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A question on "job numbers". gwb doesn't say "unemployment is at

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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:02 PM
Original message
A question on "job numbers". gwb doesn't say "unemployment is at
Edited on Sat Jun-18-05 02:06 PM by BleedingHeartPatriot
an historic low", as his predecessor could.

However, his line is "More Americans are working today than at any time in our history."

So, how are the numbers reached?

For instance person A is working at a job, so it would make sense that person A counts as one "working American."

However, let's say person A can't make ends meet with the one job. So, person A holds down two other part time jobs.

So, if person A is working three different jobs, is he counted as 3 separate employees, since he fills three different employee slots?

So, he could actually count as 3 "working Americans" in bushworld?

This question is coming, probably obviously, from someone who has no understanding of the collating of data around economic indicators.

But, the odd turn of that endlessly repeated phrase just makes me wonder. MKJ
edited for spelling


:dilemma:
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. kicking, hoping for a DU'er savvy in economic numbers to clarify
MKJ
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
2. First the Rate
Generally if you want to find the percentage that some small subset is of a larger group you just divide the little number by the big number. So if there were 62 people in the nation and 5 of them were unemployed the rate would be 5 divided by 60 (move the decimal over 2 places), or 8.3%. So that part is pretty easy.

However the Government clouds the issue by restricting the number of people who are considered to be unemployed to those who are looking for a job. This makes sense in that your great grandmother may be part of the population but not actively enguaged in the workforce or likely to become so Now lets say that there are actually 70 people in the country but we are only considering the 62 of them that are potential workers. Next month two of the 5 people who did not have jobs give up and quit looking for a job, so now there are only 3 people who are considered unemployed and that gives you 4.8% unemployment. Oh, and never mind that three new people slipped into the neighborhood from the far far south during the last month because they don't count for anything at all.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Thanks, you explained that nicely. Please bear with me as I ask one
more. I really want to learn, and hope my lack of in depth understanding doesn't hinder my ability to ask about this information.

Is there an actual raw number of employed people in the country included in the calculations?

In other words the 62 people from your example...

take away the five people who don't have jobs.

To arrive at the number 57 working people, is the individual considered, or are filled employment positions counted? Or is that not even a relevant number in the jobs numbers?

I wonder, if it's based on filled jobs, rather than individuals working, if undocumented workers can then be included in that number.

Thanks.

MKJ

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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
16. No, they make the numbers up
Edited on Sat Jun-18-05 04:17 PM by bananas
The BLS doesn't use an actual count,
they do a statistical survey and make various
adjustments to guess the national average.
Also, they change their methods every few years,
so you wind up comparing apples to oranges.

Do some google searches for these words:
"U6"
"birth death model"
"seasonal adjustment"
"krugman"

Here's a sample link describing the "birth death model",
it also answers some of your other questions:
http://www.moveleft.com/moveleft_essay_2004_06_07_fake_...
...
This seems like an internal inconsistency for the May 2004 numbers, just as the Labor Dept.'s statement that the "Birth/Death Model" is a "small and stable" part of job growth, and yet accounts for 94% of new April 2004 jobs, seems like an internal inconsistency.
...
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kevinmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. Here is what he's doing.........
"More Americans are working today than at any time in our history."

True, of course there are more Americans by the size of the population than anytime in history.

He does the same with home ownership, as long as the population grows and there isn't another Great Depression, these statements can be made every year. Nothing but BS Spin.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Oops, there I go again, trying to ascribe some subtle extrapolation of
data to the numbers, when, in fact, it's just him being disingenuous.

Or, as gwb says, dis assembling. MKJ
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Kansas Wyatt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. And never mind the fact that Bush cannot even keep up with...
The population growth, when it comes to new jobs created in his 'Elite Booming Economy.' Those poor workers who lost their jobs and cannot find employment, will just have to go off the Government records, so it looks like things aren't really as bad as they are for working people.

Now, let's take care of this 'Elite Booming Economy' by flooding the remaining job market with cheap foreign labor, so this 'Elite Booming Economy' can rake in the money from both ends.

