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Kerry and Dean would be likely to lose in 2004

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Dob Bole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:30 PM
Original message
Kerry and Dean would be likely to lose in 2004
It will depend on their VP nomination to win, according to these projected electoral maps.

Dean
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_colle...

Kerry
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_colle...

That leaves only a few possible VP picks:

Gephardt could yeild 16 electoral votes to the ticket(he would also carry West Virginia)
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_colle...

Edwards could yeild 15 by carrying his home state:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_colle...

Graham could yeild 27 by carrying his home state:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_colle...

Clark would carry his home state (6 electoral votes) thus winning by 1 electoral vote. Breax would likely carry Arkansas and make Louisiana competitive, a possible total of 15.

However, please note that these totals do not take into account the possibility that Bush could be off the ballot in West Virginia or that the "Nader factor" may not exist in New Hampshire. These are possibilities at the moment.



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jiacinto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. What about
Mary Landrieu D-LA
Bill Richardson D-NM
Janet Napolitano D-AZ
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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Richardson isn't running and the US isn't ready for a woman VP
.
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BlueState Donating Member (370 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. I disagree
Edited on Tue Aug-05-03 02:51 PM by BlueState
I think the country is ready. I think that because the country has only come to this place recently there are fewer women in leadership positions from which to choose. But I think it is an interesting idea that should be explored. It may cause more independent women to go with the Dem. In addition, it is certain to spark media attention as it has only been tried one other time in history.

My only reservation would be that the area that this idea would be the biggest liability is in the south(the red states in general). Which, obviously is exactly the region of the country that Kerry or Dean would look for a VP candidate to give them a strategic advantage. My personal opinion is that this is true whether or not the woman is from the south.
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charlie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. If only Ann Richards were 10 years younger...
The only liability that could possibly come from having her onboard would be her outshining whoever's on the top of the ticket.
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BlueState Donating Member (370 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 04:02 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Funny you should say that
As I was writing my response I was thinking "what woman would be the best choice, it would have to be someone like Ann Richards!"
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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't put a lot into these analyses
Many factors will depend on who wins in '04--the state of the economy, the situation in Iraq and elsewhere in the world. If Bush is vulnerable any of our candidates can win.

The only thing I will add is that I think Dean could win NH and West Virginia (due to the gun issue and the states usual democratic tilt) these will give him (if he carries every Dean State) a slender edge in the electoral college.
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Starpass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
3. A lot is going to depend on how far Bush "falls" in the next
year and a half. There may be states that will come unto the Democrats all by themselves without much thought of where the VP is from. In fact, may I say, it's going to depend heavily on how popular or not the little pig is by summer '04.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. I'll ditto that.
I don't see the doom and gloom scenario because this election will not follow ANY pattern.

Sabato is a GOPer. He spoke to a small group of executives in 2000 (one of them was my bro-in-law) and actually told them that Bush would be better for the country. Yeesh.
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Shanty Oilish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. This election will not follow any pattern....
That's for sure. Two things will make it different---the sense of our having been thwarted in 2000, and the threat of terrorism. For once I think the economy is not going to be the determining factor.
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BlueState Donating Member (370 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #3
15. You are absolutely correct
It is very early in the game. If the economy does not improve and W's warring doesn't seem to be going well I would look for a bold move such as selecting a woman or a minority. Otherwise I would expect a more conservative probably southern choice.

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disgruntella Donating Member (983 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
4. interesting - on a personal note -
- as a Montanan these maps always depress the heck out of me. 3 little votes in a state that's always Republican. Makes me want to move to a more contested state, but I don't see myself in Florida anytime soon...
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MisterP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. try Oregon!
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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. move to NJ, look at us, solid Dem all the way
makes me proud : )
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. You could always move to Butte!!!
They've gone Dem in every election I think since there's been a Butte!!!

Montana's the state of Jeanette Rankin and Mike Mansfield and that's something to be proud of!!!
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tpub Donating Member (508 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:36 PM
Response to Original message
6. Breaux??
When did his name come up?

He's looking to dump his Senate seat in favor of being Hollywood lobbyist millionaire...

