Ivan - Anyone's Guess Where It Will Strike

[althecat]

For the past few days the models have been moving steadily West. If this continues then Texas is definitely back in the frame.... & Florida and Cuba may get a respite...

[tedoll78]

1. What is NOGAPS?

I need to tell my parents.. :scared:

[slutticus]

9. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

n/t

[knowbody0]

10. ivan

how's everything at guantanamo?

[kayell]

13. Guantanmo is at the far eastern end of cuba/ Not in danger. nt

[Dudley_DUright]

2. I hope the blue path is incorrect (NOGAPS)

since New Orleans would be in great danger of catastrophic flooding if it was ultimately correct.

[Jacobin]

3. This one is my favorite...The Spaghetti Model

[Dudley_DUright]

6. Personally, I like the linear extrapolation model (red line)

the best and the yellow U turn thru Jacksonville the least.

[Ilsa]

4. And yet it is actually heading WNW, isn't it?

It was supposed to have hit Florida today and it hasn't. Since it stands a chance of not having to cross over Cuba, the strength may remain more intact, won't it? I'm beginning to think the front we had in Texas isn't going to push this storm far enough eastward.

[Wright Patman]

8. That front came through here

nearly a week ago in my part of Texas and now it's back to being in the 90s every day. Summer has come back with a vengeance.

But we could certainly use the rain if it were to track this far west. I'm 200 miles inland so I'm not worried about the wind by the time it would make it this far.

[Ilsa]

14. I think we still have the high pressure system sitting over us, though,

and that will drive Ivan eastward, if I'm not mistaken. We could use some rain here as well. Days are in the mid nineties, nights are falling to about 68-70 degrees. For a few days, we had slightly lower Low temps, but nothing like last month when that other front blew in.

BTW, I'm practically on the coast.

[bleedingheart]

5. All I know is that I feel bad for anyone in the path

and that I will get a lot of rain as a result...when people in Colorado need it more......my soil is already too moist.

[GoBlue]

7. Houston, we have a problem

eom

[sleipnir]

11. If it hits New Orleans, that city is history.

There's no way it will be able to withstand such a blow and the torrential rains will flood the area for years and years. I fear that the days of Girls Gone Wild and Mardi Gras are about to come to an abrupt end for that area, should Ivan hit.

What a loss it would be, historically and culturally, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of people who would permanently lose their homes and city. Let's hope New Orleans is spared the destruction of Ivan.

[nostamj]

12. on a totally personal level...

it seems my parents on the gulf coast (Venice) are looking pretty safe at this point.

but I totally agree that a hit of a storm like this on NO would be a historic disaster... and that's true so many locations along the projected paths...

scary shit

[TahitiNut]

15. Pensacola NAS.

:shrug:

[jab105]

16. Please not Pensacola...my motherinlaw lives there...

and she's in Navarre Beach, right on the water...if it hits there, she'll move in with us (she is hysterical, and called 8 times today)...and ummm...not sure...ummm...if I could handle that...