You say, 'what about those unemployed workers who are still out of work, who are harmed by this cheap foreign labor flooding across our border?' Heck, these alleged unemployed workers just don't exist, because they are off our Government records, that is why we need so many cheap foreign workers.

You say, 'what about the still employed workers whose wages have gone down?' Well, there is an abundance of workers in this 'Elite Booming Economy,' so until there is a shortage of workers, it's just a case of supply and demand. Now don't start talking about cheap foreign workers flooding across the borders, because they only do work that no American could afford to do, like construction, factory work, landscaping, service work, ....... Well, you get the point.

See how these greedy mother fuckers operate, and screw the majority of people in these REPUBLICAN Times?
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. But, but you make the current government sound cynical and manipulative
when, as the shining leader says..."more Americans are working..blah,blah,blah"

I'm now thinking that if one is working in America, it's not citizenry but location that defines a "working American".

Excellent rant, BTW. MKJ

:applause:
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hfojvt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:30 PM
Response to Original message
6. America's population is larger now than at any other time in history
That is the simple answer. It is the same thing as when the right says "JR Bush got more votes than any other candidate for President". They always pick a statistic which is true, but mostly irrelevant. They "use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamp-post, not as a means of illumination, but as a means of support."

They are like a bad car salesman. If the vehicle has low gas mileage, they will not tell you that. They will instead go on and on about the side panel air-bags, the hemi and its towing power, etc. They want to make a sale, not make a satistified customer.

I have been tracking not the number of employed persons, but the number of available jobs, which is the relevant number for the job seeker. Can they find a first or a 2nd job if they want one?

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) does track all kinds of things, including the number of people who hold more than one job.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Thanks for the link, I've added it my favorites
Edited on Sat Jun-18-05 02:39 PM by BleedingHeartPatriot
I will be using those numbers, if offered the "more people working now..." argument by RW co workers (who jump on lines like those and regurgitate them, endlessly).

The information on that site is easy to access and understand.

Thanks, again! MKJ

:yourock:

edited for spelling
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hfojvt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. glad to help
but what is Michael Jackson's middle name? Kevin? Karl? Keith?

RWers seem to be impervious to facts, especially if they are the kind to mindlessly repeat sound bites and spin points. Still, it makes me feel better to have them. Sometimes they will trump.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I know, but if the facts are coming from their beloved ruler's government
web site...maybe, they'll have a nanosecond of enlightenment before returning to their non cogitating states. MKJ

:shrug:

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FormerOstrich Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. Good points....
but there are also a bunch of people that thought they were retired but are now forced back into the work force because a) 401K/Market losses b) Health Insurance coverage c) Pension Plan issues

It's not the 90s anymore......
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hfojvt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. actually participation rates are lower than the historic highs of
the Clinton era. That is another factor which shows that the economy is not nearly as strong as a 5.1% unemployment rate appears.

A retired person should have their funds in more stable investments than the stock market, but these low interest rates also cut their income, perhaps even in real terms. Most of the retired people that I meet on the job have more retirement income than I make on my job, but they take a job anyway. They could not make it on my income, even though they have medicare and do not pay social security taxes. Go figure.
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Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 02:41 PM
Response to Original message
8. there is a net job LOSS right now.
just say that.
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oscar111 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. BOTTOM LINE is really the JOB SHORTAGE
it refutes instantly the RW repost of

PLENTY OF JOBS .. THE JOBLESS ARE JUST LAZY BUMS.

see sig for JS stat in detail
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kliljedahl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
14. There are more Murikans than ever before
More are working than ever before, but more are unemployed than ever before too. He doesn't mention that second point. Precentagewise is another story.


Keiths Barbeque Central


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Chicago1 Donating Member (560 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-18-05 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. In Bush world...........
they can't compute numbers. The unemployment numbers are so upside down, it's not even funny.

America's Work Stories
http://usaworkstories.blogspot.com
usaworkstories@aol.com
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