Hurricane Dennis ain't lookin' good. I don't want another Ivan this soon!

[Brotherjohn]

I've been telling my kids that Ivan was a once in a lifetime storm (for a direct hit at any one place). Dennis might make me eat my words.

My house is right under that black line below.

[tk2kewl]

1. Batten down the hatches and hang in there.

[Boomer]

2. Stormy decades ahead

Since we're entering a cyclical upswing in storm activity AND doing so at a time when ocean waters are warming up due to climate change, that "once in a lifetime" hurricane will probably become a familiar event.

Take a deep breath, because this is the new "normal" weather.

[DisassemblingHisLies]

3. *hug for Brotherjohn*

I feel for ya - been there, done that many times. We're to the far left inside the projected path, & as you know, what they predict isn't always what happens.

In any case, we're sure to get some awful weather.

[uppityperson]

4. Will Gitmo be gotmo?

[Brotherjohn]

13. I was wondering that. Is Gitmo on that peninsula about to be swiped? nt

[amazona]

16. i read they are taking some precautions

I don't know how good the precautions are, but somewhere earlier today I read that an announcement is being translated into 8 languages so that prisoners won't be terrified when the storm shutters go up. Horrible to think of people being shut up, not knowing what is happening, unable to escape, one of these storms. I would hope that we are doing our best to treat the prisoners humanely and keep them informed of what is going on.

[Gruenemann]

22. No, Gitmo is near the eastern tip, not west. eom

[amazona]

5. no such thing as a "one in a lifetime" storm

Not even Andrew.

Keep an eye out and be safe.

[Brotherjohn]

20. I guess I meant "once in a lifetime" for that strong, at this exact...

... location (as a way of making my kids feel better).

I'm 43, and I went through Betsy in 1964 (or '65?), which was pretty much a direct hit on N.O. Then I went through Camille, but landfall was actually about 90 miles away in Mississippi. Then Andrew, but it was weakened by the time it hit me in Baton Rouge.

Then more recently, Opal, but it was 40 miles to the east. A few miles makes a huge difference with a strong storm. The catastrophic damage is limited to pretty much the core path of 20-40 miles.

Ivan was a direct hit on the FL/AL border, putting Pensacola right in the worst part (pretty much just to the outside of the eye wall, in the NE quadrant).

I guess I was hoping we wouldn't get that kind of hit for another decade or two, at least. We may yet avoid it, but so far, it's not looking good with Dennis.

[Dudley_DUright]

6. Sorry you are under the gun again BJ (and it is only the start of July!)

I spent a week in Pensacola while evacuating from Jeanne and I would hate to see you guys get hit again as badly as you got it from Ivan. However, this far out, those tracks can change quite a bit.

[bullimiami]

7. crap that looks like its right where it left off last year.

good luck up there.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. Is it too late to get out???

Please be careful.

[Brotherjohn]

26. Well, there's work (I can't just leave today). Although we've thought of.

... leaving tomorrow eveniong if need be.

But with hurricanes, that's a gamble. Inland hotels are already filling up. And if you go west or east, the hurricane could jog west or east, and you're just moving back into the path.

We have a strong building well inland (my office) with a generator. We can go there if it came to it.

[paula777]

9. What do you guys do in this situation? Do you get in a basement or

the bathtup or ? I've been in some terrifying earthquakes before, but with those, there is no planning. With hurricanes you have to sit and wait for the terror. Are you stocked up on water and food?

[Dudley_DUright]

11. Very few basements in FL

Some more modern homes have 1st floor hardened "safe rooms". You have to either board up and ride it out, or evacuate.

[ihaveaquestion]

15. Shut the shutters or board up the windows and evacuate.

Most damage is from flooding (near the shore) and wind. Neither of which you can do much about and you don't want to be in the house when they tear it up.

[paula777]

17. So what do you do? Go the the library or something? Where do you

evacuate to?

[amazona]

19. you evacuate 100 miles or more to the north usually

Go to the library? For hurricane Georges, I know people who evacuated New Orleans all the way to Nashville and Dallas. You evacuate to where they have available hotel rooms, of course. Unless you like camping on the side of the road, which isn't always the safest if the storm maintains strength overland.

The library idea doesn't make sense. Once the lights go out, you won't find much food or water in a library.

Evacuating has real costs -- you pay for gas to transport yourself, the hotel room and food, you miss the work so if you're by the hour you're short on your paycheck. Many people won't evacuate around here unless it's mandatory.

