11 AM Isabel Update

[ringmastery]

Weakening to 140MPH.. Track is shifting west a tad. Looks like landfall in the Outer Banks at around 125-130MPH Cat 3 then slow weakening as it moves inland. One REALLY REALLY bad thing about this new western track is DC/Baltimore will get the right north quadrant of the Hurricane, which is the stronger and worst part of the storm.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/151438W5.gif

[Cush]

1. great

guess where I am? in the DC area

[demnan]

3. You aren't alone

If you want to post to a hurricane blog there's a post for that in the Meeting Room. Describe what you plan to do and when it hits we'll see if we can post before we lose power! I think this will be one to tell our grandchildren about.

[alfredo]

4. Bush will run to Crawford

leaving the responsibilities and risks to others.

[BrotherBuzz]

11. Yeah, but does Cheney's

undisclosed location bunker have a sump pump?

[11 Bravo]

8. I'm in Fairfax

and Izzy looks to be headed for my front door.

[Cappurr]

2. Oh Man....

I know this kind of path. Its coming here. South Jersey. Betcha anything. And I live about six miles from the ocean. Actually, we have both the ocean and a bay and the whole island could be evacuated. I live on the mainland, so evacuation here is less likely.

[meegbear]

5. I'm in Boston ...

we haven't had a hurricane here since Bob in 1991, not counting the "No Name" storm that October (also known as "The Perfect Storm").

I got a feeling it's gonna hug the coast and hit us. We're due.

[Cappurr]

6. Yeah...

Thats what I think. It'll hit somewhere around Hatteras then hug the coast right up to us. Only question is how weakened it will be and how far the eye is from the coast.

[Beetwasher]

13. I have a feeling it's coming further North too

Tri-state area...Don't know why, just a gut thing...

[Mandate My Ass]

15. That's my feeling too-I think it'll hit New Jersey

And my sump pump is not up to the task of Isabel.

[soleft]

16. Hey Capurr

My parents used to have a house 3/4 mile in from Ocean but they moved inland a few miles in May. Glad for that. Good luck.

[Bozita]

7. Will Cheney's bunker flood?

Inquiring readers want to know.

[nostamj]

9. that Yellow track scares me...

I remember when NYC was "staring down the barrel of a gun" about 20 years ago. NOTHING happened (thank god) but...

it's going to be wet and windy for sure. really worried about VA (got a brother and his family in Williamsburg area)

[soleft]

19. You talking about Hurricane Gloria

I was living in Jersey City and I stayed up all night waiting for her to arrive like the Great Pumpkin.

At 5:30 in the morning they were like, Hurricane Gloria will be here in one hour.

At 6:00, they said, Hurricane Glorida will be here in a half hour.

I fell asleep around 6:15, when I woke up they said, Well, that was hurricane Gloria.

[SaintLouisBlues]

25. Hurricane Gloria 16th most powerful 'Cane to hit he US in the 20th Century

According to NOAA's site, which surprised me. I lived in Boston at the time (1985), but I've had nothing
to compare it to before or since.

More died in tree trimming accidents than from the storm, although we had gusts approaching 100mph.

[Renew Deal]

31. I lived on LI.

My story is different. It was a violent mess. Thankfully my house was fine, but it busted up the area. I don't even think it was as bad as it could have been. This one seems nastier. I still can't believe that it was the 16th most powerful.

[goobergunch]

38. That track goes right over Philly

:scared:

DOWN WITH THE BAMM!

[Mairead]

10. I was wondering why it's so hot and damp here in western Mass!

Hot, humid weather is totally inappropriate for mid-September, but the penny didn't drop til now that it's a side effect of the hurricane.

I can recall a big hoo-hah shortly after I moved to the Boston area in the '80s -- there was going to be a BIG HURRICANE! It was going to HIT BOSTON! So I taped up my windows and did all the other stuff, took my cats downstairs to spend the night in the cellar under a sturdy workbench...

...and nothing. Warm, heavy rains, some wind. Some flooding on the Cape. The lights flickered once. Took me forever to get the sticky tape residue off the curséd windows.

[AlabamaYankee]

12. I'm heading for Central Pennsylvania Wednesday

Talk about bad timing. I've got family things to take care of in Central PA (anybody remember Agnes in '71?) and DC. Looks like it's going to be a wet trip.

[diplomats]

24. I live in southcentral PA and remember Agnes well

I think it was 1972.

