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S/S and personal investing: A cautionary tale.

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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:18 AM
Original message
S/S and personal investing: A cautionary tale.
Or, Confessions of a Former Millionaire.

In 1998, I became a millionaire. Not cash in the bank, but total assets.
It didn't hurt that we'd bought our waterfront home in more affordable south Alabama during a 2 year lull in price increases in 1993. In five short years the place was worth about three times what we paid for it.
I'll take lucky over smart any day.

The corporation where I had worked for over 30 years had, several years before, changed their employee retirement plan from a "defined benefit plan" (a guaranteed monthly check every month for the rest of my life and that of my wife) to a "defined contribution plan". Beginning in the early 80s they put a percentage of my salary into what was basically a glorified money market fund. As a result, when I decided to retire in 1998 there was a sizeable six figure nest egg there. I would still get a small monthly pension from what my time in service had "earned" prior to the plan changeover. Thank god for that.

When I left the company I received a lump sum from the defined contributions account. Now it was mine to invest however I saw fit. I was not a novice. Over the years I had made various investments, including some pretty risky stuff. Common stocks, precious metals, and even commodity futures. Overall I'd done pretty well in most of these ventures.

I took the lump sum and opened an IRA brokerage account. This gave me the most flexibility as to what kinds of things I could invest in. Within the account, over a period of a couple of months I bought shares in 8 or 9 mutual funds. Most were with Janus. I thought I was pretty well diversified, although I did notice there was some overlap in stocks owned in the various funds. We were all drinking the dot.com Kool Aid back then.

When the markets, and especially the dot.coms, began to tank, I held on. Janus still painted a bright picture for tech stocks. Computers and computer related companies were not going to just go away, in fact more and more people and corporations were buying computers and related gear. Janus trumpeted that they were now able to pick up more shares of the dot.coms for pennies on the dollar. We were all gonna be rich. Sounded reasonable to me. I considered myself to be a seasoned old hand at this.
I continued to watch my assets dwindle.

At one point, prior to the market decline, I'd handed over about 20% of my money to an investment advisor. He seemed to be a really sharp young guy with some innovative investment ideas to further diversify my holdings. My wife, who is a far better judge of people than I am, was enthusiastic about his plans. It was hard work being my own "investment advisor" and nothing would have made me happier than to turn to whole thing over to someone whom I trusted AND who could provide a reasonable return.

Anyway, as the market began, and then continued, its decline I continued to hold on "for the long haul".
And held...and held.
Finally, when the money I managed was down by a third, and the money the bright boy had was down by a half, I pulled the trigger, fired him, and sold everything. It was damned painful.

Now I am the most conservative investor you've ever seen. I don't think I'll ever own another mutual fund or share of common stock again. I invest in various solid, conservative debt instruments that actually pay INTEREST!

Oh, we're still doing OK. Still paying the mortgage and buying groceries. But the money we'd planned on for travel, or a new car, or remodeling the bath, or replacements for some of our garage sale furniture, etc. just isn't there any more. We count our pennies.

Oh, and I'm no longer a millionaire. :-(

This is why I'm not in favor of "private" accounts for Social Security funds.
Whatever happens probably won't affect me. I've been collecting my monthly check for over a year, and I don't know what the hell we'd do without it. We also count the days until Miz t. is eligible.
Just my two cents worth.
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oneighty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. Experience talks.
Take heed young ones. Listen watch and learn.

Green dollars today useless paper tomorrow.

180

Hey Trof!
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Hiya bub.
:hi:
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two gun sid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
3. A great lesson for all of us.
Folks, there is no free lunch. We can't all be millionaires. Don't believe the people in the financial industry. 50 yrs ago, these same people were aluminum siding salemen.
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oneighty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Proof?
Do you have a link? All Aluminum siding salesmen? I have a few friends did that. They are very happy now with Social Security.

180
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two gun sid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. I was trying to make an analogy about professions that....
Edited on Sun Feb-27-05 11:56 AM by two gun sid
are known for a high degree of corruption. Not that all financial advisors are crooks or all aluminum siding salesmen were hucksters. My point was that people should not believe all the boosterism of "private accounts". When ever money is involved you should be especially careful with whom you deal.

Now, how can I contact your aluminum siding selling friends?
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oneighty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. I thought I was misreading
you two gun sid. (Sorry). One siding man is dead and the other gave up siding for a real job with a railroad. He took his most excellent RR retirement along with the returns from an unfortunate but lucrative accident and is now a fulltime freeper; anti-everything.

By the way; Twoguns is a family name in these here parts. Indian acquaintance of mine some years ago was 'Johnny Twoguns'. An unlikely but true name.

180
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two gun sid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. My hyperbole sometimes muddies...
my point. You have no reason to be sorry, my progressive friend, I took no offense. Discussion groups are sometimes rough and tumble. I am old enough to have grown a thick hide of alligator skin on my ass. Besides, all you asked for was some documentation of my statement. That is the right way to challenge someone.

