How Many Of You Doubt The 60/40 Prediction Now?

[ThomWV]

The Democratic Party is waking up, thousands are in the streets, most cheering Kerry, many booing Bush (from 'free speech zones'). Across the country young people who have never voted before are registering and ready to turn out in force. Parents know the only way their family can be safe is to oust the war-monger, our seniors despise the despot in Washington.

In the spring I said it would go 60/40 no matter who the Democratic candidate was and people laughed at me. By early summer my 60/40 prediction brought scowls from those who said it would be too close to call. And now, in the heat of summer, what say you?

[clydefrand]

1. I say you're right on

And I'm going to vote maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaany times for him! :bounce: Can't wait.

[RodneyCK2]

2. I still say it will be a very close race...

one night spent peering out from under my pillow to check the latest voting results. I fear a martini (or two) and a obnoxious clown horn to blow when the red states are declared will be in order.

I follow this site closely, other DU-oers have posted it.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[jimshoes]

3. Even if every repub voted twice

Kerry would still win in a landslide. That's the vibe I'm getting.

[pocket]

29. I concur

it will be very, very close.

Then again, I thought Gore would win by a landslide, so what the hell do I know.

[alfredo]

4. I hope you are right. I challenge you and all others at DU

to get out on the streets and make it happen.

Volunteer, get involved.

Just do it.

In Central Ky report for duty at

Fayette County Democratic Party
431 So Broadway
Lexington Ky. 40508

1-859-268-4448

We need precinct walkers, and others willing to do the grunt work.

[ThomWV]

9. I Carry Voter Registration Forms In My Truck

So far I have signed up three young men and convinced them to cast their first vote for John Kerry. I mailed in the registration forms myself and I have a standing 'date' with these three young guys to haul their sorry asses to the polling place myself. It took almost 2 hours for me to get through to one of them (I have known all three of these guys since they were children, and friends of my son) but it paid off in spades, he now understands that his future is what is at stake here. By the way, each of the three is a late-20's construction worker, two are black, one is white.

I know its not much, but I'm trying to do my part.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

12. Where do you get the forms? n/t

[Wwagsthedog]

17. Are you from TX?

If so, go to or call the county elections administrator. They will give/send you form(s). After all, in TX, what will they be worried about v/v your party affiliation because you probably live in a heavily gerrymandered area.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

20. Yes, TX. I'll do this. I think my county is like 90% Repub with all

elected officials (every last judge etc.) being Repubs.

I am also wondering if there is anything meaningful I can do with respect to states more likely to go Dem like FLA or OH, or VA, TN... Phone calls? Anything?

[anarchy1999]

24. Mayberry, here's the info for you if you are in Dallas County........

Bruce Sherbert, Elections Administrator
Elections Department
2377 N. Stemmons Frwy. Suite 820
Dallas, Tx 75207
214-819-6335

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

26. It would be the same voter reg. form for Collin County? TX specific? n/t

[Jazzgirl]

27. Mayberry, you can also get them at any library.

All the libraries have the forms available as well.

Jazzgirl

[ThomWV]

19. From The Union Steward

I am a union member and our Union President had a stack of them in case any members needed one. I got a stack from him. There are on-line sites where you can down load and print a form to do it and also a booklet that tells you where to mail the completed form. The one's I have are West Virginia specific and they have to be signed to be valid (which is why you can not register on line in WV) so I have taken the ones the boys filled out for me, I fill in the address at home, and I have mailed the forms for them.

[alfredo]

23. Good for you.

Every vote counts. I've registered several dozen. I've lost count. We have a lot of people out doing the registration drives. Some of our Dem organization take off their buttons and pins and work with non partisan voter registration groups. It does everyone good if more take part in our democracy.

[wish_I_could_vote]

5. I agree it will be a blow out

and I said so on a very conservative board right after Edwards joined the ticket. I know I am going to have to eat shit and die publicly if I am wrong, but I am more convinced each day that I am not.

