"Bush Holds Slight Lead in Electoral Votes " ???

[soggy]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=3&u=/ap/20040724/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_road_to270_1

I don't think I've ever complained of news bias before... but these numbers look kind of enron-y to me... who's Ron Fournier? With Kerry leading 48-38, Pennsylvania's still a tossup? What does he consider "leaning"... a 20% margin?

[wtmusic]

1. Very Enronesque

AP's bias is showing (shhhhh)

[warrior1]

2. Not even close

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[mermaid]

3. What A Load Of Crap!!

I gotta ask what this guy is smoking, and may I have some, please??

http://www.electoral-vote.com /

and, for a slightly less optimistic (from OUR point of view...)

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Note the second projection actually shows Kerry even further ahead than the first projection, and this is CLEARLY a site written by a bush Cheerleader. I say it is slightly less optimistic for our side because of the article right there "Twenty-One Reasons Why Bush Will Win."

BUT...
The first projection shows Kerry currently carrying 310 Electoral Votes, the second (more biased for Bush) projection shows Kerry carrying 327 Electoral Votes (note, too that the first projection was updated TODAY with new polling info, whereas the second appears to get updated weekly.)

Notice in the fist poll that OH flipped our way, but Florida flipped back Bush's way...and NV flipped our way.

[depakid]

4. Battling polls

We're going to see a lot more of this type of reporting- over the past 2 decades, polls have increasingly been used as persuasive devises as opposed to being tools to accurately guage public opinion. Obviously, if the Republicans have proven anything- it's that their followers have no scruples whatsoever. Nothing that they say or claim surprises me anymore. And since the corporate media isn't interested in issues- and since it literally PAYS for them to report "close" horserace like numbers (to increase their advertising revenues- you'll have to look very carefully at things to get any sort of reasonable interpretation of what's actually going on.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Boh Sides Use Polls To Shape The Perception Of The Campaign....

We need to fight back...

[NWHarkness]

5. It's garbage

They call every state where any poll shows Bush with even a slight lead as in his column, and even states where Kerry has led for moths as toss ups.

[wicket]

6. What a bullshit headline!!!

There are so many states not included in that number!

[RoyGBiv]

8. This is garbage...

Even Republican leaning sites like this one Here don't give Bush a lead.

What some people do is only count those states with a greater than 10% margin in the current polls in their initial calculations. Because of the Plains states, much of the South, and Texas this will always lead to a Bush lead. After that, they pick and choose those that they include based on whatever polls best represents the view they want to present. The problem is with their definitions and wether they base them on numbers or precentages. Percentage-wise, California is a closer race than Pennsylvania, but in terms of actual likely votes, California is much more solidly Kerry than PA. Although, the tide in PA appears to be shifting.

Current full-scale projections such as this one have Kerry with a substantial lead, and that's even with Florida in Bush's column.

[soggy]

13. I would consider AP to be very reputable...

but this article is shameless horseshit... the more I looked at it, the more ridiculous it appears. he must be using polling data from like, May '03. Disgusting...

[West Coast Democrat]

9. New Yahoo Headline Story "Polls: Kerry Leads Bush in Pa. and Ore."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=18&u=/ap/20040724/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_polls

The lame Ron Fournier story is gone from the front page.

[TriMetFan]

15. Shoot here in Oregon

I see Kerry stickers to Bush/Monkey 20 to 1. Yes some parts of my state you will see a few more Bush then Kerry, but it is so so nice when some one honks and waves cause of my anti-Bush stickerys on my car. I have aslo been saying this is Kerry Country. He will win here.

[progressivebydesign]

18. In washington state, even in my not-so-liberal area..

..kerry stickers are 2 to 1. As are generic liberal stickers. No worries here!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

22. I'm in Washington State also

We haven't gone Republican since 1984. In the year 2000 we were riding the crest of the high tech wave. Today we have one of the worst unemployment rates in the country. Yet this article says Washinton only leans towards Kerry.

