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TIA Probabilities of a Kerry win based on the latest National Polls

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 03:25 PM
Original message
TIA Probabilities of a Kerry win based on the latest National Polls
Edited on Mon Jul-19-04 04:24 PM by TruthIsAll
This probability analysis differs from the Electoral Vote
Simulation analysis I have posted. The EV simulation
calculates the probability of Kerry winning each STATE based
on the latest STATE polls. The total electoral votes are
summed in 100 trial runs using Monte Carlo simulation.

This NATIONAL POLL analysis calculates probabilities of Kerry
winning the POPULAR vote based on the latest National Polls if
the election were held today.

I make the following assumption:
1)Conservative:Kerry and Bush split undecided/others (50/50
allocation)
2)Most likely: Kerry gets 70%
3)The MoE is 3.5% in each poll. 

For a group of 10 polls, each with a MoE of 3.5%, the
combined MoE is lower. 

Two sets of probabilities are shown:
The first is based on average of the polls since Feb.
The second is based on the latest polls (June/July).

I have separated FOX, AP and CNN from the other 10 polls to
illustrate the sharp differences in them.

The key results based on the latest pollsare as follows:

FOX, CNN, AP 
The average Probability of a Kerry win is conservatively
40.7% and most likely 55.5%. 

For the other 10 polls:
Probability of a Kerry win is 75.1% (again, this is
CONSERVATIVE).
The Most Likely win probability is 83.3%


Feb-July Polling Data Avg 	      Latest Polls  Prob (Kerry)	
Poll	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Prob Kerry	Bush 	50% 	70% 
								
CNN	48.00	48.71	-0.71	 0.458 	50	46	 0.779 	 0.867 
AP	44.25	46.50	-2.25	 0.362 	45	49	 0.272 	 0.410 
FOX	42.60	44.80	-2.20	 0.360 	42	48	 0.170 	 0.388 
								
AVG	44.95	46.67	-1.72	 0.394 	45.67	47.67	 0.407 	 0.555 
								
								
IBD	44.00	43.00	1.00	 0.565 	49	44	 0.779 	 0.867 
ABC	51.00	45.60	5.40	 0.788 	53	45	 0.878 	 0.896 
NWK	49.00	44.60	4.40	 0.749 	51	45	 0.814 	 0.861 
ARG	48.67	44.67	4.00	 0.730 	49	45	 0.730 	 0.830 
NBC	47.00	45.75	1.25	 0.576 	54	43	 0.947 	 0.959 
CBS	47.67	43.50	4.17	 0.743 	49	44	 0.779 	 0.867 
PEW	47.60	46.00	1.60	 0.596 	46	48	 0.381 	 0.523 
LAT	50.00	45.00	5.00	 0.774 	51	44	 0.854 	 0.901 
ZOGBY	46.40	43.60	2.80	 0.672 	46	44	 0.625 	 0.804 
TIME	49.33	47.00	2.33	 0.635 	49	45	 0.728 	 0.820 
								
AVG	48.07	44.87	3.20	 0.688 	49.70 44.70	 0.751   0.833

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