Do you THINK (not 'believe' or 'hope') Kerry will win that election ?

[Rochambeau]

I wish you could give me, since from France I may be too far away from the situation, your most 'rational feeling' about the final result of the election, now, a few weeks from it.

I really wish you can all speak a depassionated way and so I wish those who may say 'no' will not be accused of beiing pessimistic or defeatist or whatever...

Thank you all.

[Libby2]

1. Howdy

Yes, I think he will.

Average Americans are sick of the lies.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Yes

the huge number of untapped new voters who are registering like there was no tomorrow

[liberalnurse]

3. I don't believe you.

That your are from France.......right wingers love to associate democratic liberals with the French.

[Fescue4u]

36. Yea, nobody really lives in France.

Its just a made up place

???

[gospelized]

4. i do think he will win.

it's the logical conclusion.

there are MASSIVE movements of people trying to get bush out of office. these people aren't reflected in polls. the most youth EVER are registered and ready to vote.

[natrat]

47. if it is close he looses

because of imminent vote fraud--rethugs will do whatever it takes w/ no compunction. They have no problem w/ murder so vote fraud is a given.

[flpeach]

5. Yes!

Deep deep down in my heart I do believe Kerry will be our next Abraham Lincoln. He was born for this, and we will have him!!

[wurzel]

6. Kerry will have the most votes. But that doesn't ensure the White House.

[Crunchy Frog]

7. Honestly,

some days I think he will, some days I think he won't. It really goes up and down.

Probably as the election gets closer my feelings will solidify more. One factor is that this election is not like any other that I've seen. I have never seen the media so monolithically under the control of the Republicans, or felt so much like there isn't anything that they wouldn't do to make sure they take the White House again. I've never felt that Kerry was entirely aware of just what it is that he's up against, but maybe I'm wrong about that.

We'll really just have to wait and see what happens.

[WilliamPitt]

8. Yes

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

9. It is a matter of knowing, not hoping or wishing

I have tried to explain to overseas friends what they are missing that leads them to think Kerry will not win. No matter how numerous the news sources, no matter how widespread the Web, there is information that comes from being here in the middle of it that is not relayed to those outside it. Beyond the rational explanations there is a sense, but that sense is not a wish and not a prayer. It is information received in a myriad ways that culminates in knowledge. It's in the gut. My gut is informed by information and observation, and it knows Kerry will win.

[Rochambeau]

30. Thank you, you perfectly understand the sense of that thread. n/t

[napi21]

10. I don't know. Anyone who says differently is kidding themselves.

There are way too many variables in this campaign ti even take an educated guess.

Problem is, most people tend to have a circle of friends who agree with them, so they tend to think everyone thinks the same.

I try to get a feel for how most people thnks by listening to The Washington Journal every day, but I can't tell even from that.

The closest true statement I heard in a very long time was made just yesterday, by a Pub. "There are more Dems in the US than Pubs. If a high % of Dems turn out and vote, they will win!"

I don't know of any way to predict that.

[Beam Me Up]

11. No, I do NOT think so.

I don't believe that those who put George W. Bush in the office of the President of the United States, those who allowed and or perpetrated the events of 9/11 and subsequent to it, and those who wanted to initiate a two front war in the Middle East and succeeded in doing so using lies, deceit and counterfeit terror -- I don't believe they will ALLOW him to be removed simply because a majority of people in this country don't approve of his policies.

I hope and pray I'm wrong. John Kerry is a good man, an intelligent man and a man of vision. We NEED a man of his stature in the White House to help us face the very real crises that will soon be upon us. But at this point we are so far down the rabbit hole that these very real issues and crises can not even be intelligently and openly discussed except in forums such as this. Virtually none of it makes it to mainstream, corporate owned, electronic media. We -- and by "we" I mean not only the US but the whole of humanity -- are in DEEP SHIT.

[still_one]

12. Yes, and for a very logical reason

there are quite a few undecided this time

They are not undecided about bush. They know bush and do NOT like him

When they get into the voting booths Kerry will get their vote

18 - 24 year olds are not being counted, Kerry will also get their vote

[AndyTiedye]

13. If Our Voters Aren't "Supressed", and Our Votes Are Counted, We Will Win

just as we would have won a fair election in 2000.

