I think Kerry will break 50% in the polls by the weekend (polls w/ Nader)

[neoteric lefty]

That is my prediction. He is already at 49% in one poll and rising. The last few weeks have been horrible for BushCo and I like how Kerry has stayed above the fray. Anyone disagree?

[theo4487]

1. Not at all

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. I sure hope you're right. A lot of people post all this worry about JK

peaking too soon, etc.

I got news. From my understanding, presidential elections are not necessarily like college basketball games that swing back and forth until the last shot at the buzzer ("They've found Osama/WMD, folks! And that ends the game!") It seems like it is very frequently the case that the winner assumes the lead by the summer and never relinquishes it. Particularly when there is an incumbent, whose performance is being judged.

Clinton led Dole pretty much through the whole campaign, seemed like, and was never really in danger. Can't speak to the Carter/Ford or Reagan/Carter elections, would have to spend time doing some research.

So I basically NEVER see it as a problem for JK to be ahead. It's a problem for Bush. Period.

The other thing is, every minute and poll that JK spends ahead of Bush PIERCES THE VEIL OF INVINCIBILITY that a lot of people have about Bush, and that is VERY important. For a lot of these people, just the very idea that Bush could possibly lose the election is either unthinkable, or has only very recently (last couple of weeks or so) crept into their consciousness. We need to hammer it home, and then make the leap from dream to reality.