The OTHER Swing Vote

[rucky]

No matter what poll you choose to believe, I think we can all agree that the campaign is moving solidly to the center: Clark, Dean and Lieberman. Between the three front-runners, we've snatched up some support from the sought-after swing vote. We smell the blood, and I think there's a new surge of confidence that * can be beaten.

BUT

There's another factor to consider: As the campaign seems to focusing on picking up votes from the right, at what point do we start losing support from the left? As we saw in 2000, the Left can have a big effect on an election.

Questions For supporters of Clark & Dean:

How close to the center do you think your candidate is campaigning right now? How do you think that will shift in the general election?What's more important: Picking up the swing voters to the right, or locking up support from the left? Is it possible for your guy to get the swing voters from both sides?

Questions For Supporters of Kucinich, CMB, Sharpton:

If your candidate drops out tomorrow, who will you support? How far to the right of your views will you allow the nominee to campaign before you drop your support? Is there a single issue that is or would be a dealbreaker for you? Are you ABB? Is Nader an option this time? Not voting?

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. It is moving to the center

because it has to.

Now I will ask one important question... (insert candidate here) can it be worst than four more years of Bush?

[StephNW4Clark]

2. Clark Supporter Answer

First of all, thanks for posting such a timely and interesting question.

As a Clark supporter, I have found it somewhat surprising that he is so strongly identified as a centrist/moderate. He wrote a pro-affirmative action amicus brief to U of Michigan, is strongly for a responsible environmental policy, etc.

I think hard-core left wingers have difficulty seeing past the uniform. But I think "centrist" voters will find the military background comforting in the current time of crisis, and his liberal ideas will become secondary to them. To Democrats, I think they will see that his beliefs squarely belong in the liberal camp and a secondary consideration will be his military background.

Personally, if the current administration continues to handle things the same way for the next 18 months, I don't think Clark will need to shift the public's perception of himself or emphasize different traits. He'll just run as himself: a 4 star general with a strong belief in internationalism and a Democratic platform.

And if the race is tight - then I think Clark will concentrate more on the national security issue simply because it's the one area where people (apparently) still have some trust in the Bush administration. And I think he'll beat Bush there as well.

[rucky]

6. Good Analysis - thanks!

I put Clark in the center because that seems to be the common perception of him. It's interesting how "the uniform" is both gaining support from the right and losing support from the left at this stage. But I think the more we learn about him, that trend could reverse, but have the same end sum???

I put Dean in the center because that's where he puts himself. I put Leiberman in the center because he still claims to be a Democrat.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

3. Lieberman a front runner?

Right now, four months before any caucuses or primaries, he's coasting on name recognition alone with the general public. I don't know any actual Democrats (such as will be attending caucuses and voting in primaries) who have him as their first choice.

Anyway, if Kucinich drops out (and I think he will surprise the pundits with his staying power), Kerry and Gephardt are now tied for second place.

I'm not intending to start a flame war here, but in my personal opinion, Dean is style over substance, and Clark's entry into the race is being covered by the media so much (compared to the other entries), that it feels astro-turfy to me. (Remember, if you're trying to build name recognition, even negative publicity is better than no publicity.)

[Eloriel]

4. Anyone who thinks Dean is "moving" ANYwhere

isn't paying attention. He is what he is and isn't moving anywhere.

Eloriel

[rucky]

7. In that case,

do you fear a potential loss of support from the far-left as a factor in the general election?

For the record: I'm DK-leaning, love them all (but JL), and ABB

[JVS]

5. I am undecided

I have a number of Democrats that I will vote for. But if a candidate is unable to convince me that they are a real Democrat and they succeed in getting the nomination, then I will take that as a cue that I am no longer a real democrat and that the party is dead. I will then go 3rd party.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

8. This might be my last election as a Democrat

If the Democratic party continues it's long march rightward, with more corporate "free trade", more NAFTA, more outsourcing, more "New Democrats", more "Third Way", more DLC, more market fundamentalism, I'll probably just find some third party (probably not the Greens either).

