Josh Marshall story speculation

[fizzana]

On his blog today he wrote:

"....I and several colleagues have been working on a story that, if and when it comes to fruition --- and I’m confident it shall --- should shuffle the tectonic plates under that capital city where I normally hang my hat. So that’s something to look forward to in the not too distant future. And that’s taken some of my time away from TPM and prevented me from sharing with you some delectable tidbits which otherwise I would have loved to have done."

In the two or so years I've been reading his blog I've never seen him suggest something like this. He is normally extremely cautious speculating about any story and I've never seen him use a phrase such as a tectonic shift when discussing any story.

I imagine the story must be huge and is almost certainly something that will hurt the Bush administration. What do you think it can be?

Serious speculation only please.

Personally I don't think it's about Valerie Plame. That story is secreted in a grand jury right now and we'll hear about it sooner or later but when we do it won't be an exclusive story. It could be almost anything else but more than likely connected to 9/11 or Iraq.

Post your thoughts here.

[LibertyorDeath]

1. go here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=1805437&mesg_id=1805437

[capriccio]

2. Not so fast...

I think it could very well be a Valerie Plame story. First of all, Josh has been obsessed with the story and has indicated numerous times in the past that he thinks it's a huge. Second, the very idea that it's been to a grand jury suggests that it's leak-friendly. Third, you're right...sooner or later it will come out, but if sooner turns out to be in the next few days rather than the next few weeks, that makes it a major scoop. And as for the tectonic shift that he promises, that could only mean one thing: Cheney's greasy, fat paw print is all over the damn thing. Anyway, that's where my money is. In any case, Josh deals in less bullshit than any other blogger, so I'd say that whatever he comes home with, it'll be solid and just as hot as promised.

(Not so fast? Not so slow, is more like it. Missed this discussion by about half a day I guess...)

[troublemaker]

3. My earlier thread needs to be put out to pasture

so I'll transplant these thoughts here. (Hi Fizanna)

Anything torture related seems too obvious, and he writes as if this is something a zillion other folks aren't working on.

And he wouldn't expect anything Plame related to sit quietly until broken at leisure... too many moving parts. That's more a leak story than an investigative journalism story (which this teased story seems to be)

So I'm thinking along these lines:

1) Likeliest is a *substantial* old-fashioned m-o-n-e-y scandal; Campaign fund-raising and/or bribery scandal involving Tom Delay and/or Frist, Hastert, Bush/Cheney2004, RNC. Bo-ring, but a perennial favorite.

2) GW Bush dirt; perhaps the real story of his community service gig in Huston or something from his pre-40s life we've never heard about. (Josh's reference to 'delectable tidbits' has a fun-scandal feel)

3) Bush currently drinking or taking psychiatric medications (I'm liking this one more and more... I'll chose this as my official pick)

4) Tenet resignation: the real story

[ewagner]

4. Your #3 is a good choice

Reason?

Capitol Hill Blue has been printing stories on it for about two weks now but none with sources for affirmation. They seem to be a capitol gossip column and, if any responsible journalist, like Josh, ever did serious work on it, ....well, it would be big.

Josh is on vacation probably until next week. I don't expect to see anthing until then

[seemslikeadream]

11. psychiatric medications

That's my offical pick

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

5. Interesting...

I read his blog occasionally, but haven't read any of his straight opinion stuff in The Hill (it is in The Hill, right?)

A couple of questions which might be worth answering:

1) Who are his connections in the gubmit? What topics are they interested in, and about which topics does he post "inside info" most frequently?

2) Has he been... erm... mysteriously silent on any topics lately upon which he used to spend lots of time?

I have to admit that this has piqued my interest. He doesn't seem the sort to go making grandiose statements without following through.

On the other hand, lots of journalists in DC wants to be Woodward & Bernstein to Bush's Nixon. The temptation must be huge to think that you have "the" story. But the American public is so damn fickle. They didn't even give a damn about the torture until the photos showed up.

[troublemaker]

7. When does Washington Monthly come out?

It's that or THE HILL and I'm leaning WM. Can't say why... vibe I guess.

[fizzana]

6. My thoughts

It's not a Tom Delay - campaign finance story. Those happen from time to time and it wouldn't cause a 'tectonic shift'.

The Plame story has reached the 'leak' stage. It doesn't involve any investigation at this point, only a source inside the Grand Jury.

I don't think it has anything to do with Bush's personal life. That's not Josh's style.

It might be the torture story although I think not.

It could be a 9/11 bombshell possibly proving LIHOP.

It could be something to do with Iraq/Halliburton/Cheney and possibly proof regarding the real reasons for the Iraqi war.

[troublemaker]

9. re:

"I don't think it has anything to do with Bush's personal life. That's not Josh's style."

I agree, but it may well not be primarily JM's story. He only said he was working on it with colleagues. And there's a fun/frivolous tone to his post that made me read it twice to be sure he was talking about a real story.

Whatever it is, it tickles him... like something with poetic justice or the undoing of major hypocrisy.

[fizzana]

8. This ties in with something I heard last week

in very general terms.

Someone connected to the White House (and a lifelong Republican) opined that things are such a mess that "Bush must go" in those words.

More to the point they told me that a lot of career people in the Pentagon, CIA and State Department feel the same way and that people are in the process of leaking or trying to leak some seriously damaging information in the hope of damaging Bush to the point where he is no longer electable.

This person is not part of the Bush administration but works with the White House, particularly on Defence.

Among other things this person told me that Iraq is an unholy mess and most people in the loop believe that things are only going to get worse. There is a real fear that the 'war' in Iraq can spill over the borders in the next few months.

[ronzo]

10. For some reason, Josh has been going on about the Catholic issue of late.

What could that possibly mean? What story could be there? Just an observation...

[drb]

12. The repukes have decided to nominate someone else at the convention.