I have read your posts before and enjoyed them. Yesterday's post about veterans being tools was especially good.


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oneighty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Well thank you
two gun sid!

180
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
4. Excellent write up!
This is what I'm talking about.

The RW spin on this stuff is based on urban
legends of someone somewhere making big $$$
on the market.

What they *don't* tell you... Is the few who
ever did that...

1) Started off with a whole lot.
2) Had no dependents.
3) Ate broth.
4) Didn't live a normal well-rounded life.

It's important for people to realize... Social
Security is *not* an investment. It is a payment
to keep a roof over the heads and food in the
stomachs of people who've earned it.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
6. My father got a lump sum, my mother had stashed away a
fair amount of money and took the monthly pension check.

We talked about it; I told them only idiots put the money they need for retirement in risky investments. My dad got a ton of bonds, this was in the mid '80s. Wound up locking in 10% interest or more for a long time. By the early/mid '90s many of his bonds had matured, and his earnings were decreasing. After they moved to Arizona in '96 he listened to my mother and went for stocks and mutual funds with higher yields--therefore higher risk.

I'm 45; I can still invest in fairly risky things. If I lose it, I have a while to recoup; it's worth the gamble. When I'm 55, I pull out of risky investments when I can. If the market's in the toilet, I pretty much sell off stocks that haven't slumped, and I wait a couple of years before selling the others (since there's little chance of further losses) to try to recoup. When I retire, I'm in the safest investments I can find.

This was common knowledge in the '80s. "We", including my parents, forgot it in the '90s.
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. You got it.
The younger you are, the more risk you can afford.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's a rigged game
and the advantage is with the house, not with the small investor. Small investors are generally not worth the fees they generate and therefore not worth giving the soundest advice to, let alone those hot tips and rumors that large investors enjoy.

Small investors who buy blue chip stocks and generally ignore the advice of whatever broker they use will do the best, but even this is no guarantee. They'll still read a glowing propspectus from Harken or Enron or World Com and get taken by a bunch of sharp dealers who are selling their own stock off to the small investor, getting out while they can.

I once read an interesting statistic, although I have no attribution. It said the sharp small investor can realize an average of about 2% growth per year, if he's very lucky. The best investment bankers can realize a maximum of 6% per year, on average. Congressmen average 12% per year.

That should tell you everything you need to know about how and why the markets are the way they are, and why nobody is particularly interested in cleaning the whole thing up.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I read those or similar statistics as well...
But, my favorite investing story to date is
where they took some top brokers, a class of 4th graders,
and a monkey and had them pick stocks.

Guess how it turned out?

The 4th graders were second...
The brokers were last.

The monkey was ahead!

At a follow-up a while later.

The 4th graders had pulled into the lead.
Monkey second.
brokers last.

I don't think any of them broke 6% though.

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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. Some reasons...
I'm still looking for why the monkey I'm thinking of
came out ahead... But, here's why a sure thing S/S
always beats out a "managed fund".

First, experts cost a fortune while the monkey is paid peanuts.

Second, the monkey picks stocks randomly then holds them, while managed funds trade continuously in a futile effort to find the best stocks.

This increases the taxes and brokerage commissions for managed funds.

These costs are invisible to you since funds decline to report them.

But they take a big bite out of your returns.
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
11. An ironic addendum to my tale of woe.
When I called the bright young man to tell him the ride was over, he sounded like he was gonna cry.
He was SO sorry.
He offered to manage my account at no charge for a year.
I said "No thanks".

And here's the "adding insult to injury" part.
He billed me every quarter for "managing" my account. I think it was about 1.5% (annually) of whatever the worth of the portfolio was. Naturally as the worth decreased, so did his fee. But, in effect, I was paying him to lose money for me. I told him I could lose it for free.
;-)
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pansypoo53219 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
13. no no no
the young KNOW they can do better.

Wdiots.
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Cleita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
14. I wonder how many of you are out there, who benefited from
the Clinton Administration's economic policies, and are now watching their assets shrink investment by investment under the Bush Administration's economic policies. I know that I'm facing some austere times, but can get by as long as they don't destroy Social Security and Medicare. If they do then.......

Also, I'm considering putting whatever assets I have under the mattress. (Just kidding.) I am seriously thinking of putting my savings in another country. I don't feel the dollar is safe anymore.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. You could do worse...
"I'm considering putting whatever assets I have under the mattress."

And I'm *not* kidding. ;)

Trip to Vegas, anyone?

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Cleita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Could we go to the French Riviera and Monte Carlo instead?
I so do not care for Vegas.
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proud2BlibKansan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Feb-27-05 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
16. Same thing happened to my mom
She retired in 1990 with a portfolio worth a million dollars. Now it is worth about 20-30% less than that. She hasn't touched it, her pension is adequate to meet her needs.
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