THIS is Why We LOST This Election!

[liberalpragmatist]

I am furious at our strategists. No, Kerry isn't blameless, but let's face it - campaign strategists in ANY campaign have a huge impact on a race. Does anybody think Bush would be anywhere without Rove?

Shrum and Cahill were two of the most incompetent strategists around. Cahill was a decent manager, a bad strategist. Shrum was an okay ad man, used to be a good speech-writer (his style sucked for Kerry though), and was a horrible strategist.

Case in point: Look at this excerpt from a Boston Globe post mortem.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/11/14/o...

... the Kerry campaign wasn't firing on all cylinders either. The prison scandal, a spike in American casualties in Iraq, and the public investigation into the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks hurt Bush, but didn't necessarily help Kerry. Still largely unknown outside Massachusetts, the Democratic candidate was having trouble getting his message across.

This might have been an ideal time to hit Bush hard. Instead, the candidate proceeded on a deliberate course, crafted by media adviser Bob Shrum and campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill, to raise money, broadcast policy proposals, and advertise Kerry's life story. In early May, the campaign announced a $25 million, mostly biographical advertising buy -- the largest single buy to that date by either side.

Kerry's appearances focused on domestic issues, largely because campaign-organized focus groups rated healthcare and the economy as top concerns. At one campaign stop, Kerry even refused to answer whether the prison scandal should force Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to resign, saying "I've already commented."

**

AND This page, about how Paul Begala identified 12 key themes to hammer against Bush: 1. Over his head/incompetent; 2. For the rich/special interests; 3. Ideological/stubborn/rigid; 4. Out of touch; 5. Ignores problems; 6. Can only to do one thing at a time; 7. Liar/broken promises; 8. Wrong Priorities; 9. No plan for the future; 10. Divider; 11. You're on your own; 12. Ignores middle class.

He told them to pick one or two of these themes and hammer it. But they didn't. Kerry asked Begala to join the campaign. He did not, but he changed his mind in July after seeing that they hadn't taken his advice. Cahill rejected him:

What are you talking about? Cahill asked, according to Begala.

"It seems obvious you don't have a message or strategy-driven campaign," Begala said he replied.

Again, Cahill asked what Begala was talking about. Begala remembers that she looked "like I was going to perform open-heart surgery on her. She said: 'I need to think about this. Give me a couple of days to set that up.' From that day to now, I never heard another word from her. And you know, I was pretty angry. I'm still pretty angry."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/11/14/o...

[alittlelark]

1. I think we 'lost' to BBV and other vote fraud.

The message thing is secondary.

[SharonAnn]

4. I think we lost to both. An inspiring message and we would've

had such a lead that that BBV couldn't have overcome it.

[jmowreader]

10. BBV did things I never would have thought possible

In North Carolina, BBV helped turn a two-point loss into a 13-point loss. I would never have expected them to try swinging the vote eleven points. (And the weird thing is, they really didn't need to swing at all. I said repeatedly that NC was winnable, but it would have been a longshot to do it. Seriously, folks, I was looking at MAYBE a three-percent loss.

The only reason to use BBV for the presidential race in North Carolina was to help cement an impression that this is still solidly Bush country, which it's not--two big population centers are Charlotte and the Triangle, and both went for Kerry. (Triad-area DUers: what did Kerry do up there?) In places like Wayne County it's definitely Bush land--but Wayne County is not overrun with voters or anyone else, for that matter.

I do think BBV helped with the Senate race. Burr wasn't lookin' so hot until he made Bill Clinton Erskine Bowles' running mate. To guarantee results they used BBV.

[regnaD kciN]

28. That's always been my point...

I know, the last few weeks were exciting, and it was fun to read the daily polls looking for signals that we were pulling ahead.

But...it should never have been that close to begin with! With a failing economy, a quagmire in Iraq, and gas prices over $2.00/gallon (and, make no mistake, it was high gas prices that killed Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980), we should have been up by double digits going into the last month of the campaign. Why, Bush should not even have been able to get enough of a "bounce" from his convention to get within more than six or eight points of us, and it should have been all downhill from there. (And that's not even counting Kerry's wins in all three debates during that last month. The first debate, coming on the heels of what should have been a sizeable Kerry lead at the Labor Day mark, should have finished Bush off altogether, with pundits rushing to get out "what went wrong" postmortems by mid-October.)