[Emillereid]

14. Unless the dynamic changes radically in the next several weeks I

regrettably have to acknowledge what the polls are all saying -- and that is that the momentum is with Bush and Kerry looks like he's going to lose. I am holding out hope that the debates or some event or God will change the course and bring about a Kerry win, but since you ask what we dispassionately think, not what we hope, my assessment on the ground right now is that Kerry is going to lose.

BTW, how easy is it to emigrate to France -- because if Bush does win, I'm outta here -- not hanging around waiting for the boot to drop and become one of the disappeared. My experiences at airports has already frightened me enough! They've got my name and I'm sure they know my home address!

[Rochambeau]

33. I will not answer you about emigrating to France

Sorry for my tone but I'll not answer you because I don't want you in France ! I want you in USA, fighting for making things change, fighting to protect your democracy if Bush wins. That image on posters of Uncle Sam pointing his finger to call the patriots, that image is for you. If Bush wins, America will need the true patriots more then ever in her history maybe.

[Emillereid]

48. You don't understand -- these guys are fascists.

Imagine what life will be like if Bush gets back in -- I'll probably be disappeared. I'd rather do my own disappearing to a new country. I can't do much fighting from inside a concentration camp!

[jpgray]

15. Yes

Especially considering the amount of new voters that will come into play. The Gallup poll, for example, has a sample of something like 38% Repub and 32% Democratic, whereas in 2000 the voters were something like 40% Democratic and 38% Republican. So I'm fairly confident, but the media are doing a lot to discourage people, and many DUers are more than happy to pile on in that regard.

[kayell]

16. I think, in fact I'm sure, that most of the votes placed will be for Kerry

Beyond that I don't want to speculate, other than to say we better all work our asses off now until Nov. 2.

And again from then until January 20.

[stellanoir]

17. If the election was to be won with rational thought,

Kerry would win by a landslide. He seems to have lived an exemplary life dedicated to public service. He has a conscience. He has diverse talents, interests, has travelled the world, is learned, and is multi-lingual.

* has not dedicated his life to anything but his own self interests and those of his cronies. He has bankrupted several businesses, looted the surplus, ignored terrorism (prior to 9/11) sullied the environment, angered the world, mismanaged the military, ignored the Geneva Conventions and international law, and started three wars that he has no clue how to finish.

But alas, America has not been thinking or responding rationally since December 20, 2000 and even less so since 9/11.

The media, the polls, and the voting machines are of deep concern.

I wish there was more rationality in this land but sadly, currently there is not. Many have been bullied into decisions based on fear rather than logic.

I'm still hopeful though, because we simply can't go on like this.

Il ne jamais trop tarde.

[Toucano]

18. Kerry will win. n/t

[YellowRubberDuckie]

19. After what I've seen this week...I'm having trouble with it.

Don't flame me, I'm thinking positive, but these freaks are so snowed and violent, I'm worried.
Duckie

[Spazito]

20. Simple common sense says Kerry will win...

Voters who chose Gore in 2000 will not be voting for Kerry, not bush. Of the voters that chose Nader in 2000, many are now voting for Kerry. The 18-25 year olds are registering and, given they are of draft age, common sense says the majority will NOT be voting for bush.

bush is under 50% approval rating and, historically, that means he will not get a second term.

The incumbent has the advantage yet bush is barely polling even with the challenger.

The desperation that is being shown by the bush campaign tells me that their internals are not looking good.

[mahina]

21. Why, yes I do.

And here's why.
Yesterday's primary in a state that polled last week at 51 % Kerry, 41% *, the candidates going to the general election received the following votes:

US Senate
Inouye (bigD) 87,602
Cavasso (r-antichoice) 10,445

US House
Abercrombie (bigD, 100% PEACEACTION rating) 37,688
Tanonaka (r-elitist) 13,846

Case (bigD, worked in Patsy Mink's office, who was a giant voice for justice and the ONLY other rep to stand with the Black Caucus during the protest of the theft of 00, my hero) 44,906
Gabbard r-hate-filled homophobe)11,042

So that's like what, at the worst, 2.5-1 for the Dems? 8.7-1 for the senate race?
Oh yeah. We're pissed.

Monsieur Boosh, step right this way s'il vous plait....
And BTW I don't believe you either.

