How accurate are the polls?

[still_one]

Things were fairly good for us before the repubs convention then everything went bad. What changed in such a short period of time. Their convention of hate was NOT that good. Am I wrong?

What bothers me is that bush has screwed up so badly, and yet it appears that we don't have much of a chance based on gallop and other polls

I know, we can look at Zogby, Rassmeusen, and others, but you hear "so-called" people critisize those polls saying their methodology is flawed

[aeolian]

1. I tend to doubt the polls

I can't beleive that a poll of a few hundred people who actually answer the phone during dinner is truly representative.

[newyawker99]

10. Hi aeolian!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TexasSissy]

2. The closer we get to election, the more accurate, I think.

Gallup typically favors Bush more than other polls. Time, too.

I generally look at all the polls to get an idea of the trend, and throw out any that don't jive with the others, even if it's favorable to Kerry.

Zogby, BTW, was I think the ONLY poll to correctly state that Kerry would win the Iowa caucuses.

[UdoKier]

3. You mean THESE polls?

They could be better for us, but I wouldn't be getting too smug right now if I was Bush...

[papau]

5. In 2000 most had Gore losing by 10 11/6/00-a few were close - like Zogby -

even the Fox News Last poll only showed a close race.

I watch them for trends within the same polling organization.

[still_one]

7. Yes, he has lost approval, but so have we

I wonder if they have been having groups doing "push-polling" like they did to McCain in South Carolina?

I can almost hear the call:

If you knew Kerry was involved with the communist party during Viet Nam would that affect your decision to vote for him?

I am very concerned about that kind of crap

[BJ]

4. I got "push" polled yesterday.

All the questions were invalid because the only possible answers supported Bush, the Repiglican Party and the NRA.

Like the "Wizard" said:"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"

[tom_paine]

6. As accurate as a Soviet or Nazi poll. As accurate as a Khmer Rouge poll

Not qutie so hamfisted of course.

"99.9% of citizens approve of the work of the Khmer Rouge. The other 0.1% have not been located."

Be thankful the Amerikan Empire is not yet there. I wouldn't make bets for 2050 though.

[RichardRay]

8. Don't look at just one poll just once

Rather look at a collection of them every day for some time.

The http://www.electoral-vote.com">Electoral Vote Predictor is a good example. He takes all new polling data from some 16 different polls and keeps updating his model daily. He's very frank that that can throw any single day, or even a few days, into turmoil, but that the noise clears out over time. He gives you a list of the polls he uses and the data behind his maps and charts so that you can look at it critically, too. He also has some good links to sites that explain a bit about polling, how it's done well and how it gets screwed up, both intentionally and through methodological errors.

I like this site, although I don't always like what it's telling me.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[whistle]

9. They claim to be 95% confident that they reported results...

...within +/- 3.0%. What that means is that if the poll were to be repeated say a total of 100 times, 95 times the results that were being reported by the initial poll would come within +3.0 epercentage points to -3.0 percentage points. So if the current poll finds that Bush leads 47.1% to 46.0% for Kerry, that actually means that the results are 6.0 points around those 95 chances out a one hundred. Repeated polls taken unbder the exact same conditions could show Kerry leading about as many time as it shows Bush leading as well as showing both candidates tied in many cases. About 5 time in 100 the results might be significantly different than what is shown.

Look for trends not specific poll results. The trends show Kerry beating Bush. Over the coming weeks those trends will be more solidified and I am confident that Kerry will take back the lead and keep it going into the election. So, Bush will begin to fight dirtier as we near election day. Try this link:

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

[LSK]

11. NOT ACCURATE AT ALL

CORPORATE MEDIA

They are programming everyone to think its close so Bush steals the election.

[mr_du04]

12. beware the polls are nothing but,

a setup for chimpco to steal the election. If they can convince us that it is close enough of a race they can do their dirty deeds and get away with it.

[Dude_CalmDown]

13. I'll bet this one's pretty accurate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2352769