You know what this campaign reminded me of? When a sports team (football, basketball, whatever) comes into a road game against a team that should have no chance, but the (overconfident?) favored team doesn't play smart or execute well, and lets the home team stay close far longer than it should. Then, as the final minutes roll around, the crowd gets into the game, the home team gets a burst of energy, and suddenly they've pulled ahead, with the game ending as the erstwhile favorites wonder "how on earth did we lose to these guys?"

[ElsewheresDaughter]

5. it was BBV...nothing less nothing more..BBV PERIOD

[Nederland]

16. Not BBV

If it was fraud, it was tabulators.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

45. okay .....that too - "tabulators & fraud" it all = THEFT of OFFICE

[tritsofme]

26. I think we lost, and some people refuse to come to terms with it

so they create things to justify their denial of loss so they do not have to face it and look at what needs to be changed in the message of our party.

Saying that the message is secondary only shows that we refuse to examine our campaign tactics and instead take the easy way out and blame it on nonexistant fraud.

[m berst]

31. why arm chair psychoanalyze people?

Why assume that it has anything to do with Kerry winning that is motivating people? And even to the extent that it is, what is wrong with that?

The dangers of neglecting to stop a possible election theft far, far outweigh the dangers of failing to jump immediately to an analysis of campaign tactics. In any case, many of the members who are working on the election theft are also contributing the best campaign tactic analyses as well, so it isn't an either/or situation and your off the cuuf dismissal of them falls apart on that point alone.

You should do what you need to do for your peace of mind. Don't project that onto others and make up things about what their state of mind is.

[jsw_81]

39. I think you're right

Far too many DUers are stuck in the denial stage of grief. The sooner they get to acceptance, the better our chances in 2008.

[Bluebear]

2. In my heart I think we won a squeaker

But your points are well taken. We spent all summer getting America to "get to know" him when we really might have started hitting Bush and policies right off the bat.

[aquart]

3. Could have run the best campaign in history.

And BBV Bush still would have stolen the election.

[Bluebear]

6. You said it. nt

[leftchick]

42. exactly.....

this is all such BS.... "what cold we have done better?". Kerry's campaign was not perfect, but it was pretty damn good and one fuck of a lot better than dumbya's. When you own the fucking voting machines it does not matter what the hell you did. Talk about denial!...

[SammyWinstonJack]

53. That's what I believe

But I might be in denial here.

[Ducks In A Row]

7. it doesn't matter how many times you blame the message

it was the election fraud stealing the votes that did it.

regardless of what the pollsters and pundits wanted you to believe, most people were voting bush out of the office, and crap on tv against kerry, or for bush, never was part of it

[demnan]

8. Kerry didn't relate to me

And I campaigned for him, put stickers on my car, donated my time phoning, walked up steps with my bad knees and gave out literature at the polls. Why? Because I knew that he stood for the liberal values I believed in. But how did he relate that to others? I don't know. I think that is why he failed. He assumed that his base understood, but he didn't really reach out to us. He assumed the intelligence of the voter and that doesn't make it in this world.

You know I could have told you where Gore went wrong when on his website he didn't list pro-choice or preproductive rights as a major campaign issue. Kerry didn't speak up against the Iraq war and that was where he lost a lot of enthusiastic support.

Just my take on things.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

25. Why his IWR vote left him vulnerable

Kerry's vote for the IWR vote worked against him in an unexpected way. Almost all anti-war types swallowed their doubts and campaigned for him, BUT the fact that he had voted for the IWR and then criticized Bush for the invasion and then said that he'd be tougher in Iraq left him open to charges of "flip-flopping."

[regnaD kciN]

30. Sadly, that's exactly it...

I think Kerry, despite what he said about being fooled by Bush's WMD lies, made a very calculated political move in voting for the IWR. He figured that, if the war went well, anyone who opposed it would look like an idiot by the time the election rolled around. (And, if you don't believe that would have transpired, look at how Dean was temporarily made into a laughingstock in the general media euphoria after Saddam's capture.) And if it went poorly, people were going to blame Bush rather than Kerry himself for it. And, as to those on the left who were upset with his vote, he figured that they would come around in the end on ABB grounds.