[paula777]

23. Well in the movies everyone goes to the library in a crisis

can't think of the movie - the one where the whole east coast froze over ... they said the library was the safest place to be. lol

[ihaveaquestion]

40. At least 100 miles!

I've heard several stories of Tampa / St. Pete folks (I'm from Tampa) going to hotels and shelters (schools) in Orlando last year for Charlie only to find themselves in a direct hit when Charlie turned earlier than expected! Orlando is only about 50 miles ENE of Tampa.

[amazona]

18. basement and bathtubs? You're thinking of tornados!

No basements around here, you'd be underwater and drowned in short order if there were, no doubt.

[Brotherjohn]

27. We rode Ivan out in the only interior closet in our house (a big closet).

Will probably go get some water and canned food tonight. My wife just called and said gas lines are already incredibly long, and some stations are out.

[paula777]

30. Good luck man, that sounds really scary.

[TX-RAT]

10. We go to Destin Fla every fall

It can't take much more of a beating than it's already had.

[seabeyond]

25. we go in the spring. i love destin n/t

[TX-RAT]

34. Do you stay off of Old 98?

We used to stay at the Frangista, but that was torn down 3 years ago, broke our hearts. You could step out the back door and be 50ft from the beach. We love it, no place like Destin.

Wheres your favorite place to eat?
Ours was Captain Dave's for evening meals.
The Whales Tail for breakfast.

[seabeyond]

49. right on the beach

we get a condo, family to do. did nerrvana ? the first year. hubby and i went to pensicola and got married unbeknown to the family, lol.

since has been destin. we have rented from a couple different places. there is a restaraunt down the way. can walk the beach to it. that is fun. captian cook the all you can eat? we do that one the last night of the trip. before then, wearing swimsuit an awfully lot. lol

havent been there last couple years. mother in law is trippin on akumal in mexico. we have another of those trips next march. i like destin better. more for the kids. way more

[madrchsod]

12. "broken levee blues"

keep your head above water brotherjohn

[Brotherjohn]

31. Luckily, we live at about ther highest elevation on the coast.

We're literally a stone's throw from Pensacola bay, but up on a bluff, and a few houses back. Most people don't even know there is that kind of elevation anywhere on the Gulf Coast at all (~75-100 feet).

So being back a few houses and behind a lot of trees, we're somewhat shielded from the wind. And the storm surge is no risk at all, even though it was 13 feet just below us.

I live less than a mile from where the I-10 bridge was demolished.

[Miami Liberal]

14. I hope Dennis doesn't affect you like Ivan did

We were pretty lucky last year in South East Florida but this being a just as busy hurricane season, I'm afraid we won't be so lucky this time around.

[denese]

21. as a fellow Floridian

I wish there was something comforting I could say.
Nothing you can really do to win in a fight with Mother Nature.
These things have been more and more unpredictable.
Last year one went out in the ocean, turned around in a big circle and came right back at us. Very scary.
Stay safe.

[seabeyond]

24. my brother and his daughter in mobile. 5 days out

we will see

i am not in that area. how is mobile in the scheme of things

[Brotherjohn]

28. Mobile is at real risk too. It's just a bit to the west, although further

... inland.

[funkybutt]

29. We're worried here in New Orleans too

And we've got the FIRST EVER democratic grassroots summit (in Lousiana) scheduled for Saturday. Been working on this event for months and everything printed has July 9 on it. We could be evacuating that morning instead of organizing.

www.beaucoupblues.com

I sure hope this thing stays to our east but this is just one track. Other computer models have it going straight up the Mississippi (which is a worst case scenario for those of us in the Big Easy

[Brotherjohn]

32. I hope N.O. never gets that worst case scenario. It's my hometown.

I'd hate to see the flooding it would cause. Plus my mom is very ill and they live on the West Bank (basically, surrounded by swamp).

I'd rather get it than have them get it right now.

[GumboYaYa]

37. No ill will to you BrotherJohn, but I agree.

The thought of one of those monsters getting into Ponchatrain and destroying my favorite city in the world is too much to consider.

All of you are in my thoughts and prayers. I've spent plenty of nights croughing in interior colosets myself and know first hand what is coming your way. Best of luck to you.

[Maddy McCall]

50. Yes, that's what I've been seeing.

I trust the computer models more than the NHC model, too. The latest-run computer model puts Dennis going through NO and SW Mississippi.

[Baclava]

51. The uncertainty principal at work...

If I had a volcano handy I'd be looking for virgins to toss...the Gods like young blood.

