7/30 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.13% VOTE: 52.74% EV: 323

[TruthIsAll]

								
NATIONAL PROJECTION / ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
Kerry:	52.74							
Bush:	47.26							
Spread:	5.47							
								
Kerry:	96.13%	probability 	
				
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL				
16-Polls	Latest%	Proj%		
Kerry:	48.06	52.92		
Bush:	45.00	47.08		
Spread:	3.06	5.84		
				
Kerry:	95.46%	probability > 50% of vote.		
				
				
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL				
Forecast  vote % EV				
Kerry:	52.56	323		
Bush:	47.44	215		
Spread:	5.11	107		
						
Kerry wins:	968	of 1000 simulation trial runs, 				
for a	96.8%	probability of winning the election.				
						
						
						
						
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.63%	of the vote.				
Wins:	88.8%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	306	electoral votes.	
Max:	386	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.56%	of the vote.	
Wins:	96.8%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	323	electoral votes.	
Max:	411	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
				
Kerry:	53.48%	of the vote.		
Wins:	99.6%	of the trials. 		
Avg:	340	electoral votes.		
Max:	434	electoral votes.		
				
				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.75	52.6%		
Rep	125.03	47.4%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.20	48	47	49	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY						
						
The data source is PollingReport.com    						
Monthly polling data from: 						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
						
Kerry projection is based on current average of ten
polls						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
						
						
	10 Poll Avg Trend			Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.5	50.2	-11.5	46.5	53.5	-7.0
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.1	44.4	3.8	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6							
May	47.1	44.2	2.9	53.2	46.8	6.4							
June	47.1	45.0	2.1	52.6	47.4	5.3							
July	48.9	44.7	4.2	53.4	46.6	6.8							
													
													
Kerry National Poll Projection (10 polls):													
Poll avg: 	48.9												
+ alloc:	4.5												
Projection:	53.4												
													
													
													
KERRY NATIONAL POLL WIN PROBABILITY													
													
-------	Actual	Actual	Kerry%	    Kerry undecided/other 	
-------	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%		
										
TIME	50.0	45.0	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5		
FOX	45.0	44.0	50.6	50.5	51.6	52.7	53.8	54.9		
CNN	49.0	47.0	51.0	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.2	52.6		
LAT	48.0	46.0	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4		
PEW	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0		
										
IBD	44.0	41.0	51.8	51.5	53.0	54.5	56.0	57.5		
CBS	49.0	44.0	52.7	52.5	53.2	53.9	54.6	55.3		
DEMC	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7		
WP	48.0	49.0	49.5	49.5	49.8	50.1	50.4	50.7		
NWK	51.0	45.0	53.1	53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2	54.6		
										
ZOGBY	48.0	43.0	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1		
AP	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4		
NBC1	54.0	43.0	55.7	55.5	55.8	56.1	56.4	56.7		
NBC2	45.0	47.0	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2		
ARG	49.0	45.0	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4		
QPAC	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9		
										
Mean	48.06	45.00	51.63	51.53	52.23	52.92	53.61	54.31		
Std	2.73	2.12	1.84	1.76	1.71	1.73	1.80	1.94		
Stdm	0.68	0.53	0.46	0.44	0.43	0.43	0.45	0.49		
										
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):										
Upper	53.41	49.16	55.24	54.99	55.58	56.30	57.15	58.11		
Lower	42.72	40.84	48.02	48.08	48.87	49.54	50.08	50.50		
X	49.16	49.16	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00		
Prob >
x	34.39%	2.50%	81.20%	80.74%	90.32%	95.46%	97.73%	98.68%		
										
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):										
									
95% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.40	46.04							
Lower	46.73	43.96							
x	46.04	46.04							
Prob > x	99.85%	2.50%							
									
Probability:									
95.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
99.85%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
2.50%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
99% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.82	46.37							
Lower	46.30	43.63							
x	46.37	46.37							
Prob > x	99.35%	0.49%							
									
Probability:									
99.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
99.35%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
0.49%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
									
Notes:									
Std = Standard Deviation (variability)									
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 									
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4									
									
95% Confidence Limits formula:									
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96 * Stdm								
								
99% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58 * Stdm								
								
Notes:								
NBC1 - Princeton Associates								
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal								
CNN - Gallup								
WP - ABC								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

National voting percent is determined by accumulating each
state's proportional share of the national vote in the last 3
elections.								

Kerry's projected state vote equals the latest state poll plus
his projected share of undecided/other voters.					

Kerry's probability of winning a state is based on his
projected vote.					



Most Likely Case					
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry					
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV		
Kerry	96.8%	52.6%	323		
Bush	3.2%	47.4%	215		

Historical Vote, Kerry Projection and Win Probability 					
Dem% is Democratic % of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.					
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000									
-------	Hist	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.56%	96.8%	347	337	344	353	317	367	317	341	298	376
													
AL	44.8	41.0	1.2										
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	
AR	55.2	50.6	56.0			6	6		6	6		6	6
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1					9			9		9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	50.1	51.0		27	27	27	27	27				27
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1				15		15				
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3						11				
													
IA	51.8	51.6	65.5	7	7		7		7	7	7		7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1					8				8	8
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4		4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.7	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	55.1	89.9	17	17	17	17		17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	51.2	61.8		10	10		10	10	10	10	10	
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8			11				11	11		
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6							3			
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.9	68.3	5	5		5	5	5			5	5
NH	51.7	54.7	88.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	53.9	83.5	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	56.2	93.9	5			5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6					15					15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	50.5	55.0	20	20	20	20			20	20		20
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	55.5	91.5	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	84.7	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6	8					8	8			
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7						3		3		3
TN	50.5	51.8	67.4	11	11		11				11	11	11
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2	34									
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4			13		13	13		13		13
WA	55.9	54.8	88.5	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	53.3	79.5	5	5	5	5		5	5		5	5
WI	52.7	52.8	75.8	10	10	10	10	10	10		10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.56%	96.8%	347	337	344	353	317	367	317	341	298	376
													

[gasperc]

1. only 35% chance for VA?

I think it is way more play than that.

and WI and MN are tougher than the 75% predicted but I'm working like we are 10 points down no matter what this shit shows

[mrboba1]

2. kick it!

:kick:

[Wednesdays]

3. The way things are shaping up...

Is that in order to win the election, * must win ALL of the following states: Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. If he loses any ONE of them, it's over.

Things are looking bad for the Repugs.

[TruthIsAll]

4. ZOGBY on undecideds

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[TruthIsAll]

5. Why the simulation approach is more consistent...

Look at the first 10 trial runs out of the 1000. Notice that in FL, Kerry wins some as does Bush, even though I project Kerry with slightly more than 50%.

Other predictors would show either Bush or Kerry as the winner in any given state, without taking probabilities into account. The result is highly volatile fluctuations in EV. I believe this is misleading and hides the true trend.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kick

tia