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A CIA report predicts that American global dominance could end in 15 years

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obnoxiousdrunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:32 PM
Original message
A CIA report predicts that American global dominance could end in 15 years
Who will be the first politician brave enough to declare publicly that the United States is a declining power and that America's leaders must urgently discuss what to do about it? This prognosis of decline comes not (or not only) from leftist scribes rooting for imperialism's downfall, but from the National Intelligence Councilthe "center of strategic thinking" inside the U.S. intelligence community.

The NIC's conclusions are starkly presented in a new 119-page document, "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project." It is unclassified and available on the CIA's Web site. The report has received modest press attention the past couple weeks, mainly for its prediction that, in the year 2020, "political Islam" will still be "a potent force." Only a few stories or columns have taken note of its central conclusion:

The likely emergence of China and India ... as new major global playerssimilar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th centurywill transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.
http://slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2112697&
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. I think 15 years is streaching it.
I think if bush keeps moving his agenda forward it will be more like 2 - 3 years.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
29. Project for a New American Century over shot by 93 years.
I agree.....taken in its entirety, I'd say our country has been short sold by Bushco for the past 30 years. The firesale's just about over. When they're finished, the carcass will have been picked clean.

But it's not treason.
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justinsb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. 15 years is very optomistic n/t
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Mojambo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
3. Look to Europe as the model
No longer globally dominant, their PEOPLE are actually healthier, wealthier, and better educated.
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
56. Agreed. We went to Sweden this summer.
We spent most of our time in Stockholm. The city was beautiful. The people were - beautiful. Everywhere you looked, there were attractive, slim, healthy people out walking, riding their bikes. Even old people looked great. I kept pointing at them; just couldn't believe elderly people with hourglass figures.

The grocery stores were awesome; filled with delicious, healthy food. Not nearly as much crap as we have here. Oh, there was junk food, but it wasn't as much.

Everyone has health insurance and free dental in Sweden. They have a good life over there. Meanwhile, here we have 45 million Americans without insurance.

The key is to look at the people. And we liked what we saw.
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Rockerdem Donating Member (706 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #3
57. How can you say that?
The US is growing around 3% a year. Europe 1%. China 8%. Its just a matter of time and math. Scary.
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
4. It's already over, guys.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
5. They're "predicting" what has already happened
This country is nothing but a big, empty bubble supported by hot air and wishful thinking. Our strategic industries have been looted. We are the biggest debtor nation in the world, and with so little we use being made domestically, this is not going to change. The population, denied adequate health care even if they have insurance, is getting sicker.

The only thing this country has left is an oversized imperial military. Since the military us utterly dependent on components made overseas, from cloth to boots to bullets to electronics, even a modest trade embargo would end even that.

The only thing the CIA is successfully predicting is the length of time it will take the average moron to realize what has already happened.
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CrispyQ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #5
16. Agree with you completely!
Especially this: "The only thing the CIA is successfully predicting is the length of time it will take the average moron to realize what has already happened."

I can't even imagine the whining when they wake up & realize what their complacency has brought them.
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rockymountaindem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #5
22. That's not entirely true.
US imports account for only 8% of our economy, whereas in countries like Canada they are around 30% and in small countries like Belgium imports account for over 60% of the national economy. We still have more power of industry than you realize, I think.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #22
31. A good part of your imports from Canada are essentials...
like gas, oil, electricity, water. Regardless of the state of the US economy, the US will have to continue to import those essentials which means we are somewhat insulated re US position in the world, it's economy, etc.

Many countries, including Canada, are signing major trade agreements with China, Japan, etc, which will also mitigate what will happen in the US from affecting the rest of the world.
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xpat Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #22
38. You're dreaming
If a Chinese treasury official gets up on the wrong side of the bed, the US economy is road kill.
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proud patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. I give it 10
and it pisses me off to think that all the bush
voters think bush is doing the correct thing
to be a STRONG America , when bush is actually
weakening our Country . Man it Pisses me off .
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #6
54. Bush is hastening our demise......
By gutting our coffers and going out on a treasure hunt in the Middle East, they are just speeding things up much quicker.

Without Bush, we could have reversed the slide into insolvency. But as it is, we are now very much like the Soviet Union before it toppled. It spent proportionately more and more on military buildup, at the expense of social programs.

Sound familiar?

The worst part about the BeelzeBush administration is that while they're out looking for treasure in Iraq, the US's most valuable asset, creative talent, is packing its bags and looking for another venue. The 'brain drain' is real. Really talented people who could get us out of this mess, feel that this has become a bad place to live in. They look on the horizon, and see Europe, India, even China and Japan calling. They're outta here.

