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3 Political...... Truisms........ need pointing out.........

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Jack from Charlotte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:11 PM
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3 Political...... Truisms........ need pointing out.........
1. An election against a sitting president is mostly a referendum on that president's first term. If the voters think the guy did OK or even average, then he wins. See Clinton in '96, Reagan in '84. If they don't think he's doing OK..... he'll lose. See Carter '80, Elected Bush '92.............. One exception. If the alternative is not deemed to be acceptable......... See McGovern '72. And Nixon in '72 probably really belongs in the same group with Clinton '96, Reagan '84, etc..... because things weren't DEEMED as too bad in '72 through the election.

2. Elections with a sitting president are usually not close. See all those mentioned above. Either the incumbent wins fairly easily or he's dumped fairly easily. So when you hear the pundent-fer-brains telling you this election is going to be close.....history says that's wrong.

3.People here are wondering why Kerry has been in a fairly low profile mode lately. Here's why..... When your opponent is having trouble and in the news for screwing up or ANYTHING NEGATIVE..... you stay out of his way and don't get involved. Let him pull his own chestnuts out of the fire. Don't get involved because then the beleaguered opponent can essentially change the subject by attacking you. I know everyone here wants Kerry to jump on AWOL/Moron with both feet. Don't worry. He will. But not as long as the AWOL/Moron is doing nothing but getting negative press..... you just let him slowly twist in the wind........... to coin a phrase.
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KissMyAsscroft Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:16 PM
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1. You are correct..


Kerry is saying just enough to stay in the public arena, but there is no reason for him to interfere with a perfectly good train wreck.

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Jack from Charlotte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:37 PM
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3. "a perfectly good train wreck"....... Well put! (nfm)
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teryang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:36 PM
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2. Things were awful in 72
Edited on Tue May-25-04 07:47 PM by teryang
...but Nixon promised to end the war "with honor." The significance of the watergate breakins and other black bag jobs weren't widely understood either.

McGovern's campaign was end the war, period. McGovern was a little too erudite for "Joe." McGovern was also stigmatized as a "liberal" and a "socialist." I often heard him referred to as a "commie lover."
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Gothmog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:59 PM
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4. Kerry is running a smart campaign so far
I have been pleased with the campaign by Senator Kerry so far. While Bush is hurting himself very well without any help, Senator Kerry should hold back and watch the fun. He can keep his money to be used as efficiently as possible and keep any dirt or opposition research for use at the right time.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:14 PM
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5. Jack, GMTA
Kerry has been running rather bland but pleasant introductory "this is who I am" bio ads here in battleground New Mexico, which are providing a great counter to the nonstop stream of nastiness, lies, and negativity from the Bush gang. This really seems to be having a positive effect, not allowing himself to be trapped into spending all his time countering the blatant lies in the Bush ads. He's just running his bio, letting folks get comfortable with his name and his looks.

He's giving speeches here and there, and staying completely on message. Since he's beein doing this, he's started to get a few mentions and sound bites, even on whore news on the networks.

In other words, he's not making the mistakes of his predecessor, spending his time getting angry at the lies and letting them define him, and pushing himself to the point of exhaustion doing it, and opening himself to mistakes.

I love it when Rove's nastiness goes unanswered, and his strategy fails because the other guy just aint gonna play that game. Kerry's doing just fine. I'm sure Rove is in full panic mode.
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many a good man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:20 PM
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6. 3...Great...Points
Thanks, JfC. The news should be that no challenger has ever been this far ahead at this point in the campaign. Barring any big surprises, it should be a cake walk for Kerry...
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