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Kerry! National Poll (16) model: 52.93%; State Poll EV Model: 53.16%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 03:32 PM
Original message
Kerry! National Poll (16) model: 52.93%; State Poll EV Model: 53.16%
Edited on Sun Jul-25-04 03:44 PM by TruthIsAll
These two independent models are so close in the Kerry projections its downright scary.

They are two completely different modeling approaches. What they have in common is only the assumption that 70% of undecided/other voters go to Kerry.

And, of course, we assume a fair election.

Kerry Vote % Projection:
National Model (16 polls): 52.93%
State EV Simulation Model: 53.16%

Kerry Win Probability:
National Model (16 polls): 96.9%
State EV Simulation Model: 97.4%

National Projection Model
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

State EV Simulation Model
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The National model uses the latest results for 16 polls. For each of the polls, Kerry's current vote % is used as the basis for the projection. The projection vote % is calculated by adding 70% of the undecided/other vote to his current poll number. The average of the 16 projections is input to the Normal distribution function to derive the probability that Kerry will get at least 50% of the vote.

The EV simulation model is analogous to the National model, except that individual State polls are used as the basis for the projection. Each of the 51 states, each weighted by its total voting share over the last 3 elections, is projected the same way: by adding the 70% undecided allocation factor. A 1000 trial Monte Carlo simulation is executed to determine the probability of Kerry getting at least 270 electoral votes.

The fact that the vote % projections are within .23% of each other, and the win probabilities within 0.5%, suggests independent confirmation of each to a remarkable degree.


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leftist. Donating Member (740 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. TIA, I love your posts, thx for the data! (n/t)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. And Kerry is leading this NBC online poll with...... 53%
Edited on Sun Jul-25-04 04:09 PM by TruthIsAll
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SalParadise Donating Member (244 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
3. POLLS, POLLS, POLLS - Screw the polls!
We've got to approach this election like we're behind 30%.

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tcfrogs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
4. A question
and please forgive me if you've been asked this before during your periodic poll updates.

On what do you base the assumption of 70% for Kerry among undecided/others?
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Zidane Donating Member (134 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. My same question
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tcfrogs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Thanks
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. The Incumbent Rule
Edited on Sun Jul-25-04 04:52 PM by TruthIsAll
I have to look for some other links on this, but this should help for now...

http://www.goringe.net/tis/archives/001090.html


The Incumbent Rule
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

How will undecideds vote on election day? Traditionally, there have been two schools of thought about how undecideds in trial heat match-ups will divide up at the ballot box. One is that they will break equally; the other, that they will split in proportion to poll respondents who stated a candidate preference.

But our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent, the traditional answers are wrong. Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.

The 155 polls we collected and analyzed were the final polls conducted in each particular race; most were completed within two weeks of election day. They cover both general and primary elections, and Democratic and Republican incumbents. They are predominantly from statewide races, with a few U.S. House, mayoral and countywide contests thrown in. Most are from the 1986 and 1988 elections, although a few stretch back to the 1970s.

The polls we studied included our own surveys, polls provided to us directly by CBS, Gallup, Gordon S. Black Corp., Market Opinion Research, Tarrance Associates, and Mason-Dixon Opinion Research, as well as polls that appeared in The Polling Report.

In 127 cases out of 155, most or all of the undecideds went for the challenger:


DISPOSITION OF UNDECIDED VOTERS
.

Most to challenger 127
Split equally 9
Most to incumbent 19



more...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 08:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. confirmed kick 53% 53% 97% 97%
tia
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