Does anybody believe Rumsfailed, Wolfowitz and others would ever recognize this?
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
7. They are about as far off on the end ot the American Empire as they were
on the end of the Soviet Empire.
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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
8. They are finally looking at the bigger picture.
Well let's see... since Bush has been in office, what has happend in the rest of the world. You'd almost think they wanted things to go this way, the way they have played the hand that has been dealt them.
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JoshK Donating Member (112 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
9. The sooner the US empire collapses, the better. It's the monster
of today's world -- a completely corrupt society, detached from reality, desperately seeking to compensate for its declining economic strength by direct military conquest.
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LynnTheDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
10. GOOD.
GOOD GOOD GOOD.
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knowbody0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. you think like i do very often
it freaks me out a bit
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LynnTheDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #11
20. LOL!!!
Dunno if *I* should be worried now! :D :D :D
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knowbody0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. stay calm--i am old
-
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Blue_In_AK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #10
44. DITTO. I'm tired of us being IT...
It would be lovely to live in a little shy, retiring, PEACEFUL country where people could just kick back and watch the rest of the world duke it out.
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
12. The sooner the US dominate is finished -- the better
absolute power corrupts absolutely -- and we are seeing the proof in our life times.

Absolute power can manipulate the election

Absolute power can tell whatever story is convenient -- so what if no one in the the world believes the story -- except a few brown shirts.

I don't see the US as a positive power -- And the US didn't start out on a positive foot either -- the land of the US was stolen from the original occupants.

There has to be a balance of power -- so that no one country is supreme. Just as there has to be a balance of political parties so that one party is not dominate in all branches of the government.
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Ezlivin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:47 PM
Response to Original message
13. Coincidental with Peak Oil?
We've got global warming ("climate change" in Bushspeak), Peak Oil, rising deficits and now this. All of these things are due to severely affect us within 15 years.

If I were still a fundamentalist, I would be readying myself for the rapture.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #13
47. Yep, very much so, why we crossed the rubicon
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DistantWind88 Donating Member (695 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
14. Read the report
It doesn't say that at all. It DOES say that CHina and India will become more important playes on the world stage, but it doesn't say the US is a "declining power."

From the report: "Over the next 15 years the increasing centrality of ethical issues, old and new, have the potential to divide worldwide publics and challenge US leadership. These issues include the environment and climate change, privacy, cloning and biotechnology, human rights, international law regulating conflict, and the role of multilateral institutions. The United States increasingly will have to battle world public opinion, which has dramatically shifted since the end of the Cold War. Some of the current anti-Americanism is likely to lessen as globalization takes on more of a non-Western face. At the same time, the younger generation of leadersunlike during the post-World War II periodhas no personal recollection of the United States as its liberator and is more likely to diverge with Washingtons thinking on a range of issues.

In helping to map out the global future, the United States will have many opportunities to extend its advantages, particularly in shaping a new international order that integrates disparate regions and reconciles divergent interests."

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jmatthan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:50 PM
Response to Original message
15. Looking from outside the US is presently

not a very good Banana Republic!!

Only personal arrogance keeps Americans believing that they are the leaders of the free world.

With the huge trade deficit, huge outsourcing, no universal health care, only a war machine propping up the economy, a classical BR scenario.

Jacob Matthan
Oulu, Finland
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DistantWind88 Donating Member (695 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Yeah, that's why Europe
stopped the ethnic cleansing in Bosnia all by themselves...

You either lead, follow, or get out of the way. In Bosnia, Kosovo, and now Sudan, Europe has shown us where they stand.
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glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. At the time working with the US was not a sign of weakness.
Those times are over.
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DistantWind88 Donating Member (695 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. Working with?
How about standing there twiddling their thumbs until the US dragged them in?
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #17
26. USA! USA! USA!
Feel better now, dear?
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #17
43. Bosnia was done before Bush came into power and blew our dominance
all to heck.
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jmatthan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #17
48. Under whose reign was the Bosnia problem resolved?


Bush and his cohorts?

And then

What was the trade deficit of the US at that time?
What was the standing of US in the world community at that time?
What was the value of the dollar at that time?
What was the level of unemployment in the US at that time?

Need I say (ask) more!

Jacob Matthan
Oulu, Finland
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RBHam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:49 AM
Response to Reply #48
61. Who armed the KLA?
Osamagate
Michel Chossoduvsky

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO110A.html

excerpt:
The "Bosnian pattern" described in the 1997 Congressional RPC report was replicated in Kosovo. With the complicity of NATO and the US State Department. Mujahideen mercenaries from the Middle East and Central Asia were recruited to fight in the ranks of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) in 1998-99, largely supporting NATO's war effort.

