TIA Electoral Vote Simulation: Kerry 52.83%, 324 EV, 95.7% Win
Probability
TruthIsAll
NATIONAL AND STATE ELECTION PROJECTION MODELS
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Kerry: 53.21% of two-party vote
Bush: 46.79%
Spread 6.41%
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
National polling data from pollingreport.com
includes:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Kerry 53.59% of two-party vote
Bush 46.41%
Spread 7.18%
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
State polling data from Electoral-Vote.com
Most Likely State-weighted vote % ; Electoral votes
Kerry 52.83% 324
Bush 47.17% 214
Spread 5.65% 109
Kerry 957 of 1000 simulation trial runs.
for a 95.7% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Data is downloaded to Excel for the forecasting model.
One thousand trials are run in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Kerry:
Allocated 60% of undecided/other votes.
Kerry 51.83% of the vote.
Kerry won 88.5% of the 1000 trials
Average 303 electoral votes.
Maximum 403 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Kerry:
Allocated 70% of undecided/other votes.
Kerry 52.83% of the vote.
Kerry won 95.7% of the 1000 trials
Average 324 electoral votes.
Maximum 404 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Kerry:
Allocated 80% of undecided/other votes.
Received 53.82% of the vote.
Kerry won 99.7% of the 1000 trials
Average 343 electoral votes.
Maximum 432 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.60%
Rep 125.03 47.40%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 47.43 48 na 47 na na 45 na 48 45 50 49
TIA NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls,.
adjusted by allocating 70% of undecided/other voters to
Kerry.
10 Poll Average Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.50 50.17 -11.50 46.48 53.52 -7.03
Feb 48.00 45.43 2.57 52.60 47.40 5.20
Mar 48.13 44.38 3.75 53.38 46.63 6.75
Apr 47.38 44.88 2.50 52.80 47.20 5.60
May 47.11 44.22 2.89 53.18 46.82 6.36
June 47.13 45.00 2.13 52.64 47.36 5.28
July 49.13 44.50 4.63 53.59 46.41 7.18
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:
10-Poll Avg 49.13
+ allocation 4.46
= Projection: 53.59 % of total vote.
TIA ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..
Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.
The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread between Kerry and Bush, compared to the
MoE.
Obviously, the greater the spread, the greater the probability
Kerry will win the state.
Mpst Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/other to Kerry
Summary Win Prob Pct AvgEV
Kerry 95.7% 52.83% 324
Bush 4.3% 47.17% 214
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic share of the total two-party vote in
last three elections
Hist Dem% of Kerry Kerry EV Trial runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 52.83% Win 294 345 365 320 332 358 305 367 344 388
AL 44.8 45.0% 10.6% 9
AK 37.6 40.7% 1.0%
AZ 48.8 47.2% 24.2% 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6% 56.0% 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 57.2% 96.4% 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3% 43.1% 9
CT 57.7 62.6% 99.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1% 96.2% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4% 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 53.3% 79.5% 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9% 15.3% 15 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9% 99.7% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0% 0.3%
IL 57.9 60.0% 99.4% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9% 15.3% 11 11
IA 51.8 53.6% 81.6% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6% 1.8%
KY 46.7 45.3% 12.0% 8 8 8
LA 49.2 49.0% 40.1% 9
ME 57.1 52.3% 71.7% 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6% 98.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7% 100.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 53.0% 77.3% 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.0% 77.3% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3% 0.0%
MO 52.5 52.1% 70.0% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8% 3.6% 3
NE 37.5 36.5% 0.0%
NV 49.9 51.4% 63.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 56.7% 95.3% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6% 95.1% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3% 90.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0% 100.0% 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 48.9% 39.2% 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2% 0.1%
OH 50.8 51.1% 60.8% 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2% 0.3%
OR 53.6 56.2% 93.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1% 84.7% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2% 100.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5% 26.6% 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8% 9.7% 3
TN 50.5 50.8% 57.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6% 3.2%
UT 33.6 29.7% 0.0%
VT 59.4 60.1% 99.4% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5% 35.4% 13 13 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1% 89.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 47.2% 24.2% 5 5 5
WI 52.7 55.0% 89.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8% 0.0%
Avg 52.60% 52.83% - 294 345 365 320 332 358 305 367 344 388
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY
Popular Electoral Votes
Sensitivity Vote% Mean Max