[Ilsa]

33. Is it Category 3 yet?

That's a bad mofo. I think the high pressure system over texas will push it away from our gulf coast and onto Florida's or MS or AL.

[Pithy Cherub]

35. My local weather wimp ( L.A., CA) just said sustained winds at 105 mph.

and the water is very warm...

Wishing everyone good luck & safety!

[ihaveaquestion]

43. Max Sustained Winds of 105 mph = Cat-2

It's still mostly over warm water and will gain strength in the Gulf, so Cat-3 and maybe Cat-4 by the time it gets to the mainland!

Better take a hike if you're in it's path!

Dennis-the-Menace indeed!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

[Baclava]

48. It is now a Cat 3 - 115mph

Lot's of things can still happen to its path...time to sacrifice some virgins, wish I had a volcano handy...

[peacebaby3]

36. I'm right across the bay from Mobile!

As BrotherJohn said, the worst weather is to the east of the hurricane. If the projection is right, it would put us directly to the west, but still a huge mess! The area I live in hasn't even recovered from Ivan yet and we just got through dealing with a direct hit from TS Arlene and being on the east side of Cindy. There are still tree limbs in my yard from this past Monday. Looks like the projected path is moving farther east though. Yesterday, it showed where I live directly east of the storm instead of west.

Everybody try to stay safe! This is just the first 5 weeks of hurricane season which lasts through November and if it stays like this, I may not survive because all of this makes me incredibly nervous and upset.

BrotherJohn, If you are right under that black line, then I know approximately where you live and I know you guys (at least the folks closer to the water) were devastated by Ivan and haven't recovered either. My thoughts are with you.

[Corgigal]

38. screw that

Just watch the news and if it looks like it's coming your way then pack the kiddies and your forms and move out of there. I'm in SC if you need some place to go. If we get taken out later in the season then I will hit you up.

Just leave, nothing to ride out. Screw that.

[Brotherjohn]

39. UPDATE to ALL: Change of plans! If the forecast holds, we're leaving!

If by tomorrow PM, it's still making a beeline for us and is forecast to be a Cat 3, we're outta here!

Thanks for everyone's concern.

[LizW]

41. Are you in Pensacola, Brotherjohn?

I read on another board that people are freaking out there. Lines at gas stations and grocery stores already.

We were supposed to go to Destin this Saturday for vacation.

I hate this for all you folks down near the Gulf coast. I know lots of places have not even begun to recover from Ivan. To get hit again is just unfair.

Stay safe.

[Brotherjohn]

42. Yep. I just went to get gas. Lines EVERYWHERE.

If you're coming to destin, I'd think twice... at least wait until tomorrow PM, and if it's still headed this way, reconsider.

If you live far inland and are driving, I guess you have a place to go back to if things are looking bleak, though.

[LizW]

46. We're in Birmingham

I'm taking a "wait and see" about the vacation. If it turns out not to be so bad, we might try to come on down on Tuesday or so.

Vacation is no big deal, though. We've been lucky in all the years we have been going down there to never have been hurricaned out until now.

My thoughts are with all of you folks who live in the coastal areas.

Keep us posted on how ya'll are doing if you are able to get online.

[Baclava]

47. Dennis up to Cat 3 - 115mph now...Plywood goes up tomorrow...

Beer and gas and ice...I ain't goin' anywhere.
My house has been through Opal, Erin and now Ivan without losing a shingle...maybe my luck will hold...I'm 3 mi inland in FWB.

[funkybutt]

44. Better book your hotel and get those reservations b/c

North Louisiana hotels have already booked up. Monroe and Shreveport are full already.

[peacebaby3]

45. I have family about 3 hours NE and will go there if it gets bad.

They will probably get some of the bad weather too, but hopefully not quite as bad. I just would really worry about tornados that come off of the hurricane up there. They can be really deadly as well.

The traffic may be really horrible. During hurricane Ivan, a 3 hr. drive took about 6 hrs. Really horrible. Hopefully they will make all 4 lanes of the interstate go N.

Like BrotherJohn, if it is still coming our way by tomorrow evening, I will leave also. In fact, they will probably call for a mandatory evacuation.

[ihaveaquestion]

52. Dennis is now a MAJOR Catagory 3

Max Sustained Winds = 130 mph !!!

At 131 mph it's a Catagory 4 - WOW!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/07...

[shawmut]

53. Almost a cat 4, winds up the 130mph

the pressure is dropping very fast, down to 951mb/28.07"