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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:09 PM Original message |
Newsweek 7/30 poll (after Kerry speech): a 57%-43% Kerry landslide? |
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bluestateguy (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:11 PM Response to Original message |
1. Nobody will win the election by that much |
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yardwork (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:12 PM Response to Reply #1 |
3. The Republicans will get a big bounce after their Convention, too. |
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Eric J in MN (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:12 PM Response to Original message |
2. We need to keep it going. |
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burythehatchet (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:14 PM Response to Original message |
4. I'm not a statistician (although I like to read actuarial reports) |
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CaTeacher (983 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:15 PM Response to Reply #4 |
5. YES!!! |
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papau (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:25 PM Response to Reply #4 |
9. "like to read actuarial reports" - get to a Doctor immediately! :-) |
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burythehatchet (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:31 PM Response to Reply #9 |
15. A former passing interest and required understanding of |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:43 PM Response to Reply #15 |
16. Here is my Monte Carlo simulation of the election |
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papau (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:50 PM Response to Reply #16 |
17. What software did you use to do the simulation? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:59 PM Response to Reply #17 |
18. I used basic Excel: Cum. Normal distribution and Randon number generator. |
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burythehatchet (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 07:32 PM Response to Reply #16 |
28. Thanks. I'll repeat some conventional wisdom |
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Toots (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:17 PM Response to Original message |
6. In 1980 after listening to Reagan I said to myself that he was |
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yardwork (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:17 PM Response to Original message |
7. The problem is still older white rural and suburban men |
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blm (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:30 PM Response to Reply #7 |
14. Wait till they find out Bush went AWOL. It WILL all come out |
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Cat Atomic (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:23 PM Response to Original message |
8. How much did Reagan win by in his "landslide", anyway? |
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burythehatchet (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:25 PM Response to Reply #8 |
10. Reagan won 49 states |
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yardwork (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:27 PM Response to Reply #10 |
12. True, but Reagan didn't win by a huge popular vote margin |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:29 PM Response to Reply #10 |
13. Not vs. Carter in 1980; he won 49 states vs.. Mondale in 1984 |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 04:25 PM Response to Original message |
11. My 7/30 forecast model does NOT include the Newsweek numbers |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:01 PM Response to Original message |
19. In the end, Kerry will win 53-45 or maybe 52-46 and crush Bush. |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:04 PM Response to Reply #19 |
20. I agree with your numbers. I say it will be 54-45-1. |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 07:35 PM Response to Reply #20 |
29. That could be too, though maybe eight points instead of nine. |
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dumpster_baby (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:33 PM Response to Original message |
21. white males 30-49 are GOP base, esp. in the South |
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ronnykmarshall (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:35 PM Response to Original message |
22. WOW! |
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NYCGirl (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:45 PM Response to Original message |
23. Don't get too drunk on the numbers just now... |
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fujiyama (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:53 PM Response to Reply #23 |
24. Polls are great when your up |
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abrownz (32 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:55 PM Response to Original message |
25. WOOT WOOT n/t |
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fujiyama (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 05:55 PM Response to Original message |
26. Did you ever assume a situation |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 06:29 PM Response to Reply #26 |
27. Yes. Kerry still wins. If he's ahead 50-40, a 50/50 split makes it 55-45 |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 07:39 PM Response to Reply #26 |
30. 70% of undecideds polled in an NBC/WSJ poll disapproved of Bush |
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buycitgo (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 07:52 PM Response to Reply #30 |
31. mcgovern got the lowest undecideds since truman, right? |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 08:47 PM Original message |
Here is sensitivity analysis from the model (see link) |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-31-04 08:47 PM Response to Reply #31 |
32. Here is sensitivity analysis from the model (see link) |
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TruthIsAll (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Aug-01-04 09:27 AM Response to Original message |
33. The media whores are minimizing the Kerry bounce. |
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