"As an incumbent in May of an election year, Bush should be doing

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

much better than behind or tied." This should be the refrain to counter the oft heard Right Wing talking point that "Kerry really should be doing a lot better than being tied or slightly ahead after all the weeks of bad news from Iraq and the prisoner scandal. Kerry's in trouble."

Saw one of the RW pundits (O'Bierne) parrot this point on "Capitol Gang" today and was slammed by one of the other panelists pointing out that the historical precedent was that the election focuses on the incumbent at this point, who should be significantly ahead if they're going to be elected. That BUSH was the one in trouble. That Bush was following the pattern of incumbents who were turned out. Then O'Bierne could only lamely say that "George Bush isn't Jimmy Carter." Yeah that's right you old harpy. Carter actually has a sense of ethics and morals and doesn't delight in the torment of prisoners.

Mark Shields pointed out that incumbents either win or lose in a blowout, they don't win close elections, the only exception being Woodrow Wilson.