[Palacsinta]

29. Yeah....'72

Rained and rained and rained......water came up to the middle of our backyard (in Lancaster County) and we're not even close to a stream or river.....there was just no place for the water to go. The devastation from the flooded Susquehanna River, up and down the state was incredible, and those areas took years to recover.

[Brotherjohn]

14. Anyone from Chesapeake area have any idea what would happen if ...

... the eye or NE quadrant of the storm went right up the Bay?

Would the storm surge/winds cause huge flooding in the Chesapeake?

I'm from New Orleans, originally. The big fear there is that one day, a major hurricane will shoot up the mouth of the Mississippi. This will flood the city from the South. Along with this, the worst winds (from the East) will dump half the Mississippi Sound into Lake Ponchartrain, flooding the city from the North.

I realize the Cheaspeake Bay is much larger (and deeper) than Lake Ponchartrain, but would a similar thing happen... wind pushing the ocean up into the bay, causing tremendous flooding?

[JHB]

18. In a word: yes.

How bad depends on how much.

[magnolia]

26. I'm on the Cheasapeake Bay.

I am currently at our weekend home on the Chesapeake "battening the hatches". (We live in Richmond.) I can't tell you what would happen if the hurricane went up the bay, because it has never done that before. They say it's because the water is too shallow and won't hold it. Hurricane Bob went directly over us, fortunately too hight to do structural damage. But...who really knows. Even if we are not directly hit here, the high tides can still do incredible damage. So YES the bigger fear is the flooding.

Believe it or not, Pat Robertson of 700 Club actually thinks he, with the help of God...has kept hurricanes from doing damage to Virginia Beach, which is at the mouth of the Chesapeake. I think it's his evil character that attracts hurricanes our way!!! Then we have Norfolk...major military. God could get a two in one shot!!!

[Brotherjohn]

27. I didn't know a hurricane could maintain so long inland until Danny...

...in our area a couple of years back.

It was the strangest thing. It came "inland", actually entering Mobile Bay, and stayed there for at least a full day, and DID NOT WEAKEN! It maintained 80-90mph winds and just sat there.

And Mobile Bay is undoubtedly shallower, and smaller, than the Chesapeake. Parts of it you can walk across, and parts were drained dry during the storm. The winds just pushed the water out (and flooded other parts). The east shore of the bay got some 40 INCHES of rain in 24hrs.

So I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the storm shooting up the Chesapeake. It probably hasn't ever happened b/c you're so far north (less storms on average), and just because you're talking about hitting a bullseye on a dartboard, from a geographic standpoint. It's one thing to strike the immediate area of the mouth of the bay (which has probably happened), but it's another to do so at such an angle that it goes right up the bay. A hurricane has never, to my knowledge, head up the mouth of the Mississippi either, but it will happen some day. And the Chesapeake is a wider target.

[Renew Deal]

34. Angle of the storm is "unique" and similar to Gloria.

Supposedly the angle of approach for this storm is unique. I read that somewhere. It is almost the same path as Gloria.

[magnolia]

35. I don't rule out anything!

I'm just hoping that it doesn't come up this way. At the moment it's slowing down and breaking up just a tad. Can't let our guard down yet, but it's something.

[Blue_Chill]

17. I'm in Fairfax county

and I don't believe it. I hear "bad weather's a comin" all the time from the weather man and it almost never comes true. 5 bucks says by the time it gets here it's little more then a strong humid wind.

(OK so maybe that's just wishful thinking :D )

[Cush]

20. another Fairfax'er

and I know what you mean, in this area, the slightest shift can change things. Ex: Snow Storms, how many times have they said 'snow is coming' but a slight changed caused it to miss. (of course, we can exlcude this past winter)

[Cheswick2.0]

32. Hi, is your name for Ethiopia?

Did you know Cush is the ancient or biblical name for Ethiopia? Is that why you chose it?

In any case, welcome to DU.

[GumboYaYa]

21. It is easy to believe that you will not get hit

given the number of false alarms from the past.

From someone who has waited out four hurricanes in the past, if two days before landfall it looks like it is headed your way, get the F out as fast as possible.

If you are accustomed to Category 1 and 2 storms, a 4 or greater will blow your mind. I can vividly remember thinking our house was going to crumble in Andrew. It was like someone was ramming our front door with a log every few seconds. 170-200 mph wind gusts put unimaginable stress on a house.

Good luck to everyone in the path of this storm. If it stays its current strength it will be horrendous where it hits directly.

