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FYI: The China Syndrome

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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:37 AM
Original message
FYI: The China Syndrome
The fragility of the American economy is not found in esoteric indicators like consumer spending, though that is important, but in the kindness of our so-called enemies.

Take China, for example, the big Red menace looming beyond the California tide. Most see China as our next big economic and military competitor, some sort of Soviet Union Mark II just waiting to explode onto the scene.

Yet few people really understand that China, right now, has the power to cripple this country without firing a shot. Why? Because they buy our debt. No, strike that. Because they buy our staggering debt, and if they decide to stop doing that, our economy will be mortally wounded.

More here: http://truthout.org/fyi
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jus_the_facts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
1. oh yeah...not really a matter of if but when.....
....sigh... :nopity:
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. Yup. And if the neoCONimperialists march forward with PNAC,...
,...China is gonna' kick our ass. The neoCONimperialists have actually threatened our national security,...severely threatened our national security.
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brainshrub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
3. They are buying back Taiwan.
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 11:45 AM by brainshrub
Brilliant stategy when you think about it.

They will simply march up to Bush and give him an eviction note: Let us take back Taiwan within 30 days, or your economy goes *pop*.
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yo shrub
Do you have any tweaks to your protest kit thing? If not, I'm going to blog it today. Let me know.
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brainshrub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. No tweaks, it's done.
If you have any editing suggestions, I'll change it ASAP.

Other than that, post away!

Thanks.
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WilliamPitt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Looks good from here
:)
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brainshrub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Good luck with the RSS upgrade next week.
I'm a big fan of truthout.org.
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. China is buying UN votes
They've been quietly going around to poor countries in South America, Africa & Asia and working out favorable trade agreements with them... so, when the inevitable conflict comes over Taiwan, it will be the US, Taiwan and nobody else.

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brainshrub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. On a "positive" note.
As long as the US occupies SA and Iraq, and threatens Iran I doubt they would be willing to threaten the American economy.

Even if Russia sold all it's oil to China, it wouldn't be enough.
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Cleita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
4. Yep, they can destroy us without firing a shot.
eom
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Kagemusha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
6. Economic warfare is more mad than MAD.
And about as productive.
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flamin lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
7. Worse yet, if they decide
to just dump it. If they were to sell their share of our debt at below current market every other debt holder would have to follow suit or be left holding worthless bonds. The dollar would collapse. Those cheap t-shirts at Walmart will cost $150 each.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #7
17. isn't it a two-way street?
China dumping our bonds would be very difficult for them to do without hurting the Chinese economy as well. They can't unload that hoard overnight, and as they start to do so the value of their own holdings collapse along with everyone else's. Likewise, as we buy enormous piles of shit from them, wrecking the dollar doesn't exactly help them either. Besides, at the moment the chinese currency is pegged to the dollar, so what goes around immediately comes around on that front.

The Chinese would do this only as an act of economic war, only if they saw no alternative.

On the other hand, our neoclowns view China as the real enemy. Their global strategy is all about isolating China from the productive cheap oil fields as we enter the planetary peak oil production crunch. The Chinese aren't stupid, so they understand what is really going on as well. We are perhaps pushing China into exactly this sort of action.
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flamin lib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:15 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. The axis of opposition
to American imperialism is beginning. China, Russia, India and Venezuela have made reciprocating military and economic agreements. Not sure if they rise to the level of treaties or just mutual understanding but the point is that if they agree to support each other they could mitigate the damage to their own economies as they collapse ours. Like our allies have helped us maintain the strength of the $$ in the past, they could bolster each other.

Russia is selling military equipment to China and they participated in joint war games on Chinese soil. The statements emanating from both countries indicate that the purpose of this cooperation it to offer a counter for the growing US military presence worldwide.

The combination of threats makes me nervous.
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stevedeshazer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
8. Yikes
I wish every American understood this.

I'm going to go practice using chopsticks now. :(
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codswallop Donating Member (97 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
13. Economist - China Loses Faith In Dollar
Economist - China Loses Faith In Dollar

By Edith M. Lederer
Associated Press Writer
1-27-5


DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) -- China has lost faith in the stability of the U.S. dollar and its first priority is to broaden the exchange rate for its currency from the dollar to a more flexible basket of currencies, a top Chinese economist said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum.

At a standing-room only session focusing on the world's fastest-growing economy, Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute at the China Reform Foundation, said the issue for China isn't whether to devalue the yuan but "to limit it from the U.S. dollar."

But he stressed that the Chinese government is under no pressure to revalue its currency.

China's exchange rate policies restrict the value of the yuan to a narrow band around 8.28 yuan, pegged to $1. Critics argue that the yuan is undervalued, making China's exports cheaper overseas and giving its manufacturers an unfair advantage. Beijing has been under pressure from its trading partners, especially the United States, to relax controls on its currency.