And, do you know what? He was right on all those points. But what he didn't figure on would be that the Republicans would be able to go after him on an IWR vote that was, after all, supporting their leader. But the "flip-flop" label came to the fore almost as soon as he became the front-runner, and lingered on just enough to surround him with an aura of doubt for most if not all of the rest of the campaign. The result was that, while Kerry didn't have the problems "defining himself" that Gore experienced in 2000 (when pundits would study each new clothing combination on the grounds of "how is Gore re-inventing himself this time?"), even when he made a clear statement of his values and programs, many "on-the-fence" voters wondered whether they really were where he stood, or just what his handlers thought would "sell" at this time.

Now, maybe if he had voted against the IWR, he would have been pigeonholed as a "lefty anti-war candidate" just like Dean and never made it to the nomination. But, had he managed to win the nomination despite opposing IWR, I think it would have been a lot easier for him to spell out "where I stand" and seem credible, making a more-compelling reason for trusting him with the leadership of this nation.

[Mr.Green93]

9. the election is not over

[regnaD kciN]

34. No, it isn't...

...and I still have hopes that Kerry will pull off the "miracle comeback" with the Ohio recount. But, even if that happens, and even if it's President Kerry watching the Inaugural Parade next January 20th, the fact will still remain that he lost the popular vote by almost eight times the margin that Bush lost in 2000. Even if some of that can be attributable to BBV, I think one has to be of the variety to believe that, if all the votes were counted legitimately, Kerry would be on top in the popular vote. So, in that sense, Kerry lost to Bush, in a race where many of us think, had his campaign managers shown any competence whatsoever, Kerry should have won in a near-landslide.

[idiosyncratic]

11. We "lost" this election because of electin FRAUD!

No message change would have overcome the numbers crunching that was done behind the scenes.

[sce56]

12. I agree with the BBV thing since a lot of people were trying hard to stop

it for over a year to noavail.Now how do we not know if Kerry was BBV'ed into the spot so as to present the best candidate to defeat? His stuff did not make that much sense aginst the likes of Dean. Think about it!!!!!!!

[politicasista]

13. This article is making me sad

All the coulda, woulda, shoulda, hindsight stories about Kerry and his campaign are depressing. Everyone said the campaign was a disaster from the get go.

[jsw_81]

40. Yes

But if there had been a shift of only two percentage points in one state (Ohio), every article would have been about how "brilliant" the Kerry campaign was and what a "genius" Cahill is. Isn't politics weird?

[Hello_Kitty]

14. I do think there were strategic errors

Such as not hitting back, hard and immediately, on the Swift Boat b.s. But we could have run Jesus Christ himself as a candidate and lost. We were up against people who will stop at nothing to win and their complicit media lapdogs. Assuming no voter fraud (and I'm not assuming that at all), we did pretty well in the end. WE'RE the ones with the real mandate IMHO.

[high density]

15. Why where they so cautious?

I don't get it. Bush and Cheney campaigned like crazy mad men while Kerry held off bashing Bush until September. Expecting the 527 groups to do all of the Bush bashing was stupid, and people seem to have thought that these ads came from the Kerry campaign anyway.

I disagree with the article where they say that the position(s) on Iraq hurt him, since he did win over most of the voters who thought Iraq was the most important issue. The writing was much better than Newsweek's recount of the campaign which sounded like something out of a tabloid.

"We watched as the (Swift Boat Vet) story jumped from the Internet, to Fox News, to the other cable networks," said Cahill. "Our concern was we didn't want to help it along by our reaction." These people were executing a quarter billion dollar campaign? Ugh.

[Xenus Sister]

17. Too mild, too harsh, too liberal, too moderate, what the freakin' ever!

Kerry talked (OFTEN!) about everything we're concerned about...

BUT THE MEDIA NEVER REPORTED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They chose one or two short soundbites and completely ignored the rest of his message.