[Brotherjohn]

23. Where were you in Andrew? I was way up in Baton Rouge, and...

... the sustained winds were still 90-100mph. I can only imagine what it was like down in Cocodrie, or worse, in Homestead (I saw the devastation there a month after, and it was unbelievable).

[GumboYaYa]

30. We were outside BR too.

BR got it worse than New Orleans in Andrew. I remember the wind pounding our doors relentlessly. I had been in the heart of several 1s and 2s before. The outskirts of Andrew were much worse than any 1 or 2 I had experienced.

I was in Camille too, but I was too young to remember it. My grandparents say it was the worst storm they ever experienced.

I agree 100% with BrotherJohn's advise eslewhere on this thread. The best place to be in a hurricane of this strength is as far away as possible.

[Brotherjohn]

22. Tips on taping windows and evacuating (from a hurricane veteran).

Being a longtime hurricane veteran (from N.O., now live on the Florida coast), I thought this might help. I've been through Andrew (in La.), Opal, Camille, Betsy, and numerous other pretty scary storms.

TAPING WINDOWS:
They recommend these days that you DON'T put tape on your windows. It's not likely to stop them from breaking. The main risk of window breakage is flying debris, and tape's not gonna stop that. It might hold a couple of pieces together if they break, but would you rather be hit by a larger piece of glass?

Basically, they recommend using plywood, and/or just getting the hell out. If a hurricane strong enough to shatter your windows is hitting, you should already:

A) Have left town
OR
B) Be hunkered down in an internal room with no windows.

EVACUATION:
If it looks like this storm is going to hit your area and it's going to be a Cat 3 or higher, you may want to evacuate. If so, DON'T WAIT until the last minute to evacuate! If you're out on the coast of NC or VA (and you think your house isn't safe; that's up to you), I'd start packing and leave by tomorrow... even if it's just to a safer house in town or a hotel a little inland. The storm will likely hit Thursday morning. By Wednesday, all the main roads away from the coast will be clogged to a near standstill.

I learned this the hard way, trying to evacuate Pensacola less than a day before Opal struck in 1995. I went to bed and it was headed a little away from us, and only 110-120mph. I woke up and it had turned a bit towards us (doesn't take much) and strengthened to around 140mph. I got the hell out, but it took me 8 hours just to drive to New orleans (usually takes 3.5), and about 2-3 of that just to get out of Pensacola! I had to use a map and take little state roads to avoid the Interstates, which were clogged. Opal had weakened somewhat before it made landfall (to about 120mph), but the winds on the highway while I was still trying to make it out were pretty scary (I'd guess around 40mph, two states over in Mississippi).

Again, just my opinion, but if Isabel was making a beeline for my town, still at 120mph or above, and I was within 10-20 miles of the coast, I'd get out by tomorrow. You may evacuate for nothing, but it's a once in a blue moon kind of thing you can tell your grandkids about. Better to overreact than to be trapped in your car or at home with 135mph winds outside. You just have to decide how likely that is and whether you want to risk it.

Of course, if you're RIGHT ON the coast, at or near sea level, and in Isabel's path... GET THE HELL OUT!!

[cycleberg]

28. Hope everyone makes out ok ...

If you are even close to sea level, be careful. In 2001, that little storm, Alison, dumped 36" (!) of water on us in Houston in 3 HOURS. The water was in the door, ankle deep, then waist high by the time we got our stuff up, cats collected, necessaries packed and evacuated. I had grown up in that neighborhood and it had never flooded there as far as we could or anyone there, could remember. Of course we weren't prepared, never occurred to us that being 50 miles inland we'd have any problem...never had a problem even with the deluges Houston always has.
o well. always an adventure.

[TrogL]

33. What are the chances of damage in Southern Ontario?

My mother lives there.

[Brotherjohn]

36. Not much. It will weaken a lot before making it there.

Intellicast has a graphic reflecting the estimated wind speeds all the way up there.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack3&prodnav=none&pid=none

While it still may be at Tropical Storm strength (maybe as high as 50-60mph), that's just a major wind storm, and the path for those winds would be fairly narrow. It would likely be breaking up by then.

She should keep an eye on what happens after it comes inland. But unless the center passes right through her neck of the woods, she'll likely just have a couple of stormy days. Even if it does pass right over her, she'll just have to stay inside during the worst of it.

[TrogL]

37. OK thanks

I'll tell her