Confirmed by British military sources, the task of arming and training of the KLA had been entrusted in 1998 to the US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and Britain's Secret Intelligence Services MI6, together with "former and serving members of 22 SAS , as well as three British and American private security companies".7

The US DIA approached MI6 to arrange a training programme for the KLA, said a senior British military source. `MI6 then sub-contracted the operation to two British security companies, who in turn approached a number of former members of the (22 SAS) regiment. Lists were then drawn up of weapons and equipment needed by the KLA.' While these covert operations were continuing, serving members of 22 SAS Regiment, mostly from the unit's D Squadron, were first deployed in Kosovo before the beginning of the bombing campaign in March. 8

While British SAS Special Forces in bases in Northern Albania were training the KLA, military instructors from Turkey and Afghanistan financed by the "Islamic jihad" were collaborating in training the KLA in guerilla and diversion tactics.9:

Bin Laden had visited Albania himself. He was one of several fundamentalist groups that had sent units to fight in Kosovo, ... Bin Laden is believed to have established an operation in Albania in 1994 ... Albanian sources say Sali Berisha, who was then president, had links with some groups that later proved to be extreme fundamentalists. 10
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
28. Amis are presently unable
to see themselves as others see them. Were they able to their troops would be returning home en masse YESTERDAY.
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Tinoire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #15
53. Hey Jacob
Not all Americans ;)

Many people here have been reading the writing on the floor for a long time. We know the party's over.

Welcome to DU.
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DeaconBlues Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
18. From bad to worse
I am all for a powerful European Union to act as a check on American hegemony, but do people here actually think a China with a global reach is a good thing?
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lectrobyte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 09:57 PM
Response to Reply #18
49. China already has a global reach. They own us. Hell, they just
bought a great big chunk of IBM.
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ContraBass Black Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
21. I don't know if I can live in a country
That isn't on top. I've never done it before. Maybe it will wake people up.
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #21
33. Being underneath is fun as well
... if you know what i mean... wink wink, nudge nudge ;-)

Being a post-imperial power is the beginning of a sense of humour.
Look forward to it, its the best period.
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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
25. But... but... but... We invented Viagra! We can never be impotent!
So sorry, old man....

It's all about the Republicans fighting the Democrats over peanuts now. The wild days of our youth are spent.

As a nation we're so fucking decrepit we can't even build a bridge from Oakland to San Francisco any more. (Hear that, Arnold???)

Manned space flight? Don't taunt me. The shuttles don't fly.

Come old friend, let us drink our cheap beer and remember the great battles we fought over Janet Jackson's naked breast.

Hey, how 'bout those Patriots?

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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #25
32. Bush 1 gave us 'Morning in America', Dimson brings us 'Evening
in America'. We tried to change things, but way too many Americans bought the Republican vision. Hope they got their night goggles, they're going to need 'em.
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indepat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
27. It depends on how long others will continue to fund the twin deficits,
whether the dollar remains a stable and viable currency.
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Lexingtonian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
30. well, duh....

This stupid neo-Victorian approach to the world that the Bushies are playing is counterproductive. They'd have to destroy almost all the relic colonialism inside the U.S. to make it fully competitive, but the fools are doing the opposite. Friggin' parasites.

Oh, the U.S. has all the potential and resources to be the dominant player for most of another century if it gives up the neo-colonial bit. No doubt about that. But we have idiotic criminal little boys running things in the name of bad ideas even they don't actually believe in. Because it's easy, and stupidity is its own reward.
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LiberallyInclined Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:09 PM
Response to Original message
34. Canada and Mexico would be well advised to read the Monroe Doctrine-
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 03:09 PM by LiberallyInclined
and start getting ready to join the United States of North America.

if we can't use our military to push around the rest of the world, at least we can control our corner of it.


you'll see...
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xpat Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #34
39. To quote Alberto Gonzales,
the Monroe Doctrine is "quaint". China has already made major inroads into US domination of the Americas. They have pulled off significant trade and diplomatic deals with major Latin American countries and Canada while our troops have been pinned down in Fallujah and Mossul.
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LiberallyInclined Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #39
45. diplomatic deals don't mean squat-
to a military republic.

WE border Canada & Mexico- how would/could chinese troops stop us?
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hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #45
60. I have this absurd vision....
It's January and the entire produce section of the supermarket is empty, except for potatos, turnips, and a few spooky looking cabbages.

I look out the icy supermarket windows as some soldiers push their dead Hummer off the street and into the empty parking lot...

Does anyone know where they might find some fuel?

I know a few people who might, but they are not telling.

Sorry guys. Here, go ahead, use my cell phone to call in.