[Cleita]

6. I did my first precinct walk this morning with another woman. We were only

talking to Democrats, but some people who were out working on their yards came over and asked us for information, saying they were Republicans but they weren't voting for Bush and hadn't made up their minds to vote for Kerry. The women were easier to convince because of the women's issues. Some of the men also were concerned because of a possible draft and they had children of draftable age.

We ran into one rude freeper only, and we wished him a nice day and walked away.

[BillZBubb]

7. I doubt it still

I think there are about 45% of the country who are beyond hope. They'll support the Chimperor to the bitter end. Another 1-2% will vote for a third party candidate--I don't get it, but they will.

That leaves Kerry with at best 54% to Bush*s 45%. I think it will be closer than that. I love a landslide, but I'll be really happy with 50% + 1 and over 271 electoral votes.

[GoneOffShore]

8. And we've got to win back the Congress

at least one house, preferably the Senate and strengthen the House. I'd like to see both Houses Democratic, but that might not be a good thing(Though I'm not sure why it wouldn't).
Of course if we win the White House and the Senate, with a good majority, maybe we will see * & co in chains. (It's my fondest wish, other than hearing the headline 'Santorum Caught in Mens Room With 16 Year Old Male - Details at 11.'
:evilgrin:

[tabasco]

10. I live in a pretty solid repug area.

Now that the campaign is in full-swing, I'm wondering "where are all the Bush bumper stickers and stuff?" I'm thinking the repugs have more fun when there is a Democrat in office to bash, rather than seeing their own guy screw the pooch.

[President Jesus]

11. popular, yes. Electoral, not so sure.

Kerry is going to win the populous states 70/30 easily.

It;s the battleground states we all need to keep our eyes on.

I have very little doubt this will be a popular landslide, but that still may only translate to slight electoral edge. That would suck, because then the Republicans could still claim that the election was not a mandate, and we'll have 4 more years of polarization.

[UdoKier]

13. I'm cautiously optimistic, but...

Did you predict Shrubya's takeover?


Our massive losses in 2002?

Did you predict Clinton's win in '92?

How is your record of prediction?

[clydefrand]

16. I knew in my gut and my head

that Clinton would win both times. And I was very optimistic that Gore would win and in the popular vote he did. And he probably won in FL if the truth be known and so many people had not been prevented from voting.

[ThomWV]

21. 2:1

I got Clinton right both times, but I missed the boat with Gore. I thought Gore would take it by a couple of points.

So I guess my batting average is .666 Ominous

[billyskank]

33. No it's nearer .667

not so ominous. :)

[NightOwwl]

14. I know a lot of Republicans who think Bush

has really screwed things up. These people probably won't vote for Kerry, but they aren't going to vote for Bush, either. Stay-at-homes will help us out.

[Generator]

15. Damn, this is what I woke up thinking about this morning

that and how much kleenex I need. A cold-and a lot of weeping during the convention will do that to you.

It's gotta be in the 60's dammit! I just don't think we deserve less. He deserves nothing, but I'll settle for 60's.

On the other hand, my chickens aren't counted yet, but as Michael Moore said last night, the polls aren't counting all those people that haven't voted before or are voting again just because of the danger of Shrub. It's not anger only, it's self-preservation!

[clydefrand]

18. Weeping? Is that why you're called

Generator? ;-) :bounce:

[wuushew]

22. No way 2.5-5% margin of victory at best

Bush is the incumbent which gives him an automatic 20% free, plus the biggest things to criticize on(aka war) were done early in his administration. As a rule it is always easier to criticize policy before it is implemented than after, otherwise the protestion against Iraq and the Patriot Act in 2004 would be just as large or larger than in 2002-2003.

Also I predict that turnout will be slightly lower than in 2000, as is the case in most re-election years. The popular vote being slightly depressed will favor evangelical nutballs and rich types that vote in high percentages. Diebold and voter purges will take a further toll of the Democratic vote. In the Electoral College the score will be anywere from 260-310.

[ThomWV]

25. I think you are absolutly wrong

I predict that this years election will have the highest voter turnout in the last 100 years.