"The U.S. dollar is no longer -- in our opinion is no longer -- (seen) as a stable currency, and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time," Fan said, speaking in English.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A39107-20...

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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
14. Both countries are very inter-dependent right now
We're still, by far, China's largest market for goods. If the US economy collapses, it will be felt around the world. While it may be a Depression in the US, China will suffer (at least) a severe recession as their own banks have a lot of problems, their infrastructure needs serious upgrading, etc. Canada, the EU and Japan will also take hits as well. Granted, nobody will suffer like the US, but this would be a shockwave felt 'round the world.

However, I have been warning since I came onto DU 16 months ago or so that eventually China is going to take the plunge and think their economy is strong enough to withstand the collapse of the dollar if they either let the yuan float or tie it to the Euro instead of the dollar. I do not think that time is coming within the next year or two, though.

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Acryliccalico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:00 PM
Response to Original message
15. No wounder our rights are being taken away
we are controlled by CHINA!!!
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realFedUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
16. Yuan or lost?
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 12:04 PM by realFedUp
I crack myself up daily...
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prodigal_green Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
18. So the chimp really is
a Manchurian Candidate.

I knew he was working for another government to collapse not only our economy, but our standing in the world in general.

We will be not unlike England, France or Spain very soon. Dead empires with a lot of bitter nationalists.
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AnnInLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
19. And this from Seymour Hersh:
according to Wednesday's Democracy Now:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=05/01/26/145...

"Another salvation may be the economy. It's going to go very bad, folks. You know, if you have not sold your stocks and bought property in Italy, you better do it quick. And the third thing is Europe -- Europe is not going to tolerate us much longer. The rage there is enormous. I'm talking about our old-fashioned allies. We could see something there, collective action against us. Certainly, nobody -- it's going to be an awful lot of dancing on our graves as the dollar goes bad and everybody stops buying our bonds, our credit -- our -- we're spending $2 billion a day to float the debt, and one of these days, the Japanese and the Russians, everybody is going to start buying oil in Euros instead of dollars. We're going to see enormous panic here. But he could get through that. That will be another year, and the damage hes going to do between then and now is enormous. Were going to have some very bad months ahead."

AMY GOODMAN: Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh. This news just in: 31 Marines have died in a helicopter crash in Iraq.


(((time to sell, folks, and put your money into, uh, uh, er, what?)))
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poe Donating Member (554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:30 PM
Response to Original message
20. China's holding of US$ has been halved in just the last few years-25% now
Edited on Fri Jan-28-05 12:36 PM by poe
also they are increasingly engaged in direct trade agreements in the energy sector with Venezuela (oil) and Iran (LNG) thusly cutting into the petrodollar tithe received by Uncle Sam. The plastic US empire i call McAmeriWalMartika is finished. A CIA report that American global dominance could end in 15 years. It will end sooner-celebrate it wasn't such a joy ride for most of the planet.
www.slate.msn.com/id/21122697
You can link to the entire 119 page document from this article listed above.
Seems the slate article has been moved you can go to their archives or go to
www.whatreallyhappened.com and look at today's listings to get there. or could also go to
www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s1.html#scen
to see report.
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Red_Viking Donating Member (903 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
22. Read _The United States of Europe_
By TR Reid. It addresses this very issue. And, in fact, the EU intends to have the Euro replace the dollar as the world's preferred currency of trade.

A united Europe has been in the works since the end of WWII. The member states are highly unified on so many issues we could only dream of--equal rights, human rights, living wage, work/life balance, social safety nets, free higher education (even Oxford and the Sorbonne!), and so on. They've poured their money into the welfare state and foreign aid. So, both China and the EU are shoring up their influence in the UN through economic means, rather than the US method of "agree with us or we'll bash you over the head and do it anyway."

Our undoing will be economic. The rest of the world will begin trading in the far-more-stable Euro. China and other countries are making oil deals independent of any US influence with countries like Venezuela (watch out, Chavez). We will truly be the wallflower of the world, like the mean kid your mom won't let you invite to your birthday party because they always wreck the place.

We deserve it, but I hate that so many people will suffer for the healthy dose of come-uppance we'll get.

Peace,

RV
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Sterling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-28-05 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
24. Honestly Will I think that their plan accounts for that.
It appears they are going to flip the world upside down in the next few years. They seem to be making new rules for the world that makes the old ways quaint and passe. Their plan is all or nothing. I can see them just saying fuck China, we are writing off our debt and canceling all treaties because we are at war. Given the are going to make a grab at Irans oil in the next few years if not sooner they obviously intend on controlling the tap for the entire world when it comes to energy. I think this makes them feel like they can just fuck things up as much as they want now and reorder everything later.

Yes it is insane but sadly totally believable and par for the course.
These guys wrote off the Geneva Convention for Christs sakes.
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jus_the_facts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-29-05 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. kick
:hi:
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