economy collapses).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
crikkett Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 06:15 AM
Response to Original message
30. local news says silicon valley unemployment ~ 14%
I heard this number in a spot covering the HP layoff announced yesterday. The number reported was 14.something%. I'm not good at remembering what I hear - but the reporter gave the number and then, how he calculated it, so I noticed. I haven't heard facts in a local newscast for a long time, it caught me off guard.

The press might really be snapping out of it.
:)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-20-05 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
31. even this sounds low to me
My personal experience suggests that underemployment is near universal among the lower income brackets.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Oct 24th 2014, 04:46 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion (Through 2005) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC