For all those "Bush is going down" people on DU...

[Zinfandel]

with every new Bush story...someone inevitably writes, "Bush is toast" or this is the story thats "going to bring Bush down"

I just don't think Kerry stirs any real passion in voters, EXCEPT among the millions of Bush haters (who want anyone but Bush) and the Democratic moderates (which Kerry is).

Bush has all the television media in his pocket and almost all of talk radio and news print. Bush also has as much money as he'll ever need (corporations will make sure of that) Bush is an incumbent, Bush has the capacity to have break through news stories happen anytime he chooses (a bin Laden capture, a terrorist attack here or there, oil prices going down, and on and on) Kerry has none of this.

From the San Francisco Chronicle...

Bad news not hurting Bush in polls
President ahead of Kerry, and approval rating holds steady.

Washington -- It is hard to imagine a worse month of news for President Bush's re- election efforts than the past four weeks: 100 Americans killed in Iraq, chaos in Fallujah and wrenching public questions about the administration's pre-Sept. 11, 2001, intelligence failures.

Yet during that same time frame, Bush's approval rating has remained steady with voters, and his standing against John Kerry has actually improved, leaving Democrats to wonder: If that was a bad month for Bush, what would a good month look like?

The latest poll numbers -- on top of a rebounding economy and Kerry's apparent difficulty convincing Americans that he is better suited to complete the mission in Iraq -- serve as sobering reminders to Democrats of how hard it will be to unseat an incumbent president.

The findings so delighted Bush's election team that after downplaying polls as recently as last month, they distributed a memo to reporters Tuesday that touted Bush's "tremendous resiliency'' and Kerry's "fundamental weakness'' in the polls released this week.

"There were a lot of pundits out there saying that the president was weakened, that the president was in trouble and that circumstances had changed, '' crowed Matthew Dowd, the re-election campaign's chief strategist, in a conference call with reporters.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/04/21/MNGC468FG41.DTL

[sandnsea]

1. Kucinich really has them coming out in droves

I like Dennis fine, but people need to get a clue around here. He excited WAY LESS people than Kerry. Get over it. It's time to beat Bush.

[Zinfandel]

4. Don't attack, just writing the truth.I send money to both Kerry & Kucinich

Kerry doesn't stir up anything in me...but I'll vote for Kerry.

[sandnsea]

15. What does stir something up in you?

Whatever it is, find a group and work with them to educate people about the harm Bush has caused. DO SOMETHING POSITIVE FOR CHRISSAKE!! That's all I'm saying.

[BlueEyedSon]

2. OTOH, all the money Bush is spending is not helping him.

But you're right.

[rockymountaindem]

3. Two words: slanted polls.

Don't believe them. Every poll shows solid support for Kerry among Democrats (which will grow after the convention) and also among independents, who usually decide the election. Even some Republicans are voting for Kerry.

I note your Kucinich avatar. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a fine guy with some good ideas, but he would be scoffed at by the general public. He's just percieved as too far left.

[rainy]

5. our base WAS energized before Kerry SOMEHOW got pushed foward

What happened to the excitement about a real progressive in the running? I think John Edwards stirred the PEOPLE more than Kerry. How did Kerry come from the near bottom to be the candidate? Is it too late to acutally pick someone else?
I like the 70's Kerry but he is now just another political hack in my opinion.

[IronLionZion]

6. "I would tell you where to put your polls"

- John Kerry

[redqueen]

7. Oh FCOL

Let's compare and contrast:

In 2000,

- most did not know what a supreme f$#@up he was (the whore media sure didn't tell us anything about his horrible job as gov),

- he only managed to get close enough to STEAL the election by LYING about himself (compassionate conservative, blah blah blah), and

- in the end, as we all know, twig lost the popular vote to Gore by ~500,000 votes!


In 2004,

- most know what a supreme F#&@UP he is (thanks to 9/11, the Patriot Act, LIES for his unnecessary and illegal war of aggression, wanton destruction of the environment, etc. etc. etc. ad nauseam),

- there is NO WAY he can fool many by lying this time around - for sure he and the corporo-fascist whore media will LIE THEIR ASSES OFF, but you can't fool everyone, AND

- he LOST by 500,000 votes LAST TIME, and THAT was BEFORE he demonstrated what an UNQUALIFIED EMBARASSINGLY INEPT EXCUSE FOR A PRESIDENT HE IS!!!!


The ONLY WAY he can POSSIBLY continue to F$#& this country up after Nov is if he STEALS IT AGAIN.

Which isn't impossible, but we're forewarned.

[July]

9. Good to remember your points.

And when Bush is generating negative passion, what does it matter whether Kerry is exciting or not (personally, I enjoy hearing him talk readily and easily about policy -- it's not "exciting," but its certainly refreshing).

I agree with your points, and would add that many segments of Bush's base are abandoning ship. He will lose by MORE votes this time (if he doesn't steal it -- huge if).