[wish_I_could_vote]

31. I completely agree

look for a massive turn out

[KharmaTrain]

28. Our Pennsylvanian House Guest

Fortunately she's an old friend who would rather eat nails than vote Repugnican, but her hubby was another story. Money, status, sell-out...voted Bunnypants in 2000. Now won't vote Kerry, just won't vote. Fine with us, and she says she still is working on him (a little no-nookie for the week before the election may help :evil grin:)

I see a great difference developing here. When she spoke with her daughter this afternoon, she had just returned from the Kerry/Edwards rally and said there were thousands hanging from everywhere and anywhere. People were on balconies, rooftops...even climbed trees to get a glimpse of this developing political moment. This is what they did in the "good old days"...and I hope these two remain on the road and barnstorm in as many small and medium towns in Ohio (and I know there are a ton of 'em), Pennsylvania, Missouri & even into the south.

What a contrast to Bunnypants whose events are tightly controlled...everyone has a "ticket" and the venues are small. You rarely see his assholiness shaking people's hands or even talking to the hired hands who come to see him. The other day, C-SPAN showed his rally in Springfield, Mo. Bunnypants came in quickly, gave the speech and left. The only concept that this was a "personal apperance" was the gratuitous local pothole joke (no I didn't hear that one, but he came up with some other lame one).

If there's one thing that's certain in American politics, people like being part of an "event". Be it TR during his Bull Moose campaign, FDR and Truman whistle-stopping or the "Raygun" Revolution. We've definitely gotten this campaign off on the right foot, now let these feet grow louder and in number. It can and will happen.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

32. The difference is, shrubya is not really a true politician, in the way

that Clinton or Reagan or JFK were. Those kind of politicians have a good intuitive feel for people, like them, and seek out crowds and do well with crowds.

Shrubya is entirely a manufactured product of Roveco and the RNC. Even if he had any tiny spark of real people skills, they wouldn't trust him off their micromanaged path. He's not going to shake any hands or kiss any babies that haven't been prescreened and in fact planted there for him to do that.

For all the ragging on of Kerry being stiff or whatever, it's more and more clear that he kicks shrubya's ARSE in the real political skilz department.

[KharmaTrain]

35. It's The Differences In Parties...

If you follow the entire GOOP nominating process in '99, you could see how rigged their selection process was. Bunnypants didn't win the nomination as much as he didn't lose it. The AEI, Heritage Institute and others had already decided that they were going to "win" the election at any cost and that meant in every way.

Bunnypants was supposed to be Ragyun II...totally controllable, a good-ole boy that you want to have a beer with (and, I've heard this used as a marketing/research measure) and the "anti-Clinton". The image was crafted well, except when Bunnypants opens his mouth. The strategy there is keep him extremely limited and scripted and have a powerful media machine in place to attack any attacks...rapidly, ruthlessly and relentlessly. Over the years, this tactic has become excepted...especially by the media.

Threats to cut off access (there goes my Pulitzer & better job & A list position on the party circuit), intimidation campaigns among other journalists (divide & conquer) and tons and tons of cash makes substance in a figure head unnecessary and anything more than a figurehead a threat.

[TexasSissy]

30. I am a doubting Thomas. I go strictly by the numbers....

and they don't say that. I would wish it would be so, but I don't want to get my hopes up. So far the numbers say it'll be close. A lot can happen between now and Nov. 2nd. We're in a bounce right now because of the Dem. Convention. I think we have a really good shot at winning, and the odds are on us. But I cannot bring myself to think we'd win by more than a hair, unless I see some numbers lasting longer than a week on that.

But I HOPE you're right! Wouldn't that be just grand? Pfffft to Bush!

[kaitykaity]

34. Voting Machines, Voting Machines, Voting Machines.

That's what I say.

What about the electronic black box "let's steal some more
elections" voting machines?


I'm with you on the texture and character of the upcoming
race. I don't think Bush has anybody except his hard-core,
brain-dead base, but you never know with those freaking people.

[mbee]

36. His own party will do him in so Kerry may do even better than

that. Many Republicans are going to vote for Kerry because
they know they've been had! Others will just stay home. I have personally overhead 2 Republicans say they will probably decide not to vote this time.