[Indy65]

22. Kerry will win.

Ignore The Gallup Polls
because th Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans and only 33% will be Democrat.
In the polls, Gallup over samples greatly for the GOP, and Under sampled for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this
s whole election season, for their national and state polls.
The Left Coaster
You can read the whole article on Bussfalsh.

[catmandu57]

23. Yes I do

The moron* was an unknown in 2000, he has a record now and anyone with any sense knows what he has brought, polls be damned.
I've never heard anyone who voted for Gore saying they were going to vote reptile, and on the other hand there are many people who voted for w* who now wish they hadn't.
Yes, we will carry the day.

[Snotcicles]

24. There is a cult

in this country, and it is mainly in the south, they just can't think on there own. This group of people are very tribal. Relaying on there leaders ( religious or political) they do as they are told. They believe THE WORD and don't question it. If they dare, they would be ridiculed. The republican party has found there weak spot and they have managed to over take there psyche. Not only have they control of this segment of our population, but they have convinced the media they will maintain control of the government. Therefore the media has colluded with this power to keep access, and maintain status quo. Otherwise it would take skill in journalism of which they are incapable.

[Beam Me Up]

28. "mainly in the south" ?

I don't buy that. And I don't buy that those who "managed to over take there (sic) psyche" is the "republican party". It goes much higher up that that.

[Snotcicles]

31. Good point n/t

[Eloriel]

25. Wrong Question -- the right question is:

Do you think Bush will SUCCEED in stealing this election too?

I personally had been optimistic about our chances, but not in the last week or two. I have a growing sense of gloom about it, and I don't know what could be done. I obviously hope I'm wrong.

[G_j]

40. this is the answer I would also give to you..

"Do you think Bush will SUCCEED in stealing this election too?"
--

Presonally I feel confident that in a fair election Kerry would win.

I can almost guarentee they will attempt to steal it.
Florida is already supressing voters.

[barb162]

42. agree with your last paragraph although I hate even writing this

Kerry is not catching on or something and the voters keep giving Bush every damn benefit of the doubt as the "war" (what a joke) prez. Except none of this is a joke. Bush flipflops and lies like crazy and no one seems to hold it against him. It is almost as if he is untouchable no matter how much he messes up this country and the world.

[Eloriel]

46. Kerry's getting virtually no press (broadcast, anyway)

while Bush is totally and completely let off the hook again and again and again by the media. The smallest transgression by any Democrat is magnified all out of proportion while the most egregious lies and failures of Bush are just ignored.

MOST AMERICANS get their news from broadcast media, period. If they don't KNOW any of the reasons that Bush is the worst U.S. "President" ever, they can hardly be expected to act on those facts.

Too, the polls are routinely oversampling Republicans, which skews them in favor of Bush.

I once heard that only about 10% of the American public pay any real attention to politics (and half of them, at least, must be conservatives), so again, people only know what they hear from network and cable.

My feelings on the probable outcome of this election really have nothing to do with Kerry or the kind of campaign he's running or anything else about him. I'm personally not crazy about him (and probably never will be), but in such an environment there's not a lot he can do (or fail to do) which is going to have that much of an effect one way or another.

WSe here at DU KNOW that there are gobs of Republicans and "True Conservatives" who are fed up with him. We know that he's abused the military enough that a good number of them have turned against him. We know that there are many NEW people "waking up" to how important this election is and either registering or deciding to vote again for the first time in a while. Etc., etc. But THEY know this too, and I believe are taking appropriate steps to overcome this "problem" to their continued tenure in power.

[barb162]

50. agree again and TV , especially the talk shows like Scarborough

and so many others like that are killing the Democrats. And the "news" is also slanted against Kerry. So many times over the last few weeks I am hearing how "tired" all this stuff is about Bush during Vietnam but I didn't hear that of the Swifties. The same people who seemed so interested in following up on every last word of the Swifties aren't following up on the Bush AWOL records. The in-depth reporting and investigation I saw 20 and more years ago seems to have disintegrated.

If Kerry doesn't win, I just don't know what I am going to do. A friend of mine tries calming me down by saying well, let Bush win, then he will have to clean up Iraq himself. But I told him, he wont clean it up at all; it will just get worse and it will turn into another Vietnam, there will be a draft on 11/3 and he will send in more and more and more troops. Thank you but no thanks, I already lived through Vietnam.

primal scream

[kaitykaity]

26. Yes, I do.

I honestly, sincerely, most definitely believe that Kerry
will win this election.

