Were Islamists Really Involved in the Events in Uzbekistan?
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MOSCOW. (Alexei Malashenko for RIA Novosti).
So, what really happened in mid-May in the Uzbek town of Andijan? It is still not known for sure how many people were killed in the riot. Nor is it known who had organized it and why. A correct forecast for the future of Uzbekistan and the rest of Central Asia largely depends on whether we can answer these questions correctly.
The Uzbek authorities, Russia and the USA claim that "the Islamic trail" is clearly seen in the events in Andijan. A "green revolution" in Uzbekistan and a total regional chaos are currently most popular "horror stories".
The subject of Islamists (what is meant in this case is those who act under the banner of radical Islam, not any particular party) has not arisen by chance because the Islamists are Uzbekistan's most energetic and radical political force. After the events in Andijan, however, they actually did not do anything or manifest themselves in some other way. This is why the question of their involvement in those events is now under discussion.
Evidently, the latest events showed that the Islamists turned out to be unprepared to lead the Uzbek resistance, although they had a chance to do this. They are unprepared to offer stiff resistance to Uzbek security services. Apart from that, if we return to the events in Andijan, we will see that no one backed the riot. Why? Perhaps, people are scared of Karimov, or the Islamists did not strive to lead the riot, or they did not have the time to do this because the authorities reacted very quickly and resolutely. Perhaps, we just overestimate the organizational possibilities of Islamic parties. It is one thing to spread leaflets, the way Hizb ut-Tahrir does in Uzbekistan, and quite another thing - to take the people to the streets. There are more questions than answers here.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20050608/40492652.html