Strange Newsweek Poll

[ringmastery]

Bush's approval is at a record low 42 percent, yet Kerry only beats him by 1% in a head to head match-up, which is actually DOWN from the 7% lead he had in April.

Can anyone reconcile this?

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040515/nysa008a_1.html

In the wake of the continuing Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, President George W. Bush's job approval rating has fallen to its lowest level ever recoded in a Newsweek Poll; 42 percent of Americans approve (down from 49% in the last Newsweek Poll, April 8-9, 2004) while for the first time since he took office, a majority of Americans (52%) disapproves.

Turning to this year's presidential race, if the election were held today, Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry would narrowly defeat President George W. Bush in a two-way match-up by 46 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, but with a margin of error of three percentage points, the result is a statistical dead-heat. (In the April Newsweek poll, Kerry defeated Bush by a decisive 50 percent to 43 percent). In a three-way match-up with Independent Ralph Nader, Kerry would again narrowly defeat Bush by 43 percent to 42 percent (again, a statistical dead-heat), while Nader would get 5 percent of the vote.

[Pepperbelly]

1. does not need reconciliation ...

The voters are deciding whether or not to fire Bushie's ass and it's not looking so good for him.

:nuke:

[NMDemDist2]

2. i read on another thread (no link)

that it usually takes 4-6 weeks for the "challenger's" numbers to reflect the incumbant's drop in polls

[Eric J in MN]

3. I guess it's all those negative ads against Kerry (nt)

nt

[Chango]

4. Explanation:

It's believed that the horse race numbers are lagging the approval ratings - a "lagging" indicator, if you will. Most people are focused on Bush, and many have not come to the point of deciding how they will vote in November. When they do, the horse race numbers will close to match the approval ratings.

[lancdem]

7. Yep

Pollster Andrew Kohut had a piece on that in the N.Y. Times this week. Also, I believe the approval rating is based on adults; the registered voters sample is smaller.

[stellanoir]

5. I'm as much befuddled by these polls as you. . .

I know and converse with hundreds of people and I only know 3 who are drinking the * Kool aid. Granted I live in a blue state but talk to folks all over the country. I get waves of conspiratorial theories about the BBV manufacturers being in coersion with the pollsters, and that they're just trying to dupe us into believing that this contest is even remotely close. Then I just have to shake my head and go back out to my garden. . .where a weed is a weed and a plant is a plant.

[stellanoir]

6. Wow. . .

Somebody gave me a star. Thanks so much!!!

[fizzana]

8. There was a good article in the NY Times a few days ago by

Andrew Cohut of the Pew Research explaining this. People are focused on Bush's negatives right now but not yet on Kerry as a viable alternative. This will change.

The two Presidential races that both might mirror this is Carter - Reagan in 1980 and Bush - Clinton in 1992.

In both cases approval ratings for Carter and Bush eroded while Carter and Bush both maintained small leads in the head-to-head polls. Once the conventions passed and people focused on the election the polls moved fairly quickly and dramatically against the incumbent. We'll see the same thing this year.

On the Daily Show a couple of nights ago, William Kristol all but conceded that Kerry will win the election.

[bluestateguy]

9. Don't worry about it

If it was October those numbers would worry me. It takes time for a challenger to emerge as a credible alternative to the incumbent. For many people Kerry is either unknown or just "that other guy". Presidents with 42% approval ratings do not get re-elected (or in Bush's case elected).

[lancdem]

10. Hey, if it makes you feel better

Kerry is ahead in some other current polls - CNN/Time and Pew. Also, I'll bet he has a decent lead in tomorrow's Zogby poll, which also has Bush at 42 percent. And his is based on likely voters.

[blackcat77]

11. They might not like what Bush is doing...

...but they still are looking for reasons to vote for Kerry.

That's the disadvantage that anyone running against an incumbant has.