I have three reasons for this:

1) The American people are not stupid enough to let Bush
insanity go on. I know of several former Bush supporters who
are supporting Kerry, and I don't know ANY Gore folks who are
supporting Bush.

2) Rumor has it John Kerry is a great closer. I heard about
what he did to Weld, and I saw with my own eyes what he did
to Dean.

3) And three, there alternative is too horrible to contemplate.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. Maybe. But, I have my doubts.

Kerry has finally started to speak up about Iraq. Not volubly enough, yet. In order to win this election he will have to come out against the war and offer a realistic way out. So far, all he is doing is nibbling around the edges instead of confronting the most important issue facing the nation.

Beyond that, Bush and his coterie of wannabee empire builders, have the ability to launch any number of plausible "surprises". A "preventative" air strike on Iran. A major "offensive" in Iraq. Throw in all the flagwaving, the heroic pilots/troops, some arcade game pictures of things blowing up, a bunch of rugged looking generals in cool camis assuring us that "we have turned the corner", add a couple of choruses of "God Bless America" and a group of BlairDemocrats yakking about "Support Our Troops", and, voila, "patriotism" trumps common sense.

[Dem_Loyalist]

29. Yes, yes I do think Kerry will win

Even with all the negatives we see from the rights 527's, with the media rather hostile to him, even with all the fear being perpetuated about terrorism to back up the bushies I think JFK's message will get out. In spite of what you might hear most Americans still think of the French as solid allies. Thanks for asking.

[951]

32. I hope but we will see in november n/t

[Darranar]

34. Maybe. It's still unclear at this point. n/t

[the_right_is_wrong]

35. hmm

but he is doing so badly in the polls. who believes the polls in here?

[Snotcicles]

39. Polls are like Michigan weather n/t

[William Seger]

37. Yes!

The Swift Boat liars did a lot of damage, destroying Kerry's lead going into the RNC. The Kerry-trashing at the RNC did a little more damage (though not as much as Republicans hoped, I suspect). But those are already fading, with more and more people starting to realize it was all political bullshit.

Bush*'s major problem is he has painted himself into a corner having to defend how "pleased" he is about how things are going in Iraq, even as the situation is clearly deteriorating. It's impossible, I think, for many people to not start noticing the difference between the news reports coming out of Iraq and what Bush* is saying. What else can they conclude but that Bush is either delusional or a liar? And it's impossible, I think, for those people to not recall how we got into this mess: being mislead by the same (delusional or lying?) guy who is now telling us he's the best person to deal with threats. Kerry has to keep hitting Bush* about this -- hard! -- but it's reality that's likely to bring Bush* down now, and there's plenty of time left for that to happen.

[Zen Democrat]

38. Don't believe our media. We have no "free press" except on the internet.

[belle]

41. At this point? Anybody's guess...I just don't know.

There are so many factors right now it is hard to see clearly. I certainly think he has a good shot,polls or no polls. I keep feeling like I'm waiting for ...something...to happen. I don't know what it is or how rational this feeling is. The debates I suppose; but maybe...I don't know.

[William Bloode]

43. Well from what i see....

At this very particular moment right now it's very, very close. But i do believe Kerry can pull it out with just this far to go. The problems we have seen were well forseen even back in May/June when it was known we would have to suffer the 1-2 punch of 1:not being able to spend the funds in Aug after the convention to defend themselves. 2:The onslaught of the RNC.

Now we see the effects of the above wearing away, coupled with new problems in Iraq. The shake up's in the Kerry camp will also play a role, as i can see nothing but good from using Carville, and Begala.

So yes i fell pretty good about Kerry winning, but it's been a rough 30-45 days. One thing i know for sure Bush is so ripe for a fall, it's Kerry's too lose.

[Terran]

44. Yes, I think he will win

I think the Bushies are in for a shock on 11/02/04.

[flvegan]

45. Not THINK, I KNOW

Kerry will win. There's just too much, and there will be more. More folks waking up every day to reality, the truth and the lies. He could pull Osama outta his ass, clutching a nuke, go "ta-da!" and still lose.

I tell ya, if judges hand it to him again, I do believe rioting will ensue...