While you are waiting, can I buy you all beer? Heh, heh, sorry it's Canadian, but I know you won't mind. Everyone around here supports our troops! Yes, we all do!

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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
35. Did anyone read the whole text?
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 03:41 PM by gorbal
Did anyone read the whole text?

http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf

I just finished it, (pretty much, I skipped over one or two pages.) What a masterpiece of science fiction. I swear the Pax-Americana scenario looks like a report I wrote in fifth grade. (only less researched).

It makes me wonder what scenario's they left out. Perhaps there was a Social-Democratic/Green scenario where people looked at other nations that took better care of their citizen's and desided to vote for their own well being. Or perhaps an "If John Kerry had won" scenario where people saw how capitalism could be played out with class and honesty. (I hope)
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amandabeech Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #35
50. Yes, and it relies on technology to solve all physical problems,
such as Peak Oil and disruptions to agriculture due to climate change.

Right now, world stocks of some grains, like wheat and corn, are not increasing even as population continues to grow. The CIA seems to assume that new strains of crops, principally GM, will increase yields sufficiently to feed everyone.

I myself am not that sanguine about technology. If more are to be fed, then Brazilian rain forests and savannas will have to be exploited, and the developed world, particularly North Americans, will be asked to eat less meat.

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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #50
65. I think facts are beyond them.
They should instead be focusing on the problems of transportation, and warfare making the roads unsafe for relief groups, (with weapons being out number one export I doubt they care) not food production. Dum asses.
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moodforaday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:45 PM
Response to Original message
36. Not good
While it's a vindication in a way, it's not a good thing. I certainly don't want America to be the global bully as it has become under Bush. But who's going to take America's place as the world's dominant power? Not Europe, because for better or worse EU doesn't seem much interested in playing world politics. China, then?

The US at least had a promise of being a _benevolent_ leader. Whoever replaces America in that role will hardly be benevolent.

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gorbal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. The UN is pretty benevolent
Some would say, to much so, but they are not chopped spinach.
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xpat Donating Member (295 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #36
41. What makes you think that
"Whoever replaces America in that role will hardly be benevolent."?

Don't underestimate the European Union. It's a whole new post-nation-state model. Their starting point was to create relationships within Europe that would make future European wars impossible. Now, extend that model, as Europe is now doing to larger and larger spheres, and you enter a viable world without war, which is the motor of free-market capitalism.

The Neanderthal, mere nation-state, US is freaked out by this latest human evolution that will overwhelm it's backward social/economic model. Remember how homo sapiens overwhelmed homo neanderthalensis? Homo eurounionensis is about to blow homo murcanassholensis out of the water. LOL!
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #36
52. Why does ANYBODY have to dominate the whole world?
Guys who used to play "Risk" when they were twelve always think that someone has to be THE world power.

Each region will have its own dominant powers. What's wrong with that?

Throughout history, countries trying to dominate the world have caused much more grief than they have solved.
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leesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
40. It's over already.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:36 PM
Response to Original message
42. Dominance is over *now*. Repukes *destroyed* our dominance, just like
the Nazis destroyed Germany.

Proof: Bush will do *anything* China tells him to do. Bush will *never* take *any* actions aganist China and for that matter, the Saudi Royal Family in Saudi Arabia.
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ermoore Donating Member (474 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #42
55. Not only the Repukes.
When did Clinton ever stand up to the Saudis (or anybody besides Milosevic, and then only with some major prodding)? I don't think there's a country out there right now that'll stand up to China. Clinton gave them Most Favored Nation status (which was bullshit). The UN recently refused $50 million in aid because it was from Taiwan. It's all terribly depressing, but it started long ago.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:54 AM
Response to Reply #55
62. Clinton had a Republican Congress starting in 1994.
Edited on Sat Jan-29-05 01:55 AM by w4rma
Other than that, I'm not going to defend Clinton. He's always been a big buisness, Repug-lite, DLC Democrat. I have *major* problems with the DLC.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 04:56 PM
Response to Original message
46. Come back to this issue in 2040 or 2050 or even 2060 (if you're not dead)
I'm sure China will be a bona fide world power by then, not just a very large Asian power it is today. The EU will probably be even further consolidated into a single bloc than it is today. Brazil and India would be pushing for more influence on the world stage as well. It's going to be crowded at the top of the hill, and somebody has to make some room.

We're moving into a multipolar world once again. We either learn to accept it and adapt, or we're going to make the same mistakes that were made in the past: A world that has been militarized and divided up into armed alliances worried about the other's power. If the US goes ahead and militarizes space, for instance, there's a good chance that either the EU or China or both will be sucked into a new arms race. It'll be the end of disarmament.

