BOOKMARK THIS: KERRY 53%, BUSH 46% , OTHER 1

[TruthIsAll]

Bush has hit a brick wall. He can't bust through 46%.

Kerry is leading 48.8% - 44.6% right now.

That's 93.4% total, leaving undecided/other 6.6%

Give Kerry 4.2, Bush 1.4 and leave 1.0 to Other.

So my best forecast is: Kerry 53, Bush 46, Other 1.

Kerry will win it by over 8 million votes, and 360-370 EV's.

I will track it for all you DUers almost every day.

10 -POLL AVERAGE: 
IBD,ABC, NWK, ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME				

Month Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	
July	48.80	44.60	4.20

											
AVG	47.76	44.75	3.01	

[trumad]

1. You're right..Bush shot his wad.

[benburch]

4. Ewww.

I could have done without that image.

[skip fox]

8. Shooting one's wad comes from dicing slang, not sexual.

(Wad of bills.)

[papau]

13. The wad is the cotton used to fire the gun - but today it is sexual -IMHO

:-)

[phillybri]

2. Great work!

:kick:

[benburch]

I'm betting...

Bush will lost some base to other... Specifically the Libertarians, before the election.

[Old and In the Way]

16. I'm thinking you might be right.

If the base thinks that Bush has lost, they'll either decide to vote their ideological preference or not vote at all. I think the base (35% or so of voters) will hang with Bush no matter what....but the rest are not nearly as committed to Bush as the Republicans would like us to believe. The actual voter who claims he will vote for Bush in the polls might change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth.

[DaveFL99]

23. That's what I was hoping to see after the convention

The convention was supposed to introduce Kerry to the country and dispel the negatives that Bush's spin attached to Kerry but it hasn't worked.

I can't believe that 46% of the population can support Bush when they've seen Kerry so I think we need to show them more of Bush. I can believe that Americans are uninformed but can 46% really be in favor of Bush's actions.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

25. Don't forget that these polls are usually created by talking to the...

..."most likely voters", or "registered voters". IMHO, that means that we're seeing the most likely BASE voters of each party. They are not talking to folks that usually don't vote or who are not yet registered.

[GainesT1958]

3. Yours sounds about right...

Though I think Kerry could get as high as 56%.:D

B-)

[whistle]

5. Great, can you also give links to these polls if open to public...

:bounce:

[Reciprocity]

14. I'm a member of Zogby.

Welcome to Zogby Interactive's
Online Polling Registration Page!

http://interactive.zogby.com/pollregistration/registration/

[Zynx]

6. On average Bush's numbers are low.

Gallup has him at the highest, Newsweek at the lowest. Average them out he is at 44-46%. That's not good for him.

[fob]

7. TIA, can you interject a 5, 10 and 15 % bounce for the weeks (week

before, week during, week after) the RNC for bush*? I would be interested what the numbers show, at what size bounce does it knot back up?

[RummyTheDummy]

12. Sitting presidents don't usually get bounces from their conventions

I would think Bush, as unpopular as he is, won't get anything at all. I'm hoping he actually loses ground, but the media would never spin it that way.

[fob]

21. Oh, I didn't mean to imply he would get a bounce from the convention,

but there will be one reported by the mediawhores, and as such a forward-thinking look at the polls would be interesting.

[TruthIsAll]

22. Bush will get ZERO bounce.

Undecideds won't want him. Well, maybe 30% will. Kerry will get the rest.

Nader will lose his kids to Kerry.

Dems who are now for Kerry sure won't switch to Bush.

Where will Bush get his bounce? Who will he inspire?

Bush has shot his wad.

If anything, he will drift slowly, inexorably DOWN.

[Reciprocity]

27. "Where will Bush get his bounce? Who will he inspire?"TruthIsAll

No one in the media has addressed this issue. The debacle in Florida with the election has solidified the base like nothing else could there. Unemployment in key states does not bode well for Bush with outsourcing its twin issue. The war debacle has done the same thing especially women and young people. Look at what Dean did on this subject. Then there is stem cell research. This crosses ALL boundaries. So where can Bush pickup voters?

Oops how could I forget the Nader vote.

[Journeyman]

9. Thanks, TruthIsAll. . .

we need more voices of reasoned analysis like yours to offset the occasionally shrill clamor that infects this board.

[skip fox]

10. This is fine and useful work. I agree that links

(easy to batch at end) would make you extremely useful service even more so, and it would make DUers more confident of the information (and confidence will come in handy in the days ahead).

[TruthIsAll]

17. Go here for links and detailed analysis.

I get my national poll data from:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm

I get my state data from:
http://www.electoral-vote.com

The data is downloaed into my forecast/simulation model:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2136950

[chiburb]

11. But, but this CAN'T be right!

Because I read other threads in GD that said the Dems BLEW IT by acting like Republicans at their convention. That there could've been a 25 point bounce, but the Dems were too busy playing nice! That the Dems LIED to the people, and that Bush would be toast if Kerry, et al, had just told the TRUTH!!!!

I think your numbers are made up, just to make a minute subset of radical DUers look bad.

[RummyTheDummy]

15. Yeah I saw those posts too

The sky is falling!!!! The sky is falling!!!!!!!

[jjmalonejr]

19. We're dooooooomed! Doooooomed I tells ya!

Why did we pick a Skull and Bones, PNAC, Republican-lite DINO like Kerry!

<<sarcasm off>>

[Must_B_Free]

18. And the swing is tired of Bushlies

[rocktivity]

20. Why do you prefer these particular polls over others?

:headbang:
rocknation

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. He's using a poll average of IBD,ABC, NWK, ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME.

[Zynx]

26. Yeah. That's pretty much all of them except for Gallup and Faux.

[TruthIsAll]

28. Here is why I exclude CNN, AP, FOX...

They are consistently biased for Bush. The numbers prove it.
Why should I let the outliars in the group?


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