[redqueen]

11. A huge 'if' indeed

It bugs the heck out of me that we're not hearing more about BBV, but I am trusting that Kerry will honor his word and address it more seriously after the convention.

As for passion, Kerry has the luxury of not needing it. Due to the overwhelming disgust people feel towards usurper boy, he's enjoying record-breaking fundraising DESPITE his lack of frothing fans.

[Zinfandel]

17. "After the convention" is far too fucking late.

That's almost in September and nobody going to listen to shit then, all media will be focused on the upcoming Republican convention and the protest outside.

That's what the news stories will be about then...surely NOT BBV.

It'll almost be October before Kerry, if he stays true, as you hope, to bring up BBV...A month before the election? Way too fucking late...no one is going to stop BBV from happening at that late date...It'll just be well, "we'll look at it AFTER the election".

And in September and October Bush/Rove will have all kinds of surprises planned to capture media attenion... and electronic voting machines will take a back seat, (if it's even brought up at all).

If Kerry really gives a shit he should be on it NOW!!!

[calimary]

19. Man, that's for sure. I'd read that Kerry was supposed to have some

new commercials running this week. It's WEDNESDAY already. I haven't seen a whisper...

WTF is going on?

And don't they have anybody making up a memo about it and passing it around - whatever "it" is - so there can be some positive spin for Kerry on anything and everything that happens?

Again -

WTF is going on?

[redqueen]

20. Unfortunately I agree with you

I think it's too late NOW

ALL OF US should look up the person responsible for coordinating the implementation of HAVA and HAMMER THEM ON THIS.

It's our only hope, apparently. The yahoos in DC ain't doing jack. :(

[Minstrel Boy]

8. In a time of crisis, the safe choice is almost always

the wrong choice.

But since the choice has been made, let's hope Kerry doesn't continue to play it safe. Otherwise, the post mortem on the campaign will be a requiem for America.

[West Coast Democrat]

10. The primaries are basically over, and election season is....

quite far off. It's too soon to say there's no passion out there in the base for Kerry.

Gallup and ABC usually have Bush* above 50% in their polls...he's at about 51 now. So, he's pretty much holding steady while spending half of his advertising budget in one month.

[DulceDecorum]

12. Infomercials

Bush is paying those papers to show him high poll numbers.

Do you honestly think for one minute
that the boy-child who barely tolerates "free speech zones"
is going to actually poll John Q. Public?

[Zinfandel]

14. I hope you are correct!!!!! I'm one of those fascist republican haters...

with a passion!!!

ALWAYS HAVE BEEN ALWAYS WILL BE!

I'd like nothing better than to see this lying, greedy, corrupt, elitist fucking shameless republican pig administration, go down.

[OneBlueSky]

13. John Kerry: Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

interesting article from Margaret Kimberley at "The Black Commentator" . . . can't say I disagree with her . . .

http://www.blackcommentator.com/86/86_freedom_rider_kerry.html

(snip)

The Democratic party is headed for defeat if the nominee can’t articulate coherent policies in response to Bush administration incompetence. On the same day that National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was on the hot seat before the commission investigating September 11th, Kerry had no comment about the commission, or about Rice’s testimony. Instead he declared in a speech on economic policy that he would eliminate portions of his own domestic agenda in order to have a balanced budget. As Bush’s Iraq policy unraveled before our eyes Kerry’s only comment was to say that he didn’t have a comment. Because he already gave two speeches to wonkish establishment audiences he didn’t feel the need to add very much on the subject of Iraq.

(snip)

Kerry can be carried over the finish line if Democrats aren’t afraid to embrace a good fight on policy issues and admit that the nominee is in serious need of help. Unity is the mantra for Democrats these days. Political unity usually comes about after post-argument kissing and making up. Democrats must speak up when Kerry tries to be Bush light or doesn’t know what to do when opportunity knocks at his door. Kerry was given a gift when Iraq and 9/11 both broke in his favor. If he can’t capitalize when the tide turns in his favor and the party doesn’t take him to task we can prepare to watch another Bush inauguration in January.

- more . . .

http://www.blackcommentator.com/86/86_freedom_rider_kerry.html

[Voltaire99]

18. Kimberley and a few others are saying this, too

I agree with the analysis. Stan Goff makes similar points regarding Kerry's position on the Iraq occupation here:

http://www.counterpunch.com/goff04202004.html

Although it's too early for the postmortem, Kerry looks rigidly determined to ride Bush-lite into the twilight. I expect that won't be enough.

Much can happen between now and November. But it's mainly up to Kerry. He needs to back off his right wing positions--reduced corporate taxes, pro-Iraq occupation, domestic agenda subservient to deficit reduction--and start delivering some politics that Democrats can relate to.

[derby378]

16. Kerry leads Bush in - FOX News poll?

I kid you not. See for yourself:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm