Looks like Arizona will easily be a blue state in 2004

[59millionmorons]

The 34 percent support for his re-election, with 44 percent preferring someone else and 22 percent undecided, reflects a dramatic plunge in popularity for Bush. In 2000, he beat Al Gore in Arizona by a margin of 6 percentage points, or nearly 100,000 votes of 1.5 million cast.

If the Democratic candidate holds on to all the blue states from 2000 Florida is not needed.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0925bush-poll-ON.html

[HERVEPA]

1. Naive Thinking

Election is a long time time away. This poll is so far out of of line with other state and national polls that it can't be taken as very meaningful, except as indication that the Schm*ck's becoming less popular in general. Seems like there there is a lot of naivite on many posts and a lot of shaky logic, (NOT THAT I DON'T HOPE IT'S ALL TRUE!!)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. O,K, Here's some more solid thinking

If John Kerry is the nominee AZ is definitely ours because of the help of John McCain whose kind words and all but official endordement of Kerry over the AWOL back-stabbing Bush.
Besides, AZ was close in 2000. A lot of "base" there to work with.
and I'm not hoping here cuz it's TRUE!

[wuushew]

2. You really see it trending democratic?

Arizona
winner declared Bush 715,112 51% 100% 9:00 p EST, 11/7
Gore 635,730 45% by county exit polls
Nader 41,937 3%
Buchanan 11,478 1%
Hagelin 1,054 0%


and 2002 election


times Eastern Standard


Race Status Candidate Vote Vote % Precincts Local Exit Poll

Arizona Governor
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Napolitano
499,284 46% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale voter survey results
Salmon
478,935 45%
Mahoney
74,568 7%
Hess
17,948 2%




Race Status Candidate Vote Vote % Precincts Local Exit Poll

Arizona 01
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Renzi
82,978 49% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Cordova
77,301 46%
Porr
8,684 5%
Arizona 02
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Franks
85,032 59% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Camacho
53,426 37%
Carlson
5,198 4%
Arizona 03
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Shadegg
(incumbent)
86,950 67% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Hill
39,845 31%
Yannone
3,172 2%
Arizona 04
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Pastor
(incumbent)
36,687 67% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Barnert
15,405 28%
Gibbons
2,688 5%
Arizona 05
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Hayworth
(incumbent)
86,191 61% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Columbus
52,192 37%
Severin
3,703 2%




Race Status Candidate Vote Vote % Precincts Local Exit Poll

Arizona 06
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Flake
(incumbent)
84,854 65% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Thomas
42,653 32%
Wagner
3,735 3%
Arizona 07
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Grijalva
53,929 59% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Hieb
33,806 37%
Nemeth
3,680 4%
Arizona 08
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ Kolbe
(incumbent)
112,872 63% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available
Ryan
60,536 34%
Duarte
5,520 3%




Measure Status Options Vote Vote % Precincts Local Exit Poll

Arizona 203:
Medical Use of Marijuana
updated: 4:29 p.m.
Full AZ No 554,475 57% 100% of precincts reporting votes by county or locale not available

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2002/pages/states/AZ/index.html

[ShaneGR]

4. Something to keep in mind

First off, that poll only surveyed 390 people. That's a pretty small amount. I'd like to see another one done with over 1000 respondents.

Second, the mere fact that Bush might have to fight for a state like Arizona is HUGE. He's already going to have a big fight on his hands over Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and Florida. Anytime we can force him to fight for state like Arizona or Georgia means A LOT.