Every day, several times a day, he slammed Bush, and slammed the Iraq war, and slammed letting Osama get away, and talked about health care/environment/education and on and on and on, and unless everyone who's bitching and moaning listened to EVERY SINGLE ONE OF KERRY'S SPEECHES FROM BEGINNING TO END, EACH AND EVERY ONE, they should SHUT THE FUCK UP!

Hell, even most avid Kerry watchers didn't see/hear/read a transcript of EVERY SINGLE Kerry speech, so what the hell are people talking about??

This talk makes me sick. Kerry DID talk about all the stuff they claim he never talked about, but who would know?

(all that said, I am also upset that he didn't come out swinging at the Swift Boar Liars, but even then, even though I think it was a mistake to keep silent, it pointed out what a gentleman Kerry was. It seemed to me he didn't want to lash out at fellow Veterans they way they were lashing out at him. He respected them much more than they will ever know. Buncha assholes, the lot of them.)

[DuaneBidoux]

18. But face it, who hires an 0-7 coach? Give me a friggin break.

I'm sure there was fraud, but now that Shrubs vote totals have surpassed 60million I'm less sure they needed fraud to do it. More candidates than ever before voted AGAINST a candidate, but that was still the problem. They voted AGAINST a candidate. That is never enough, especially when you have a machine like Shrubs and the backing of the Christofascists who nearly 100% voted as a block.

We have never been serious about the criminality or venality of our enemy. If we don't get serious soon we will lose the country we grew up in.

[leesa]

19. Bullshit! We lost because the media is controlled by the GOP and because

they committed massive voter fraud. WE did the right thing and we mobilized extremely well. It was stolen.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[liberalpragmatist]

21. Yeah, I know

Welcome, btw - so you're a conservative. Frankly, I like having conservatives on the DU boards if they're thoughtful and respectful. Don't make any rabidly partisan remarks or you'll be banned. Did you support Bush? If so, you may want to talk to the administrators b/c board rules are no active support of any Republicans. (Your allowed to support some Republicans, but if its for President its highly frowned upon. Anybody else, and you're ok but expected not to actively try to drum up support or belittle Democrats.)

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[sandnsea]

33. Generally

This is a democratic board. Don't be surprised if you're booted out. It's nothing personal. There's lots of other boards for partisan chatter.

[journalist3072]

23. Blame the American People

I agree with that incompetent strategists share some blame. But I also blame the American people. Specifically, I blame those uninformed voters who allowed themselves to be sold a bill of goods by this farce of an administration.

They allowed themselves to be mentally abused by Dick Cheney, telling them if they didn't make the right choice, there would be another terrorist attack.

They allowed them to be sucked into the Repug's distortions and outright lies on John Kerry's record, and his position on the issues.

So, I blame those uninformed voters who just show up at the poll and pull a lever, without really understanding what the issues are.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[seabeyond]

46. then someone who voted against him, i have

been wanting ot ask. as i have been told time and again about the immorality of the left and the right gonna show me what morality is, i challenge a single right to challenge my morality, in all your morality, why didnt i hear a single republican prior to election, or day of election stand up and yell about suppression of vote by your party. as you are teaching me morality, why did we watch voter intimidation going on. is that an act of morality. in morality, why did the republican set up polls in the poor and black communities where people stood outside in cold rain for up to 10 hours.

this, is not a good example of morality. and for republicans not to stand up for their fellow americans is another example of their own lack of morality

in morality, why didnt the republicans for the last four years say we want a voting system where the appearance of theft can never happen. we want a paper trail to assure that we dont have voter theft

if you want to chat what morality is, it is standing up for what is right, even though it isnt to your advantage, that is the challenge of morality, and that is also why morality so valuable, is it is having the courage to do what is right

so if we all say, the vote was stolen, with the false numbers given, with history adn with no ability to validate whether it is a fair election, a moral person would see and hear the cries. a moral person would be standing on the side of fellow americans who are being ripped off, not keeping their moouth shut

so do tell, where is this great morality the republican party is going to teach me, a 43 year old mom that has made good healthy moral decisions, most all my life, dedicating my life to children and husband, creating a christian enviroment for all around me

tell me how to be a moral person. i just cant wait for some positive examples of morality the right is so keen on giving me

[drunkdriver-in-chief]

27. Kerry should have had surrogates attacking bush

Kerry took the statesman-like approach as did bush. But bush had the swifties at kerry's throat. Dems should have had people like kennedy and byrd calling bush a mass-murderer for all the americans and iraqis killed in iraq. And of course, repeat over and over - HE LIED US INTO THIS WAR.