[Clinton Crusader]

49. In an HONEST election, yes, but

if th Diebold Conspriacy takes hold, hold onto your hats..
:kick:

[PATRICK]

51. A qualified "think so"?

I think with consideration of many base realities, that despite the opinion and issue frenzy that clouds TV pundit judgment every &*^%* time Kerry is a shoe in. Really these expert jerks are the same ones who would be making arguments that Buffalo will win the Super Bowl this year because they have prettier cheerleaders and will cheat.

But...

the imponderables- that underlying public awareness are also moving our way- but only trending. That people EXPECT Bush dirt, cheating and even vote fraud. This is still too vague and still too poorly opposed. Our sliding media propaganda machine is discredited but still functioning enough to pull off a major coup for Bush in the national forum slant. The worst probably was throwing the election to Bush as if he was not seizing the presidency on gamed and illegal technicalities. Even as more ekes out over the years this is a buried fact. In other words people get a lot, enough to make them infuriated but not enough to understand enough, not enough to inoculate themselves against more deceptions. The imponderables, unfortunately take an act of faith. In that area I believe(sorry) there are individuals sneaking in the corridors of power without a monitor pass
who would work mightily to undo or prevent a new Bush surprise. Unfortunately the media lets them all down and throws them first to the wolves and then to oblivion.

But some do their duty anyway. Only the invisible, the silenced, are making us safer.

[orpupilofnature57]

52. America, where are you wow

Unfortunately i see that it's easier to believe and hope than to think.That's how Skippy and his bunch slip through.Thinking has saved more lives,than hoping and believing put together.I want JOHN KERRY to win...

[Rochambeau]

53. Thank you all for those very interesting posts

In France, I may be wrong, but it seems like the medias are starting now to prepare us to a Bush victory. At the least many correspondents of many french medias seem to believe now Bush will win (France2, LCI among others...). The good thing is that it's a few years now since our media talking heads are shamefully wrong each time they try to predict an election in another country, like Canada or Spain. They are, in France like in many other countries, completly disconnected with the peoples. So, it may be a good sign ! :)
My personnal feeling is changing every day, one day confident, the other desperate. It's hard to maintain the spirits up when you can do nothing (or barely), when you're only a spectator.

One very little thing I can do here is to tell you to be sure that we are standing besides you, for peace and democracy. Go democrats ! Go America! Go Kerry ! :kick:

[Quahog]

54. Sadly, no

And I don't think it would have mattered if the Dems had nominated fucking Superman, I think the fix is in. We're clearly being set up for a "too close to call" election by the media, when anyone who has actually TALKED to anyone in their community knows that bush* is widely seen as a pariah and Kerry should win in a landslide.

And yet the "poll numbers" continue streaming in: Women love bush! Hispanics love bush! New York and Illinois and Pennsyvania love bush! His popularity grows by the minute! He will even take California and New Jersey!!

We all know this is bullshit. Anyone with half a brain knows this is bullshit. But this way, when the election results come in and bush* just barely squeaks by, everyone will say, "Well, we KNEW it was going to be close." Some will suggest that this scale of election fraud is not possible. But I disagree. Look what these fucking bastards have managed to pull off up to this point. Half the fucking morans in this country think things are going WELL in Iraq. Look what they've managed to do with 9-11, the most high-visibility event in that last 20 years, the tragedy about which more Americans care more than just about anything else that's happened in their lifetimes, and the BFEE has just BURIED the truth, they've told us in no uncertain terms to shut up, fuck off and mind our own business if we're not with al-Qaeda. And we're taking it. Americans are buying the line that it's "in the best interest of national security" to just shut the fuck up and eat the plate of shit we're being served.

I'm sorry, but I've just about given up. I think there are powers at work here that we don't even begin to understand, I think that these BFEE criminals are probably reading our little web site and laughing their goddam asses off. Because they know something we don't know. And that something is going to be the end of the United States as we know it. With trillions of dollars at your disposal, you can buy any damn thing you want, including the demise of democracy. Even the constitution has a price.

I hope I'm wrong, but I THINK I'm right, to answer your quesiton. If bush* miraculously "wins" this election, I am taking my family out of here. I'm not going to have my children offered up as a part of the harvest of American corpses that will be the coming generation under this perpetual fascist regime.