If the Democrats continue to ignore average Americans, continues to fight on the other side in the class war, and continues to attack liberal, progressive, populist candidates like Kucinich, Nader, and Sharpton, I'll probably just bail.

This time, I'm in, I'll vote for Kucinich in the primary and whoever wins the nod in the general. Next time, probably not. Democrats better start dancing with the ones that brung you.

That's my bit of donkey slapping for Al!

[rucky]

9. You're not the only one

Expect to see a mass migration after the general election. Depending on who wins, it'll either be a migration to the Greens or a migration to Canada.

:crystal ball off:

[JVS]

10. I too am with you

[Deja Q]

14. Why not the Greens?

They're a bona fide group, surely?

You make a great argument and I tuned right into it (I support Kucinich, possibly the only true Progressive out there). If not the Greens, then who? I'll vote along with you, especially if there is something corrupt about the Greens that I am not aware of.

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

16. I prefer the Peace & Freedom party myself

The Greens are just too upper middle class for me. Don't get me wrong, I've met lots of Green party members and I like them, I don't think they are union-based enough.

[Capn Sunshine]

11. I guess I have to repeat myself: DEAN IS DIFFERENT BECAUSE

The unique thing about Howard Deans candidacy is the support: it comes from the "not on the radar , disaffected , haven't voted in 10 years" voter. These folk do not show up on a poll.They will confound the pundits when they turn out. They are the majority of eligible voters in the country. Every Dean function we have we poll the audience and one thing is VERY clear. Fully 40% of them have not voted, in the past election, in the past ten years,or ever, because they didn't feel motivated to do so.

Dean is the first candidate to come along and articulate what they are feeling, and this is why we are NOT concerned with any swing vote. Not when we have a pool of 66% of the eligible voters to draw from. Way better than 1/2 of 1 percent . And we are. This isn't happening with any other candidate.

Dean is what he is. What is not and will not be, is someone to pander to the swing vote. Add this to the funding model where we can use the populace to counter the effects of corporate lobbying (hell, we raised $ 348,000 this weekend, and we weren't even begging. Know what a lobbyist goes through for that kind of dough?)and you are seeing the new milleniums first real democratic candidate.

This campaign isn't about swing voters my friend. Its about YOU.

YOU.

YOU have the power to take this country back, and goddam it, that exactly what we're going to do. Now join up!

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

12. and as soon as Dean wins, he has no more use for them

That's when he veers to the right, where he's always been happier anyway.

[Deja Q]

13. Well, a move to suicide is a still a move to suicide, but

I will vote for Dean and pray his pseudo-puke ideals when it comes to corporations work out for all of us. My faith in, let alone my ability to like big corporations has eroded to such a point that they're guilty first, proven innocent later - which will never happen because they're evil. Big corporations control, there is no argument.

I will not vote for Lieberman. I'd rather vote for Pat Robertson, note my avatar...

I know nothing of Clark except he shares his name with a chocolate bar. What that says about him is unknown, but chocolate isn't good for one's health. Whatever that means.

[MasonJar]

15. The candidates

I saw most of the candidate's last May at Emily's List. There is not a one of them, including my least favorite Lieberman, that would not be infinitely better than stump. The thing we have to do is stop bashing the Dems; they are all we have because no green is going to beat Bush. I do not think that being a moderate on some issues and a progressive on others is a bad thing myself. What proof do you have that Dean or anyone else running is a phony? I believe that this time many of the candidates truly are worried about this country. It did not impress me that Gephart stood behind Bush, giving him legitimacy on the invasion of Iraq, but if he is the one y'all choose, I'll work my buns off getting him Bush's job. We need to help them bash Bush on every occasion. This cabal lives by the fear factor; let's start our own about the fate of America if Bush gets 4 more years.