But dems never attacked bush. As usual, they just talked about the boring issues.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. We lost because of 9/11, specifically terrorism fear among white women

Every poll internal all year screamed that white women would decide this election. Kerry's poll standing was directly related to performance among that group.

I'm annoyed at myself for not emphasizing that much more on DU prior to the election, especially in initiated threads. I wrote it in replies to other threads many times. Probably not, but perhaps there would be less inane BBV garbage if a subcategory had been identified as critical beforehand, and now we see how poorly we did there, losing 55-44% nationwide compared to 49-48% in 2000. Kerry freefell among white women compared to Gore even in states no one is questioning in regard to exit polls or BBV. It is very consistent nationwide.

Perhaps Diebold machines are much more sophisticated than we think, altering votes only among white women. Via chromosone detection or DNA, perhaps.

[sandnsea]

35. Should have been tougher

I agree. With his experience in international crime, money laundering, gun and drug crime; I never understood why they didn't use it more. He was also killed with the 20 years of no experience garbage. Especially disheartening when alot of his legislation has helped women and that's who he was trying to get to vote for him. Just never understood what they were thinking.

[sandnsea]

32. He hit all those themes

The Clintons said focus on the economy, for the most part Kerry did. Begala lists those 12 themes, Kerry hit on all of them, all the time. They just do not understand the suburban and rural voter is sick to death of hearing about the rich, the corporations, middle class squeeze, bla bla bla. And the biographical ad buy was terrific.

I'd have done this campaign differently too. But these people who criticize Kerry for doing exactly what he did get on my last nerve.

[liberalpragmatist]

36. You make a fair point

I know, I seem exasperated. I just really wanted to win.

And no, I don't think the campaign was terrible. I thought Kerry's last two months were terrific. I just wish the way the campaign had been as events-focused and as critical of Bush from late spring on, and I wish in hindsight that the convention had been used to deliver a stronger message on Iraq and terrorism and less Vietnam-centered. I wish there had been a stronger more unifying theme like "responsibility." And I REALLY wish that Shrum hadn't botched the strategy.

As for Begala's themes, you're right that Kerry did hit on all of them. But I think what Begala had recommended was that they zero in on one or two and relentlessly hammer them. One thing I'm realizing as I look back is that Kerry had lots of promising messages and themes, but the campaign tended to drop things rapidly. It never stuck with anything. And I wish that with all those criticisms Begala listed, they had come out with a clear unifying theme to them - again, responsibility.

I just really wanted to win. And I really wanted to wake up Jan. 21 to President Kerry - I really like Kerry. But I'm sorry if I sounded overly angry and overly critical.

[sandnsea]

38. Mad at the "strategists"

Not you. BTW, did you know Kerry was up in almost all the polls in August? The whole no bump from the convention was bullshit. The media killed him with that line, it hurt as much as the swiftboat garbage. I thought the convention was terrific. I think the number of people who stand by John Kerry, after all these years, is a testament to the man. Where are George's old buddies? There aren't any, just a bunch of asskissers who fix everything for him.

I think he tried to unify those themes, into accountability. Is George Bush and this administration accountable for anything? I mean really, Kerry won all 3 debates and at least half of America shrugged its shoulders. I believe what one person wrote somewhere, George Bush could have walked on the debate stage and taken a dump and his supporters would have cheered. Something sick and bizarre has taken over this country, that's really all there is to it.

And maybe the voting machines!

[Cheswick2.0]

54. that is just the problem... too many themes... .I think Begala said pick

a couple. That is campaign 101 and Ms Cahill should know that.

[KT2000]

37. Kerry versus bush

bush has made so many mistakes in the last 4 years and his behavior during the campaign was bizarre! He babbled like an idiot during the debates, he lied on the campaign trail. He had no plan he just inspired fear.
How could anyone have voted for him?
Kerry would have had to babble like an idiot himself to even come close to being as bad a candidate as bush. It just does not make sense.

[jsw_81]

41. Babbling like an idiot would have made Kerry more popular in red-states

The "heartland" rubes would have been able to identify with him.

[George_S]

43. Water under the bridge.

We'll get 'em next time.

[usrbs]

47. What in the world makes you say that?

If we failed against an incompetent, inarticulate jerk who had lead us into disaster in Iraq; lost jobs, the first president since Hoover to do so; racked up the biggest deficit in history after having inherited a huge surplus; and has all but declared war on the environment, then pray tell me why you think we have any chance of winning in 2008.

By then, with redistricting, voter suppression, and other dirty tricks, up to and including fraud, we'll be firmly enmeshed in the minority.

The truth is, we don't stand a chance, unless the conservative point of view is shown up to be as bankrupt as it is by the series of disasters BushCo creates.

[George_S]

56. And that's why we shouldn't blame our own party.

Divide and conquer is an effective offensive tactic. Sure, everyone in the Dem party is looking at what went wrong and they will fix it for next time, so it seems to me we at the grassroots level could better spend out time on uniting and figuring out how to frame our values in a more acceptable light: more positively.

[Hubert Flottz]

44. Diebold, ES&S and Blackwell had a lot to do with it!

Plus the fact that the electronic voting machine bill never got out of committee, because of the Nazi like takeover of the US House of Representatives by DeLay and crew! Our guys knew this election was going to be stolen!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

48. Kerry lost becuase he voted for the war.

Which effectively removed the possibility of hitting Bush where he was most vulnerable. "But, Senator, you voted for it." And, Kerry's inability to do anything but speak vaguely about an obviously unworkable "plan" to "win the war".

Aside from that, his tepid performance as a candidate and pandering to the right was hardly inspiring.

Pity the sacrificial goose.

[fujiyama]

49. Here's another article

you may find interesting.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?pt=/WAOQoLsGzQE5FcT6qGE0x=...

It all is very frustrating. There were clearly mistakes made. Lockheart and others did what they could but Shrum simply blows...and it doesn't help that Kerry made some statements which made it way too easy for Rove to create some nasty ads (I voted for it before voting against it...RE $87B).

It's too bad. I agree that Kerry would have made a great president.

[robcon]

50. The election IS over

I have read (almost) all the posts on DU about election fraud, and I don't see any reason for believing there was any significant fraud in the election.

It's over. We lost. Let's win in 2006.

[sendero]

51. In modern politics..

.... it is a singularly bad idea to nominate a Senator. If he voted on anything it can be spun against him, if he didn't vote, that can be spun against him.

No senator has won since the first JFK and none is likely to ever win.

We've got to stop letting Iowa and New Hampshire pick our nominee, they are not representative of our party.

[Patiod]

52. Right-wing control of the media

Maybe the Kerry campaign should have done this or that, or maybe Kerry should have voted this way or that, but do you know how many otherwise-reasonable people are getting their news from the right-wing controlled media?

Faux and MS-GOP are the obvious ones, but I think CNN is trying to compete with Faux for viewers, and the conventional networks are bending over backward to be "fair" and give "equal time" to frauds like the Swiftboat Liars ("You don't balance out truth by putting on a liar")

As long as the average Joe and Jane, who are not on blogs and are not following all the ins-and-outs of politics are getting all their information filtered by people like Rupert Murdoch, we are going to continue to lose.

[Cheswick2.0]

55. No guts........ we lost it because Kerry has NO GUTS

He rolled over when move-on had a commercial about bush's AWOL. The media told him to pull it and he had it pulled. Did Bush do the same with the swiftboat adds? Hell no!

He rolled when he voted for the IWR believing he would look bad if the war was popular. Instead of doing what was right he did what was immoral and politically expedient.

If you believe that BBV did him in, then he rolled for the last two years when he failed to address the issue and again when he conceded before the facts were in.