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Kerry opens lead in Florida poll 49-44

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59millionmorons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:43 PM
Original message
Kerry opens lead in Florida poll 49-44
(KRT) - Powered by a clear shift among independent voters, Democratic candidate John Kerry has taken a slight lead in the presidential race in Florida just before his party's national convention, according to a statewide poll conducted for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union.

Kerry gained ground in the nation's largest swing state, apparently bolstered by his selection of running mate John Edwards and helped by a gradual erosion of support for President Bush. The results also indicated that Vice President Dick Cheney has become a drag on the Republican ticket, weighed down by his high "unfavorable" rating.

The poll of 600 likely Florida voters, conducted by the independent polling firm Research 2000, found Kerry leading Bush 49 percent to 44 percent in a two-way matchup.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packa...
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
1. be cool mah babies!
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tedoll78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #1
16. Hey..
was that meant to be done in a Conan voice? :)
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Yes! Finally someone gets it!

So be cool mah babies!
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:45 PM
Response to Original message
2. This is without Nader.
So the likely result then is -3 or -4 Kerry.
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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I would think Floridian Anti-Bush voters would be about the LEAST
likely to look at Nader this time around, with a lot of Repentant Nader Voters from last time (like Michael Moore).
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Hopefully, they wont end up voting for Buchanan either.
ala Butterfly ballots
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Kurt Remarque Donating Member (709 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. there are thousands of likely voters who got butterflied
the gop has to supress the vote somewhere else to control for these people. VNS was correct in it's giving florida to gore, for whom these folks thought they voted
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. They really wanted us to believe...
That heavily Jewish communities voted Buchanan more than anywhere else.


Jews for Buchanan!

That just don't sound right.
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Yeah but. Even when you get a Nader number you have to discount..
half of that. So, if he polls 4%, cut that in half and give that half to Kerry.
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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. How did Nader poll, compared to the actual percent of votes he got,
during the campaign in 2000?
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scarletwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
19. Is Nader on the ballot in Florida?
If he's not going to be on the Florida ballot, there'd be no point in including him in a state poll.

sw
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:31 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Hes still trying to get on, the GOP is helping.
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flordehinojos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
7. Jeb must be having a bad day!
Jeb must be having a bad day! That should put us all on notice that he is going to try his darndest dirtiest not to let Kerry take the prize here in Florida. }(
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leftist. Donating Member (740 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:12 PM
Original message
Hopefully it will be wearing less makeup this time around (n/t)
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:10 PM
Response to Original message
9. And the beat goes on, yeah, the beat goes on
bush is cruisin' for a bruisin'

:smoke:
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onethatcares Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:12 PM
Response to Original message
10. my conversations with folks that live in
"trailer parks" or "mobile home parks", usually 55 and above in age, won't vote for * if he was giving away plastic turkeys in Iraq on Thanksgiving and then serving the playdoh cranberry sauce. They are pissed. They don't care about Nader, they plan to vote Kerry as an ABB candidate. I bring the subject up time after time. No one wants to hear "four more years" of this shit. His bro is the next one outa office. He's already padding his resume. Watch out for him in 08.
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Blue-Jay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
11. "600 likely voters"...hmm.
Is that about normal for polls such as this? I'd be happier with a larger sampling and with Nader included. (or maybe I wouldn't be happier)

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happynewyear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. you are correct of course
very small sample size - can't be considered credible IMO.

:dem: :kick:
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. that's normal for a state poll
national polls usually have about 1000. of course we can't judge the quality of the sample without more info, but it isn't too small
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yardwork Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:19 PM
Response to Original message
13. Jeb's got a lot of fwork to do.
There are polling places to be closed, voters to be purged, intimidators to be trained, and ballots to be lost. Oh yes, and absentee ballots to be "corrected."
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levdog Donating Member (12 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
14. if they let blacks actually vote
Edited on Sun Jul-25-04 08:22 PM by levdog
this time, the state is ours.

i think florida is the only state that blocks felons from voting at the booth.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
20. LIKELY voters 49-44. Which means it's more like 52-42.
Likely voters ALWAYS skews GOP. They automatically eliminate any new voter or sporadic voter, thereby eliminating all those newly activating AGAINST Bush.
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