It could be like the years before 1914 all over again. This time it would be over control over limited resources and space-based weapons, not colonial possessions and naval dominance.
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ermoore Donating Member (474 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:21 AM
Response to Reply #46
59. Some thoughts
You know, I agree with most of the rest of you that China is gonna be one scary mf in about thirty years (probably sooner). But the EU? If I'm worried it's for another reason. I know a lot of people on here got ragin' boners for the EU, but I don't see it as this great consolidated democratic-socialist utopia in thirty or forty years.

The EU is facing a lot of serious problems (of course, aren't we all). In terms of consolidation it has to deal with a lot of pride and nationalism among pretty much every nation. This is why Chirac has been upset at the UK and some other countries (Poland I think is one) that are planning on putting the EU constitution up for a referendum. They know it'll never pass the people voting on it.

Corruption is also an issue in the gimungous bureaucracy that runs the EU. (I reckon it probably is in pretty much any bureaucracy to a degree).

Individually, many nations in Europe, specifically France, Germany, and the UK are going to have (I should say are having now) serious problems with the rising numbers of Muslim immigrants. They've already had to start restricting religious freedoms in France (can't wear crucifixes, headscarves to school for one). The native populations are declining. They already have less freedom of speech than we do here.

This is kinda out there, but I think there's a chance in the next century democracy faltering in parts of Europe. Let's be honest, they don't have the best record of racial harmony and they are pretty good at occasionally spawning dictators (Napoleon, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, any number from Eastern Europe, Bismarck, etc.). Ok, I've done enough damage here. Fire away.
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 12:01 AM
Response to Original message
51. The end has already started!
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lebkuchen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:59 AM
Response to Reply #51
63. Do implosions make a sound?

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porkrind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:06 AM
Response to Original message
58. This follows from exporting all our manufacturing overseas.
Now America doesn't make anything but weapons. Without actually making anything, it's hard to be a world power. This is obvious, and has been coming on hard since the 70's. This is no surprise. Dumbasses.
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GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #58
67. Exactly what my brother-in-law has stated, manufacturing is Overseas
It is manufacturing which made this country great and we have all but given it away to China. That is the reason they are now becoming a world power. We gave up technical knowledge to Japan and now they are powerful in that area. This country keeps giving up their base of power so what do you think is going to happen, we go down in the statics of course. WE are not as important a player in the game as we use to be thank to the likes of * and company, etc.

:kick:
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WillieWoohah Donating Member (79 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 05:12 AM
Response to Original message
64. This is bad, bad, bad news
The decline of British Imperial dominance at the start of the 20th century and the emergence of Germany as a serious competitor lead to the tensions that erupted in WW1 (or rather, those tensions were already present, but previously Britain's unquestioned dominance restrained her rivals from making a challenge for the top spot).

During the interwar years international institutions in a multi-polar world were unable to stop the outbreak of the second world war. Notice that it is the emerging rival that initiates conflict to challenge for the top spot, not the top dog who initiates wars to maintain it's position.

American dominance after WW2 after subordinating Germany and Japan and taking over Britain's sphere of influence ensured 50 years of relative peace. (The USSR was overrated as a serious rival because it could not compete as a naval power and therefore could not project power far beyond it's borders)

The first half of the 20th century was multipolar and was the bloodiest 50 years in human history. The second half was unipolar and therefore by and large peaceful.

The idea that large power blocks can 'balance' and restrain each other is a delusion. That is exactly the situation in Europe prior to the First World War. These kind of ideas are motivated out of resentment and jealousy from America's power rivals, not from realism.

Now imagine WW1 with nukes. Not to be melodramatic, but if America looses it's dominance I predict it will be the end of civilisation. As a non-American citizen I'm not saying this out of jingoism either.
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freethought Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #64
66. The second half of the 20th century was not unipolar
Lest you forget that there were two spheres of influence in the last 50 years of the 20th century. The U.S. and the Soviet Union. And to say that this period was 'relatively peaceful' is not quite right either. The two powers fought wars all over the world just in the form of proxy wars or covert war. Korea, Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan. Just allow me to remind you that there was a confrontation over an island 90 miles just off of Florida. Had it not been for cooler heads we would BE history rather than witness history.

One should also remember what the consequences were if the two polar influences came into direct conflict with each other. A nuclear war could have sent the entire human race into oblivion. For a good portion of the second half of the last century the USSR was a very viable opponent. It was not until that century came to a close that the USSR began to falter. Most of USSR military power came through armor and aircraft since the plans for Soviet dominance involved taking western Europe as well as establishing so-called 'beachheads' in latin America.



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