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8/3 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.7% ; POP. VOTE: 52.74% ; EV: 324

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 01:55 PM
Original message
8/3 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.7% ; POP. VOTE: 52.74% ; EV: 324
Edited on Tue Aug-03-04 02:05 PM by TruthIsAll
								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE FORECAST								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
Kerry:	52.74							
Bush:	47.26							
Spread:	5.47							
								
NATIONAL FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY						
15polls	Latest	Proj.				
Kerry:	47.93	52.88				
Bush:	45.00	47.12				
Spread:	2.93	5.76				
						
Kerry:	94.8%	probability of at least 50% of vote.				
						
						
STATE FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY SIMULATION						
Forecast  %    EV          						
Kerry:	52.59	324				
Bush:	47.41	214				
Spread:	5.19	110				
						
Kerry:	967	of 1000 simulation trial runs, 				
or a	96.7%	probability at least 270 electoral votes.				
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.72%	of the vote.				
Wins:	92.7%	of the trials. 				
Avg:	310	electoral votes.				
Max:	401	electoral votes.				
						
						
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 						
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.59%	of the vote.	
Wins:	96.7%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	324	electoral votes.	
Max:	411	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	53.46%	of the vote.	
Wins:	99.3%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	338	electoral votes.	
Max:	424	electoral votes.	
			
												


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS												
(in millions of votes)												
Dem	138.78	52.61%										
Rep	125.03	47.39%										

												

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.10	48	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.20	45	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	44

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE TREND												
Based on latest national polls from:						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME	

Kerry projection is the current average of these polls
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.																
Data source: PollingReport.com    											
						
	Avg Poll Trend		Projection			
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.0	49.4	-12.7	46.4	53.6	-7.1
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.6	44.0	4.6	53.8	46.2	7.5
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	47.8	44.0	3.8	53.5	46.5	7.1
June	47.1	44.7	2.4	52.8	47.2	5.7
July	48.1	45.0	3.1	52.9	47.1	5.9
Aug	50.0	44.2	5.8	54.1	45.9	8.1
						
KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES 						
Uses latest national poll (15) data						
Avg 	47.93%	 Latest 15 poll average (mean)											
+Alloc.	4.95%	+ 70% undecided/other 											
= Proj.	52.88%	 = Projected Kerry %								
											
Prob: 	94.81%	> 50% of popular vote											
													
.....Date.......Actual......Kerry%...Kerry% undecided/other 	
.....(mdd) Kerry	Bush	/Bush  50%	60%	70%	80%	90%		
TIME	722	50.0	45.0	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5			
FOX	721	44.0	43.0	50.6	50.5	51.8	53.1	54.4	55.7			
CNN	801	47.0	50.0	48.5	48.5	48.8	49.1	49.4	49.7			
LAT	721	48.0	46.0	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4			
PEW	718	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0				
													
IBD	724	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9				
CBS	730	49.0	43.0	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2	
DEMC	713	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	
ABC	802	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	
NWK	730	52.0	44.0	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6	
										
ZOGBY	729	48.0	43.0	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1	
AP	707	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4	
NBC	721	45.0	47.0	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2	
ARG	801	49.0	45.0	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4	
QPAC	722	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9	
										
Mean		47.93	45.00	51.57	51.47	52.17	52.88	53.59	54.29	
Stdev 	2.59	2.13	1.87	1.78	1.75	1.77	1.85	1.97	
Stdm		0.65	0.53	0.47	0.45	0.44	0.44	1.50	1.50	
										
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):										
Maximum     51.25	48.31	54.88	54.78	55.49	56.19	56.90	57.61		
Minimum     44.62	41.69	48.25	48.15	48.86	49.57	50.27	50.98		
x	      48.31	48.31	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00		
Prob > x    21.3% 0.9% 79.9% 79.5% 89.3% 94.8% 97.4%
98.5%		

Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):										
										
95% Confidence Limits										
Range	Kerry	Bush								
Max	53.02	49.17								
Min	42.85	40.83								
x	49.17	49.17								
Prob>x	31.6%	2.5%								
										
Probability:										
95.00%	Each within Max-Min Range									
31.63%	Kerry exceeds Bush Max								
2.50%	Bush exceeds his Max								
									
99% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Max	54.63	50.49							
Min	41.24	39.51							
x	50.49	50.49							
Prob>x	16.2%	0.5%							
									
Probability:									
99.0%	Each within Max-Min Range								
16.2%	Kerry exceeds Bush Max								
0.5%	Bush exceeds his Max								
									
									
Notes:								
Std = Standard Deviation (variability)								
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 								
								
95% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96 * Stdm								
								
99% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58 * Stdm								
								
Notes:								
NBC1 - Princeton Associates								
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal								
CNN - Gallup								
WP - ABC								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Percent Projections								
State vote: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote: Accumulated state projected votes weighted by
ratio of state/national votes for last three
elections.								
Probability of state win: based on projected vote %.								


Most Likely Case								
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry								
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV					
Kerry	96.7%	52.6%	324					
Bush	3.3%	47.4%	214					

Dem Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trial runs 1-10 of 1000									
-------	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.59%	96.7%	382	326	276	335	316	338	329	373	290	307
													
AL	44.8	41.0	1.2										
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10			10	10	10	10	10		10
AR	55.2	50.2	52.0	6	6		6	6		6		6	
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55		55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1	9			9			9	9	9	
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	52.1	70.0	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1	15	15						15		
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3								11		
													
IA	51.8	52.8	75.8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1	8		8			8		8	8	
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4	4	4	4	4	4		4		4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	65.8	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.1	84.7	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	54.8	88.5	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8	11	11		11		11	11	11		11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.3	62.7	5	5	5	5	5			5	5	
NH	51.7	55.9	93.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	57.0	96.0		15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	51.1	60.8	5		5			5	5			5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6	15			15						
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	48.1	31.7										
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	52.8	75.8	7	7	7	7		7		7		7
PA	54.2	54.4	86.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21		
RI	65.6	67.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6	8		8				8			
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7									3	
TN	50.5	51.1	60.8	11		11		11	11		11		11
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4	13	13	13	13		13		13		
WA	55.9	54.4	86.4	11	11	11	11	11		11		11	11
WV	54.0	53.6	81.6	5		5		5	5	5	5	5	5
WI	52.7	51.4	63.7					10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.59%	96.7%	382	326	276	335	316	338	329	373	290	307
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RummyTheDummy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. Numbers question
How would Kerry's numbers change in terms of probability of victory if you changed the percentage of undecideds going to Kerry/Other from 70 percent to 50 percent?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. 50% case: Kerry win prob 79.4%; 295 EV; 50.85%
tia
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WLKjr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
2. One Question TIA
What are you using to generate these numbers?
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RodneyCK2 Donating Member (813 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I was just going to ask this. Is there any link?
I tried pasting the numbers to show my friend but they are not formatted correctly, so a link would help. Thanks.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. There is no link. It is my own excel model.
tia
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Random numbers and the normal distrib function.
My own Excel model, using data from sources I cited in the post:

Electoral-vote.com
pollingreport.com
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WLKjr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. That's cool!
Must have had some time on your hands becuase it is very detailed and very cool!
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Tweed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. These numbers don't add up to much
What are the odds of Bush finding Osama Bin Laden?
What are the odds of a Democratic or Kerry sex scandal coming out?
What are the odds of the Republican National convention stirring people up?
What are the odds of the media whoring themselves out even more then they already have?

All of these things could happen in the blink of the eye. Your probability means nothing.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Thanks.
.
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Tweed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-03-04 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Truth is all
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