1000 Trial Runs
Simulation I
(Conservative)
Kerry Allocation 60%
Kerry wins 88.5% 51.83% 303 403
Bush wins 11.5% 48.17% 235 353
Simulation II
(Most Likely)
Kerry % Und/Oth 70%
Kerry wins 95.7% 52.83% 324 404
Bush wins 4.3% 47.17% 214 313
Simulation III
(Optimistic)
Kerry % Und/Oth 80%
Kerry wins 99.7% 53.82% 343 432
Bush wins 0.3% 46.18% 195 295
Polling Average Trend Projection Poll
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
IBD
Feb 44 41 3 54.50 45.50 9.00
Mar 45 43 2 53.40 46.60 6.80
Apr 40 44 -4 51.20 48.80 2.40
May 43 42 1 53.50 46.50 7.00
June 43 44 -1 52.10 47.90 4.20
July 49 44 5 53.90 46.10 7.80
ABC
Feb 52 43 9 55.50 44.50 11.00
Mar 53 44 9 55.10 44.90 10.20
Apr 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
May 49 47 2 51.80 48.20 3.60
June 53 45 8 54.40 45.60 8.80
AP
Jan 37 54 -17 43.30 56.70 -13.40
Mar 45 46 -1 51.30 48.70 2.60
Apr 44 45 -1 51.70 48.30 3.40
May 43 46 -3 50.70 49.30 1.40
July 45 49 -4 49.20 50.80 -1.60
NWK
Jan 41 52 -11 45.90 54.10 -8.20
Feb 50 45 5 53.50 46.50 7.00
Mar 48 45 3 52.90 47.10 5.80
Apr 50 43 7 54.90 45.10 9.80
May 46 45 1 52.30 47.70 4.60
July 51 45 6 53.80 46.20 7.60
ARG
Jan 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
Feb 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
Mar 50 43 7 54.90 45.10 9.80
Apr 50 44 6 54.20 45.80 8.40
May 47 44 3 53.30 46.70 6.60
June 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
July 49 45 4 53.20 46.80 6.40
NBC
Jan 35 54 -19 42.70 57.30 -14.60
Mar 45 47 -2 50.60 49.40 1.20
May 42 46 -4 50.40 49.60 0.80
June 47 47 0 51.20 48.80 2.40
July 54 43 11 56.10 43.90 12.20
FOX
Jan 32 54 -22 41.80 58.20 -16.40
Feb 43 47 -4 50.00 50.00 0.00
Mar 44 44 0 52.40 47.60 4.80
Apr 42 43 -1 52.50 47.50 5.00
May 42 42 0 53.20 46.80 6.40
June 42 48 -6 49.00 51.00 -2.00
CBS
Jan 48 43 5 54.30 45.70 8.60
Feb 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
Mar 48 43 5 54.30 45.70 8.60
Apr 48 43 5 54.30 45.70 8.60
May 49 41 8 56.00 44.00 12.00
June 45 44 1 52.70 47.30 5.40
July 49 44 5 53.90 46.10 7.80
CNN/Gallup
Jan 43 55 -12 44.40 55.60 -11.20
Feb 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
Mar 52 44 8 54.80 45.20 9.60
Apr 46 51 -5 48.10 51.90 -3.80
May 49 47 2 51.80 48.20 3.60
June 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
July 50 46 4 52.80 47.20 5.60
PEW
Jan 41 52 -11 45.90 54.10 -8.20
Feb 47 47 0 51.20 48.80 2.40
Mar 48 44 4 53.60 46.40 7.20
Apr 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
May 50 45 5 53.50 46.50 7.00
June 46 48 -2 50.20 49.80 0.40
LA Times
Apr 49 46 3 52.50 47.50 5.00
June 51 44 7 54.50 45.50 9.00
ZOGBY
Mar 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
Apr 47 44 3 53.30 46.70 6.60
May 47 42 5 54.70 45.30 9.40
June 44 42 2 53.80 46.20 7.60
July 46 44 2 53.00 47.00 6.00
TIME
Jan 43 54 -11 45.10 54.90 -9.80
Feb 48 50 -2 49.40 50.60 -1.20
May 51 46 5 53.10 46.90 6.20
July 49 45 4 53.20 46.80 6.40
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Notes:
1) State and National polls are adjusted assuming that
70% of undecided/Nader/others will split for Kerry.
2) State polls are weighted by its ratio of total votes cast
in the last 3 elections
3) Third party candidates not considered for this analysis.
4) The analysis is only as good as the quality of polling data
5) State polls are taken over weeks; National polls are taken
over days.
Simulation Methodology:
Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers applied to
probability distributions of uncertain events in order to
generate a range of sampled outcome scenarios. For the
analysis, I used the
latest state polling numbers to simulate an election outcome.
In this case, an "event" is defined as Kerry's
forecast share of a
state's popular vote. An "outcome" is the simulated
probability of Kerry winning the election, based on the total
electoral votes for the states he wins.
For example, if we run 100 trials in the simulation and
Kerry's
electoral vote total exceeds 269 in 90 of the 100
trials, we can reasonably conclude that he has a 90%
probability of winning the election. Each state poll is
assumed to have a margin of error of +/-4% and a uniform
distribution
around the polling numbers.
I use the Cumulative Normal Distribution to calculate
the probability of Kerry winning each state.
The probability is determined by the latest polling spread
assuming a +/-4.0% margiin of error (MoE)
For example:
The latest Kansas poll has Kerry with 41.60%
The probability that Kerry will win the state is 1.79%
The latest Maine poll has Kerry with 52.30%
The probability that Kerry will win the state is71.74%
Excel's random generator function returns a random
number X between 0 and 1. If X is less than
the probability of Kerry winning the state, the state goes
to
Kerry, otherwise it goes to Bush.
For instance, if X = .72 for Florida, then Kerry wins the
state, since X = .72 is LESS than the .81 probability
that Kerry will win the state.
The simulation performs 1000 trial runs for all states. The
electoral votes are summed for those states which fall in
Kerry's column.
The model assumes that Kerry's polling numbers in each state
will increase by 70% of the undecided/other vote. This
assumption is based on historical data which show that they
break for the challenger 80% of the time. .
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%.
with 10% undecided. Allocating 70% to Kerry adds 7%
to his total. Kerry is thus projected to win by 53-47%.
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