Hold the phone Californians

[Perky]

Lets say Gray loses the recall vote 45% to 55%

Where are the 45% going to cast there second vote? my guess is that it is going to be something like 28% for Cruz and 12% for Garimendi. The other 5% voter for one of four candidate who are not GOPers (28%+12%+5%=45%)

Now the 55% that vote to recall the Governor:

5% will assuredly vote for Cruz or Garimendi. They just hate Gray but are loyal Dems.
25% will vote for Simon or McClintock No way they vote for anyone else. They would never vote for Arnold because he is pro-choice and dirty.

OK that leaves 25% left over as the max that Arnold can get. ANd that is even before you consider Camejo/Huffington/Ubberoth

But Cruz is pracitcally guaranteed 25% for those who voted to keep Gray and 5% who want to recall him.

I just do not see how Cruz can lose.

What am I missing?

[DagmarK]

1. A list of the Qualified candidates as of last night........

kind of paints a picture for all dem and liberal votes to be so totally diluted that a republican win is a given...........

We are sunk, IMO!

The ONE thing you can always count on the dems to do is to vote their "principles" over the "party". We do it everyday on DU -- "X candidate is 99% great, but he voted no on Bill no. ___, so I won't vote for him."

We will take ourselves right out of the game and the repukes will pass the most AMAZING legislation which their repuke gov will sign and California will be lost FOREVER!!!!! Hell, redistricting will be the first thing they do!

And it will be all our fault! No one to blame.

[Perky]

2. I think you are wrong

Dems and libs will vote against the recall right?
Where will they cast the second vote? Bustamante or Garimendi are our only choices.

So 45% for those two is almost a lock. The only way we lose is id Garimendi and Bustamnte split the vote evenly or like 25% to 20%


The math suggest that Arnold gets no more tha 25% of the vote no matter what and no one else will even come close.

[AP]

3. You're missing the strategy to repress the NO vote

The media and the Republican party don't want this to look serious. They want it to seem like a circus. If it seems serious, lots of Dems will get energized an vote NO-Bustamente or NO-Garimendi (and some will vote NO-Huffington). But if it just gets played as big circus, Dems won't have a sense of urgency, and won't show up to vote. It might end up being 32% NO, and then the three or four dem favorites have to fight over about 38% of the vote, while the Repbulican machine will bring out at least 15% for their favorite son (whom they will keep secret -- all the Repbulicans will be running as moderates and bipartisan, regardless of the truth).

[Perky]

5. The arnold Factor

Simon has to rally the base by being strongly pro-life to keep a gravitation away from Arnold who is pro choice.

Gray has to scare the base to the polls with cries of Artnold being incompetent.

Unions are energixed and funding Gray with $10M

THe press is going to have fun with Arnolds Gaffes and his history.
Arnold's vote will go down but solidify at around 20% of the blue collar vote.


I am not worried that none of this will not happen.

[cherryperry]

4. I think we need to get busy and dump

unrealistic dems just like (I believe) the repukes forced Issa to get out.

Probably the unifier is Bustamente - any feelings about that?

[Perky]

6. Yes IDo

But if Cruz the Gariemendi has to offered a plum.... any one know what the succession rule is for LT Gov? Does Cruz appoint?

[AP]

12. Bustamente makes kind of logical sense around which voters can

wrap their heads.

If you don't like the governor, then let the lieutenant governor whom you elected with a majority of the vote succeed him and not some guy who could never get 50%+1 of the vote, and who got elected because he got 8% of the vote, while Gary Coleman got 2% of the vote.

I think that voters will understand that logic and would be inclined to vote for Bustemante in the recall even if he weren't their first choice to be governor. There's a sense of fair play and continuity in that outcome.

[rogerashton]

7. No -- Bustamente

I think that is the way most Demos will vote. Ought to and will.

If not -- if the Dems stay home or divide their vote -- then we will get another minority ruler.

Davis is recalled with any No vote less than 50%. So, I'm seeing him with 46-47 % of the vote and Ahh-nold getting elected governer with half that, 20-22%.

Then the next recall campaign starts.

[Perky]

8. No way!

This suggest that half ofthe 45% or so who voted against the recall wpoid abandon the party altogether.....That just does not make sense.

[Perky]

9. Here it is in Chart form

No recall 45% Bustamante 30%
Garmendi 10%
other 5%
45%

Yes recall 55% Arnold 20%
Simon 15%
McClintock 10%
Uberoth 5%
Camejo 5%
Huffington 5%
55%

[Trajan]

11. Garamendi ....

has got to go ... he MUST be convinced to leave the race ....

Bustemante MUST be the only big name Democrat on the ballot .... the vote split is just too damning ....

[redeye]

10. What you're missing:

1. More people will vote No-Arianna or No-Camejo. Those people have an excellent case to make, namely that the Democrats try to steal the replacement frmo the Greens, who had a pretty good chance to win when Bustamante could only be written-in.

2. Many people will vote No-nobody - if DU is any indication, then they'll outnumber those who vote No-Bustamante/Camejo/Arianna/Garimendi.

3. Davis will be very lucky to get 45%, considering that his approval rate is roughly half of that.

[realFedUp]

13. 42% are against the recall....8% need convincing.

Scaring voters about the alternatives is a good thing.