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Once again: Do not believe CNN, IBD, ABC. Here is proof Kerry is ahead.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:07 AM
Original message
Once again: Do not believe CNN, IBD, ABC. Here is proof Kerry is ahead.
Kerry is LEADING in 7 of 12 polls. His 12-poll average lead is 1.73%

Only a slight drop from his 2.64% lead in March. And this drop is only due to the pro-Bush shills at CNN, ABC and IBD who had a 10% Bushit turnaround. I don't trust their numbers. I don't believe Kerry lost a vote.

I predicted a month ago that they would not let Bush fall further. I believe they are rigging the polls to keep it "close".

Its NOT really close. Kerry is leading. He has the Big Mo and will only lengthen his lead..

Check Zogby, Newsweek, ARG, CBS.

And Kerry is raising megabucks at a record pace. Bush has shot a $50 million load already. Now its time for Kerry to spend some of that money. And watch his lead grow - but not on CNN, Fox, Msnbc or IBD. They are propping up Bush.

Look to Zogby for the truth.

12 -POLL AVERAGE
Month Kerry Bush Spread
Jan 40.50 51.25 -10.75
Feb 47.38 45.50 1.88
Mar 47.36 44.73 2.64
Apr 47.00 45.27 1.73


1 IBD
Jan na na
Feb 44 41 3
Mar 45 43 2
Apr 40 44 -4


2 ABC
Jan na na
Feb 52 43 9
Mar 53 44 9
Apr 48 49 -1

3 AP
Jan 37 54 -17
Feb na na
Mar 45 46 -1
Apr 44 45 -1

4 NWK
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 50 45 5
Mar 48 45 3
Apr 50 43 7

5 ARG
Jan 47 46 1
Feb 48 46 2
Mar 50 43 7
Apr 50 44 6

6 NBC
Jan 35 54 -19
Feb na na
Mar 45 47 -2
Apr na na

7 FOX
Jan 32 54 -22
Feb 43 47 -4
Mar 44 44 0
Apr 48 43 5

8 CBS
Jan 48 43 5
Feb 47 46 1
Mar 43 46 -3
Apr 48 43 5

9 CNN
Jan 43 55 -12
Feb 48 49 -1
Mar 52 44 8
Apr 46 51 -5

10 PEW
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 47 47 0
Mar 48 44 4
Apr 47 46 1

11 LA Times
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar na na
Apr 49 46 3

12 Zogby
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar 48 46 2
Apr 47 44 3



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demosincebirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
1. Zogby ,
in 2000 was the most accurate in the end.
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IronLionZion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
2. When we're at the ten yard line
the nader voters will vote for Kerry. That and the massive grass-roots support, new voters, and people who are too busy to answer stupid poll phone calls. I haven't been called since early 2000 (that I know of).
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
3. Thanks for the good news
And the facts to back it up! Your post confirms whatI"ve sensed; that the cable networks will do anything to get * elected, including rigging polls. This is serious. They want * to appear to be ahead, so that when Diebold steals the election, it will look legitimate. My feeling is that we should be calling them on it NOW.
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message
4. here's something from a Texas Republican
He voted for bush and now look....


"I had a birthday yesterday and that could be it (59) but I think it's this on going shit at w**k and getting more and more pissed at Bush and his cronies fucking me over....this new "overtime" rule is gonna bite me in the ass hard with his "new" LOWER salary requirment's , now down to $23,000 or above......"

Look for some changes in the polling numbers when the workers start feeling the pinch of the new OT laws.
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JCMach1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
5. Watch the trends... I suspect the Bush movement is about
his shooting a 50Million dollar wad the last 6 weeks.

If this is the ONLY boost he gets out of it, he will sink again in a few weeks.

My feeling at the moment-- statistical dead heat.

Watch the trend...
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LeinesRed Donating Member (735 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:53 AM
Response to Original message
6. also it appears that
the red states are digging in...so are the blue. In the predicted swing states (or purple as they are now calling them) Kerry is leading electorally
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central scrutinizer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
7. a note of caution
don't forget the margin of error - all of the above polls are very close and the spreads are all probably within the margin of error. Plus there is always a danger when averages are averaged - Simpson's paradox may arise. Nonetheless, thanks for the note of optimism
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I am not averaging averages. This is an average of individual polls.
Suffice it to say that if Kerry is leading by a final 12 poll average of 6% on election day, there is NO WAY he can lose - except for massive Bush/Diebold fraud, which is always a possibility.

The electoral vote is a LOCK if the winner gets 51% of the popular vote.
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opihimoimoi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Its Cyclic man. The Mega Rich/Powerful rule in cycles, Waxes and Wanes
These guys who rule us NOW, have become too arrogant and mis used their position of power. As in days of old, when leaders become tyrants instead of real Leaders.......

out comes the Pitch forks and hoes.... in our case, votes for someone else.

Reason and Sanity will soon emerge from their cocoons.
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