Wasn't "Jeanne" blowing out to sea?

[Jack_Dawson]

WTF happened? Do hurricanes normally backtrack like that? Is this The Rapture?

[nostamj]

1. well, Ivan went as far as PA

and then turned back south and hit FL again....

anything's possible

[Jack_Dawson]

3. Not exactly...

That was a "spinoff" of Ivan that stayed in the Caribbean.

[nostamj]

5. nope.

didn't "stay" - it came back and crossed FL again. not as a hurricane, of course, but a remant of of Ivan...

heavily reported on MSNBC over the last couple of days...

[SW FL Dem]

9. Actually Ivan did loop back

The remnants went off the East coast, south to Florida where it crossed back into the Gulf (right over my head). It then reformed as a Tropical Depression, became a TS and is now dumping rain on Texas/Louisiana.

[Warpy]

13. For a real laugh

Check out the loop of the projected Jeanne storm tracks at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE_graphics.shtml

This storm has a mind of its own, and Ivan got as far as Pa, turned around, looped back, drenched southern Florida, eastern Texas, and seems determined to hit Houston before it heads back out to sea.

It's almost enough to make me believe in that vengeful Hebrew god.


Nah.

[Jack_Dawson]

15. That IS funny

Jeanne is Schizo...typical woman.

[Warpy]

16. Ivan would never stop and ask for directions

Typical man

[Jack_Dawson]

17. LOL!!! n/t

[Carla in Ca]

25. Someone here a few days ago, as a joke, said

that * needs his own personal hurricane to get him...then Jeanne comes back. Whoa.

[maxsolomon]

2. florida repent & put kerry up in the polls

then hurricane season will 'magically' disappear.

you have only yourselves to blame.

[Jack_Dawson]

4. Jeb put Nader on the Ballot

Somebody higher up is pissed.

[tanyev]

6. Anyone remember why Jonah was

swallowed by the whale in the Bible story? He was on a ship that was caught in a terrible storm. They threw Jonah overboard and "the sea ceased its raging."

Maybe it's time to throw Jeb overboard.

[anchorsaweigh7903]

7. Meteorology from a Meteorologist

Yes, Hurricane Jeanne had a 70% probability of treking to the northern Atlantic, where then it would become an extra-tropical low and Frontogenisize to become just another cold frontal system to impact the European Continent:::However

Jeane instead defied all of our Forecasting models and basically hitch-hiked on it's current path by way of some upper lever trofs. Trofs are the "steering mechanisms" in weather, and usually form about 20-30,000 feet in the atmosphere. Basically (to put it short and simple) Jeanne was strengthened by a series of upper level trofs and then caught a westerly wind and gained speed to the west. The models were also hoping a front that was crossing the Pond at the time would steer it northerly, but the front frontolicized (broke down) and turned into trofs.Just shows no matter how hard we try, mother nature always has her hands cupped around our prostate! Hope that cleared some things up ;)

-anchs (Your not-so-local friendly weather guy)

[Jack_Dawson]

11. Pretty Cool - Thx...

but isn't it "troughs"?

[anchorsaweigh7903]

18. Yes if you are a barn animal

Trofs are atmospheric Phenomena

[Jack_Dawson]

21. Wrong

http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=upper-level-trough1

So what meteorology school was that again?

:-)

[anchorsaweigh7903]

26. Analyze this

In under 30 minutes and brief 30 pilots and 4 admirals and their staff since you know what you are talking about.






This is what I do, I know what I'm talking about. Trof is an actual term we use on maps, reports, etc etc. such as...

1. SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR SATURDAY 25 SEP 2004 AT 0400L: LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF GENOA SEE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH OVER ITALY.
2. WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NAPLES AND GAETA: NONE.
3. FORECAST FOR TODAY (25/0600L - 25/1800L)
A. CLOUDS/WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS.
B. VISIBILITY(NM): UNRESTRICTED, REDUCING 4-6 IN RAINSOWERS.
C. WINDS(KTS):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 5-8.
GAETA: NE 8-11.
OUTER HARBORS: NE 10-15.
D. SEAS(FT):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 1-3.
GAETA: NE 2-3.
OUTER HARBORS: N 3-5.
E. MAX TEMP: 69F/21C
4. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT (25/1800L - 26/0600L)
A. CLOUDS/WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS.
B. VISIBILITY(NM): UNRESTRICTED, REDUCING 4-6 IN SHOWERS.
C. WINDS(KTS):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 10-15.
GAETA: NE 10-15.
OUTER HARBORS: NE 15-20.
D. SEAS(FT):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 1-3.
GAETA: NE 1-3.
OUTER HARBORS: N 2-4.
E.MIN TEMP: 53F/12C.
5. FORECAST FOR TOMORROW (26/0600L - 26/1800L)
A. CLOUDS/WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD SHOWERS.
B. VISIBILITY(NM): UNRESTRICTED,REDUCING 4-6 IN RAINSHOWERS.
C. WINDS(KTS):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 5-8.
GAETA: SE 5-8.
OUTER HARBORS: E 10-15.
D. SEAS(FT):
INNER HARBOR- NAPLES: NE 1-2.
GAETA: E 1-2.
OUTER HARBORS: E 1-3.
E. MAX TEMP: 68F/20C MIN TEMP: 53F/12C.
6. OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY: LOW PRESSURE WITH ASST. >>>> TROF MOVES OVER AEGEAN SEA WHILE
INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL MED PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-8 KNOTS.
7. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR OUTER HARBORS: 73-76F.
8. SOLAR/LUNAR DATA FOR TODAY 25 SEP 2004:
A. SUNRISE: 0654L SUNSET: 1854L
B. MOONRISE: 1811L MOONSET: 0222L ILLUMINATION: 88%.
9. YESTERDAYS 24 SEP 2004 STATISTICS:
A. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES: 77F/25C 68F/20C.
B. BAROMETER COMPARISON:
0000L 24 SEP 2004: 29.760INS/1018.0MB.

I would rather not argue over childish things, by the way it was Keesler AFB, AG "A" and "C" school, working on a bachelors through UMASS right now to secure a spot @ NOAA when I leave the military.


CIAO!!
-anchs

[fob]

8. WOW! It now looks like a giant beer bottle! That thing is gonna

get Florida WASTED!

[Sub Atomic]

10. I was just looking at the tracking projections.

I wonder why gawd hates the southeast so much?

[anchorsaweigh7903]

12. dweeb

Check out this site if Hurricanes interest you...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

It is the infinite source of Hurricane Knowledge. Most of our (Naval Weather) schooling is by professors or apprentices at NOAA SPC and NHC.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

14. this is more bothersome

another MAJOR hurricane...bordering on CAT3...FL cannot catch a break this year

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104I+GIF/241453I.gif

theProdigal

[Silverhair]

19. It happens sometimes.

In 1985 I was in a hurricane that was headed for Mississipi, then turned to go straight East to FL, the skies cleared, then it came back and hit us in MS.

[Silverhair]

20. After a couple of more hurricanes I left MS.

I got tired of getting nervous every August. My house was one block off the beach. Now I am hundreds of miles inland - in tornado alley. Oh Well.

[MaryH]

22. That was before she was blowing into Florida

She's a flip-flopper!

[hatrack]

23. It will blow out to sea - via Florida, Georgia & NC, that's all! nt

.

[ewagner]

24. Look at these probabilities

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.4N 76.6W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4
26.8N 78.9W 8 23 X X 31 KEY WEST FL X 2 4 1 7
27.9N 80.7W X 14 9 1 24 MARCO ISLAND FL X 5 9 1 15
MYSM 241N 745W 5 X X X 5 FT MYERS FL X 4 11 2 17
MYEG 235N 758W 2 X X X 2 VENICE FL X 1 12 3 16
MYAK 241N 776W 4 6 X X 10 TAMPA FL X 1 13 4 18
MYNN 251N 775W 17 6 X X 23 CEDAR KEY FL X X 10 7 17
MYGF 266N 787W 10 21 1 X 32 ST MARKS FL X X 2 12 14
MARATHON FL X 4 5 1 10 APALACHICOLA FL X X 2 11 13
MIAMI FL X 16 2 1 19 PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 11 12
W PALM BEACH FL 1 20 3 X 24 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL X 20 4 1 25 MOBILE AL X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL X 14 9 1 24 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 4 14 3 21 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 10 8 18 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
SAVANNAH GA X X 4 11 15 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC X X 2 11 13 GULF 29N 85W X X 2 11 13
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 9 10 GULF 29N 87W X X X 8 8
WILMINGTON NC X X X 8 8 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


What amazes me is the set of probabilities on Florida's WEST COAST