Uh oh...have you guys read how many SHIA are boycotting?????!

[LynnTheDem]

"FUBAR" seems a good word to sum up what we are.

I knew some Shia were boycotting, and I knew apx 2,000,000 Shia just from Baghdad alone won't be (part of them "just 4 provinces" too dangerous to vote which also happen to contain some 54% of the entire population of Iraq).

And with Shia @ 60% to Sunni @ 20%, every 1% of Shia is a very significant number.

But I did not realize just how MANY Shia are planning to boycott! More than the total number of Sunnis in Iraq! :wow:

20 mil total pop of Iraq; 40% as kids; that's 12 mil adults.

12 mil adults, 60% Shia = 7,200,000

12 mil adults, 20% Sunni = 2,400,000

"Only 4 provinces" that are 54% of the entire pop of Iraq can't vote, and that's going to include a lot of Shia; Baghdad alone has 2 mil Shia, less 40% kids = 1.2 mil that won't be able to vote.

Assuming even an 80% turn-out for Shia, that would be 1,440,000.

(20% of 7.2 mil)

Sunni not voting, 100% = 2,400,000 boycotting

Shia not voting:

1,200,000
1,440,000 = 2,640,000 unable/@80% turn-out

:wow:

More Shia not voting than Sunni...and that's without boycotts.

Now for the Shia boycotting:

Contrary to many Western press reports which depicted the debate over the election date as polarising Iraq along sectarian lines -- with the majority of Shia pro-election, while the Sunnis are pro-delay -- Iraqi political activist Mussa Al-Husseini (Shia) told the Weekly that there were also large sections of the Shia population who are committed to boycotting the elections.

Al-Husseini, who describes himself as a secular Shia, went on to point out that there are large numbers of Iraqi Shia who will boycott the elections despite Sistani's calls to go to the polls, because they believe that the whole process is merely a charade intended to bestow legitimacy on an illegitimate order.

"The real issue is not about a Sunni boycott versus Shia participation," Al- Husseini insisted. "It is about whether you are against the occupation and support the national resistance. And there are as many Shia as there are Sunnis in that camp."

http://why-war.com/news/2004/12/02/tovoteor.html

"This is a statement issued and signed by 69 independent political groups, religious authorities ( marjyia ), tribal leaders and independent public figures," Mothana Hareth Al-Dari, spokesman for the influential Sunni Muslim Cleric's Association (MCA) said. The statement advocated an "absolute boycott" of the elections. No vote, it continued, "promoted by the occupation forces" can result in sovereignty and independence for the Iraqi people. It cited "vicious" attacks by the occupation on Iraqi cities like Najaf, Karbalaa, Samara, Mosul, Baghdad and "especially the genocidal war launched on Falluja", as among the reasons for boycotting the elections. "The undersigned realise that...the results of the vote have already been decided in favour of those supporting the occupation."

The signatories include Sunni, Shia, Christian, Turkman, Kurdish, Islamic and secular groups.

A Shia electoral list was announced last week, with the blessing of Iraq's senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. Significantly, it did not include supporters of Al-Sadr. The 275 candidate list is expected to dominate the Iraqi parliament and has created the false impression that the boycott is essentially Sunni, while Iraq's Shia are happy to contest the vote.

"You must realise," cautioned Al-Ali, "that there is a big difference between a Shia list and the Shia list. Yes, there is an electoral list, but it doesn't represent all the Shia. Don't forget that the Al-Sadrist movement is influential in the Iraqi street and it is boycotting the elections." The elections' opponents, he stressed, include both Sunni and Shia.

"I speak now as a Shia," he told the Weekly, "and what they are doing is dividing the nationalist line. We will not hesitate to expose those who do that."

And, according to the MCA's Al-Dhari, "one quarter of the election boycott front is Shia."

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/721/re7.htm

One quarter??? *blink*

I think FUBAR sums up our situ perfectly if the above happens.

