Are Bush's Numbers Falling in the Right Places??

[Starpass]

I try to remind myself of something every time I see more of a slide in Bush's numbers. I'm very curious about two things (and any insights anyone has would be appreciated:

1) There were a hell of a lot of Dems who were part of Bush's post-9/11 90%-like approval rating and similar with the 70%-something when the first bombs dropped in Iraq. Is this just the 'coming home' of the temporarily wacked out Dems; and thus, we are just settling down to the ugly truth of what we saw in 2000--a country divided right down the middle (here we go again!) I take it that this is what a number of analysts have been saying.

2) There were states in 2000 that were won by a pubic hair. Minnesota was won by Gore by 2% or less of the vote. There were states like this for Bush. Now, using Minnesota as an example---are there still Bush-struck Minnesotans, enough to erase that 2% and have Bush take the state??---or are there enough Minnesotans who sobered up so that our candidate will take that state with a much wider margin next time?? Bottom line: are we gaining any red states that were borderline; are we losing any borderline blue states??? (I'm assuming that nothing has moved enough in the 'overwhelming' type of states to be reflected in these numbers (i.e, Dixieland).

I would feel a whole lot better if his numbers were 30% and tanking daily!!!!

[diplomats]

1. Bush's ratings drop has occurred among Dems, obviously

but more importantly, among Independents. I've seen a couple of polls where his approval is below 50 percent among Indies. As for his state numbers, there have been several posts here on polls in states like Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin that show him in trouble. Now Gore won those states, but as jiacinto said in another thread, it looks like the 2000 red state-blue state electoral map is reverting to form. I'm curious to know if we have a chance in states we barely lost in 2000, like New Hampshire. With Jeb Bush still around, we probably won't see Florida in the Dem column in 2004.

[Starpass]

3. My neighbor NH seems to be on a repuke fling

Still voting repuke in the midterms. Sent Sanunu (sp?) to Congress, etc. To me that says they are detriorating rather than coming around. Lot of rednecks up northern part who could use, and do, welfare but love their guns and da' troops. I would think that we would get more action in places like Portsmouth with the workers there------that's why I think we need someone who appeals to da' "boys" if we are going to break that state.

[Redneck Socialist]

8. NH is more libertarian than true pub...

This is a gross generalization of course, but there is a long history of "outsider" candidates upsetting the supposed front runner. McCain, Bucanon even Clinton exceeded expections to give himself momentum. Hart, Carter, this list could go on. My father, a lifelong republican, retired factory worker and veteran can't stand bush, thinks he is a dangerous lunatic. What's my point? If Bush can't count on the support of people like my dad he is in real trouble. New Hampshire's current congressional delegation might be for crap, but that is do more to a lack of good Democratic candidates than any inherent republicanism in the state. Conservative? Definately, but also very independent. Dean, Clark and possibley Edwards will do well here. Kerry is sinking fast.

[diplomats]

10. Welcome to DU!

And thanks for the anecdote about your dad. Did he vote for Bush in 2000?

[Redneck Socialist]

13. I'm not sure

but he probably did. We don't really discuss politics all that much since we disagree so often. That is why I thought it remarkable that he is now firmly opposed to Bush.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi Redneck Socialist!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[gristy]

2. The large Independent faction in the middle comes into play here

With chimpy screwing up left and right on so many issues, Dems, many Independents, and even few Repubs have already made their displeasure known in these polls. I believe that of the many who still back *, as few as 25% are die-hard go-down-with-the-ship Repukes. Everybody else is up for grabs.

on edit: get my verbage correct

[Starpass]

4. gristy--I agree

I always put that number at about 30%. But there are still those 20% who seem to hang in there with him. I think women (which is a lot of our base)have gotten over the "terrorist" hysteria and are coming back because they see this bastard and his regime and are afraid of what is coming up in the next four years. I think real key is getting into some of the white male vote---like in bluecollar guys who once were rapid Dem base and drifted over and then startd to listen to Rush. If we could only catch Rush with "another man", maybe they would budge..........naw, he'd explain his way out....

[diplomats]

6. The gender gap is reemerging

That Newsweek poll showed that.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. I think the day Nixon resigned he had something like a 24% approval rating

so, yes, there definately are some who are willing to go down with the ship...and the number seems about right...

[carpetbagger]

5. Iowa and Minnesota now both 49%

Iowa 49%: http://www.dmregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/22306371.html

Minnesota 49%: http://www.kstp.com/article/view/120135/

As to your wish of 30%, be careful what you ask for. I'd rather have a slow, painful tanking than a primary challenge that would either turn Bush around or replace him in the general election.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

7. Democrats have COMPLETELY disbanded Bushie and...

most independents and a handful of idealogical conservatives that have been dismayed at Bush like Ron Paul from Texas!

His numbers are falling all around!

[jiacinto]

9. It will depend on a lot of things

Bush's numbers have been falling steadily in states like IA lately. I do think we are returning to the split down the middle map that we had in 2000.

[Starpass]

11. jiacinto---what are you "feeling" in Florida

Well, not literally, that's your private business!!!---but, we all so thought the Dems would just storm the barricades in FL in 2002 and all we kinda got was a big "thud". Any stirrings, reawakenings, or just the usual???

[jiacinto]

15. Don't know yet

I've only been here a few weeks.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Re-elect number. Re-elect number. Re-elect number.

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It's at 42%. He's toast.

[TacticalPeek]

16. 42%???!!! Quick, KKKarl, book me an exclusive interview on Faux

so I can rescue myself.

:shrug:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. Could it get any safer?

Preaching to the choir ain't gonna get it done.

[Arugula Latte]

18. Let's not forget the Nader factor

Assuming we don't have a third-party entry on the left (or, even if we do, assuming fewer people will vote for him/her due to their desire to defeat Bush), that will make a few states less competitive for Bush. My state, for example. The Repubes are salivating over winning Oregon, which they only lost by 9,000 votes. They never mention the good 5% that went for Ralph. Particularly if Dean is the nominee, Bush won't have a shot in hell at getting Oregon. I sense a very, very strong pro-Dean bent here (I don't know about Clark yet). Multnomah County (Portland metro) will go for Dean in a big way. Toss in Eugene and a few of the coastal areas, and we will totally outvote the rural Repube parts of the state.

[Lexingtonian]

20. New Mexico

His reelect number there was polled at 40% about two weeks ago.

The ones that really matter are Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
West Virginia and Nevada are good too.

Nationwide W has been going down at a remarkably steady 1.5%/month from a (war fervor blip) high of 50.5% on March 10. Reelect polling differences from the nationwide number generally resemble each state's variation from the national average for Bush in the 2000 elections. (So, to estimate the current # for your home state within 1-2 percent, subtract 7.0% from the percentage he got in that election.)

Around 43% reelect W would lose an election narrowly- his personal approval ratings (honest, nice, well-meaning are all descriptions over 60% agree with) are presently too high to not get the best possible slice (about a third) of Undecideds- against a Democratic challenger with a solid Democratic base of 38%. Around 40% he would lose a big bloc of electoral votes. At 38% or below it's electoral college landslide time.

[DrBB]

23. And note the angle of attack that is heating up

Your last paragraph--

Around 43% reelect W would lose an election narrowly- his personal approval ratings (honest, nice, well-meaning are all descriptions over 60% agree with) are presently too high to not get the best possible slice (about a third) of Undecideds- against a Democratic challenger with a solid Democratic base of 38%. Around 40% he would lose a big bloc of electoral votes. At 38% or below it's electoral college landslide time.

--gets to the heart. These are the people Rove is relying on. Not deep thinkers, they want things to be okay so they can go on watching TV and drinking beer. The Homer Simpson vote, if you like. "W's a guy like me. I don't understand all this other stuff, but I understand that." //belches, pulls GOP lever.

That's where the real damage can be done--landslide damage--if the BushLies meme can get big enough in time. He's not a guy like you; he's the guy who lied to you, and people are dying in Iraq (a big mess) and losing jobs over here.

I note that now a third book is being added to the "right-wing lies" meme. David Corn's "The Lies of George W. Bush: Mastering the Politics of Deception," due out this month, along with a website: http://www.bushlies.com/

The increasingly unavoidable fact that Iraq is a debacle gives BushLies meme increasing traction. They have so many huge lies hanging out there that Iraq is threatening to undermine their credibility in a dam-breaking way.

Even more encouraging: Rove knows this. Hence the big "truth telling" exercise last week about 9/11. Hence the groundwork laid to leave Cheney hanging in the wind. They are positioning themselves--only if they have to--to jettison the "hard liners." Bush reported this week to be "reexamining the hardline" stance on Iraq, and preparing to go to the UN. What a concession! See what a reasonable guy he is! And guess what? according to today's NYTimes, he's going to adopt exactly the same beligerent, hectoring, arrogant
stance that got us into Iraq without international legitimacy: Bush to defend Iraq war at UN

In other words, it's all a pose (surprise!) but a highly revealing one, as it says so much about where Rove thinks his vulnerabilities are.

[DrBB]

21. Thanks for a great question

Incisively framed and produced some genuinely helpful and factual responses.

The kind of thing that I USED to feel predominated on DU, and why I came here. Now it almost feels like a blast from the past....

[HFishbine]

22. Oversimplified Reassurance

Starpass,

I appreciate where you are coming from. There are so many ways one can slice and dice the polls, that it's almost a futule exercise to look to them for an accurate snapshot of public opinion. They are more useful for spoting trends (which should be more encouraging).

But the bottom line is this: As you rightly note, Bush won by a pubic hair. Since taking office, do you think Bush has won greter support or has he lost support? Put another way, do you think Bush has done anything while in office to win over some previous Gore voters? I think not. On the other hand, he has done (and continutes to do) things that have alienated voters of all stripes. (Think record deficits, a blind-eye to the loss of blue collar manufacturing jobs, cuts to military pay and benefits, and the threats to civil liberties posed by the Patriots Acts).

My take is that Gore voters are not going to switch to Bush because of his dismal performance, and there are something more than a pubic hair's worth of previous Bush voters who will not support him this time around.