[Huxley]

10. This site is updated daily

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[newyawker99]

20. Hi Huxley!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[flordehinojos]

11. Although Fournier's article identifies FLORIDA as one of the toss upstates

Fournier and others may be counting JEB's STEAL-THE-FLORIDA-27-ELECTORAL-VOTES- in Bush' column...and in even when some other articles say that Kerry is ahead of Bush in Florida IT WILL TAKE A MIRACLE FOR OUR VOTES TO REGISTER IN THE WAY THAT THEY WERE/ARE/WILL BE CAST HERE IN FLORIDA.
x(

[kaitykaity]

12. I guess they thought if they had a pro-Kerry headline

they had to have a pro-Bush headline for balance.

:shrug:

[lancdem]

14. These numbers are dated

Kerry has nice leads in Pennsylvania and Oregon and the most recent poll has him ahead in Nevada. He's also ahead in Iowa.

This is a good Web site: http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[lancdem]

16. I think from Kerry's point of view

it not might be a bad thing to make it seem like Bush is at least running even in electoral votes. I notice that the Kerry guy in the article is saying the election will be close, though Kerry's in a much stronger position going into the convention than Gore was in 2000.

[progressivebydesign]

17. Fournier?? He's the ONE AP "reporter" that makes me want to break things.

Ron Fournier is the writer that I find pisses me off more than any on for AP. In the past year, his stories have gotten further and further up Bush's ass... I think he's hoping to marry one of the perky Bush twins (cuz they're "amazing", right girls?). The story is gone from the headline page now, replaced by a story that Kerry leads Bush in Oregona and PA.

[TruthIsAll]

19. ITS BUSHIT! KERRY HAS A SOLID LEAD

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x585394

[Mr_Spock]

21. Don't believe this crap - Bush is a smelly hole and he is done, toast,

finis! Bye evil dictator - let somebody competent run the country for a change, you retard.

[EndElectoral]

23. Absurd, but it doesn't mean a hill of beans till Nov.

[linazelle]

24. They are doing everything they can to show Bush leading don't buy the hype

I heard on NBC (or was it CNN :shrug: doesn't matter really) that a WSJ poll has Bush leading Kerry 47 to 45 "a dead heat" they said with the margin of error. But still, they took care to show Bush with favor from a very unscientific poll.

[wuushew]

25. This article contains numerous math errors

With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.

not true

If you add the listed swing states it equals = 216 EV

12 States for Kerry = 168 EV

Therefore

51-12-21 = 18 Bush States, 144 EV




(On Edit)
Nevermind they I see they added the lean states to each opponents column

[madfloridian]

26. Here is the AP email address.

[email protected]

[PCIntern]

27. utter and complete Bullsh*t

Many years ago, my father, of blessed memory, told me that we would be facing a proto-fascist regime in the US and the re-election attempt would give us some breathing room or Hitler all over again, depending upon the outcome. To paraphrase someone, the only difference between this group and Hitler is that they'll not persecute an ethnic group withing the US borders - they'll do it elsewhere or ship them to Gitmo or the equivalent. I might add that Hitler had an IQ in three digits.

My Dad fought 4 years in the Pacific and the Philippines and almost died a thousand deaths so that he could watch this group of Orwellian misfits destroy a democracy. He died before they took over - he must be spinning in his grave.

We have to keep working but my sense is that this isn't gonna even be close. I'm not giving one millimeter of room to the Wingers. Not one. We're going to take this right to them and send them back to theri Potemkin Ranch in Crawford - the 7th Circle of Hell.

[Ilsa]

28. They didn't count the 30 for RA and OR

putting Kerry over Bush.

[mermaid]

30. May I Assume You Meant WA and OR??

n/t

[soggy]

29. well well well

this same story has risen like a phoenix from the ashes and is now the #1 news story on yahoo....

what else does a freeper have to do on a saturday night???