[Mojambo]

1. This election is a sham in every sense of the word.

It's going to make OUR election look smooth by comparison.

[theresistance]

2. Interesting info

Here was another story I found earlier:

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D1C660D3-31C9-44C5-925F-4070AC17D606.htm

[TWiley]

3. Thank you for posting this.

I wondered what those relationships were. I am sure we will not get any of this information on the MSM. It should be headline news, but that damn liberal media will spare no expense to keep the truth about the bush family war from coming out.

[KG]

4. not to mention the ban on vehicle traffic and secret polling locations.

but really, does any thinking person take this election seriously?

[LynnTheDem]

5. yep, bush, his Cartel, the rightwingnut pundits and bushbo...oh wait...n/m

Didn't see that "thinking person" part at first.

[xchrom]

6. this isn't surprising to me

resistance to amerca and american{or western culture} culture is pervasive in the middle east -- and growing in other parts of the world.
and not every body who resists is a fundy wacko either.{now those folk really interest me}.

what we have to come to grips with -- and really, only liberals are interested in this conversation -- is what we have wrought for ourselves over time?

[shadowknows69]

7. don't worry

plent of expatriated Iraqis voting here in the states on Deibold/Allawi machines.

[leftchick]

8. actually the expatriat numbers are WAY lower

than expected. only around 200,000 I believe.

[leftchick]

9. Now Lynn, I just watched CNN's Jane Araff in Fallujah this AM

(the film footage of Fallujah was JUST devastating :( )

Jane (news HO extrordinaire) was ging on and on about the elections preparations and how the people want to participate and are SO glad for this opportunity! It was vomitous.

One interesting tidbit that snuck out... The US Military was helping with the elections when asked by 'The Iraqi Government', whether helping to set up polling places, guarding and delivering ballots, etc. Now isn't there some Military code where this is unlawful? I seem to remember someone mentioning this before.

[LynnTheDem]

10. Yes it's illegal.

This entire "election" is illegal, and fraudulant. And it is NOT to elect any president. And the selected group who will select a group who will select a group to select a government can select ANYONE and ANY TYPE of govt they want.

How is a theocracy a democracy?

How is a fascist dictatorship a democracy?

It's all just illegal total bullshit propaganda from bush per usual, just trying desperately to cover his ass.

Imagine him in Mar 2003 saying:

"We must INVADE and OCCUPY and LOSE American men, women & teens so that 50% of the Iraqi people can vote for an unknown group to select a group to select a group of 3 who will next year select a president and executive staff!"

He would have been impeached next day by the rightwing themselves.

1400+ US dead and $300 billion and world hatred later...

[Djinn]

11. perfectly put

:toast:

[jmcgowanjm]

12. About Arraf's appearance in Falloujah. Our very own AxisSally

“I’d been in Fallujah for a week and all I’d seen was
tough military tactics,” he tells me, “They are arresting
people and putting them in these trucks, blindfolded and tied
up. Everywhere I looked all I saw was utter
devastation.”

He spoke with many families who told him one horror story
after another, death after death after
death.

“Then today, the military brings in a dozen Humvees and
ground troops to basically seal off a small area near a
market,” he continues, “In the middle of them is a CNN
camera crew filming troops throwing candy to kids and
these guys in orange vests start cleaning the streets
around them.”

He laughs while holding up his arms and says, “I’d never
seen those guys anywhere in the city before. I don’t know
where they came from.”

After a pause to take a drink of soda he adds, “I’d never seen
any boots on the ground at all, and all of the sudden there are
all these marines standing around like everything was ok. It
was the first time I’d seen any soldier not in a Humvee or
a Bradley. I was really surprised.”

“All of it was 100% staged. Good PR before the election,”
he says. Then in a reference to mainstream America he
adds, “Fallujah is fine, now go back to sleep.”

http://www.williambowles.info/iraq/2005/dahr_270105.html