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joefree1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
9. And Ashcroft will learn to love Calico Cats
While we're projecting here.

The race is too far off for projections on Vice Presidents and their impact. We've got some great candidates. Bushco are jerks and slime rises to the bottom.

I'm leaning Dean but Kerry is another awesome candidate. Most of the other candidates would make a great leader. The rethuglicans are nervous.



For pics of the LA protest against bush go here
http://www.darrias.com/politics/Protest6-27.html
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Vikingking66 Donating Member (402 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:44 PM
Response to Original message
11. I like Sabato's maps, but...
they're not very instructive.
His basic premise is that a presidential
nominee will carry his own home state, in
addition to a base of Democratic states.
There are only a few swing states, like WV
and NH, that are up there.

There's a lot that can happen between now
and then; high voter turnout or Bush being
off the ballot could change the makup.

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dragonquest8 Donating Member (941 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:47 PM
Response to Original message
13. I am afraid so.......
.....





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charlie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
16. He's got Lieberman and Graham
as the two strongest against Bush, followed by Gephardt and Edwards. Dean and Kerry are dead last. :wow:
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. A lot can and will happen before 2004....
Some folks around here are afraid that another "terrorist attack" will be staged just in time for Bush to call the elections and take over the country. They say he's not doing it now because he thinks he can win.

Others say that as the economy tanks, unemployed people will be so angry they'll go to the polls in droves and vote the rascals out.

I hope that lots of people register to vote and do so, and that there is no coup de tat.
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charlie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Oh, I don't put much stock in these projections
It's waaay too early for anyone's predictions to be useful. I'm just bowled over by his picking Lieberman as the one to beat.
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Dob Bole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. The lieberman projection...
is based on the assumption that Lieberman could win Florida.
Yeah, Right.

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carolinayellowdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
17. Arkansas is more likely than North Carolina...
to go Dem on account of a VP nominee. Polls here suggest that Edwards cannot even carry NC at the top of the ticket, let alone as running mate.
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mandyky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:18 PM
Response to Original message
19. From what Dean said last night about VP picks
I think he might either choose Graham or Edwards - covering the south and insider in washington DC aspects he spoke of.
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devarsi Donating Member (800 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #19
26. Edwards?
Didn't Edwards support the Iraq attack?

I don't see Dean moving that way.
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
20. Graham's the Only VP Choice I Can Think of

who's worth selecting just as a favorite son. Flordia's so large as so close to even that it's hard to see how Bush can win if he loses Florida.
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Wapsie B Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-03 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #20
31. That's it.
Graham would be a great VP choice if only to neutralize Jethro's influence.
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devarsi Donating Member (800 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
25. Colorado, Arizona, Indiana, Ohio
All areas where I think that that a Dem Pres candidate can put a state into play.

Colorado (9 EC votes) wants to go Dem, you can feel it. A third party conservative would do it, or the state may already have lurched to the left, as Californians continue to move to the Denver metro area, more so than from any other state (runners up are Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Illinois)

Arizona (10 EC votes)has a Dem Gov, and the state can be fought for, possibly won. Gore pulled 45%, Nader pulled 3%, Bush pulled 51%. Clinton won AZ in 1996.

Ohio and Indiana (20 and 11 EC votes, respectively)are the Red spur in a line of Blue states, and though considered Safe for Bush, a fiscal conservative Dem can fight and win in either or both. Indiana has the country's worst record for bankruptcies, and the state has lost over 100,000 jobs in the last two years. Ohio went to Bush by less than 5%, and Gore didn't fight very hard for his great results.

These four states hold 50 of the 270. If the Dem picks up just Ohio, and this EC Map is accurate, we win. If we pick up Ohio and on other, we can still lose one or two leaning blue states, and still win.

We gotta put these states in play.
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Dob Bole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-05-03 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. How Republican is Indiana?
Edited on Tue Aug-05-03 11:48 PM by Dob Bole
Will Dems be able to keep Bush off the ballot there?
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-03 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #25
29. I think colorado could be in play
but it's not because of Californians moving here! Most of the immigrants from CA are from southern CA. -(read: Orange County) and they're Republicans! Twelve years ago CO had 400k more registered Democrats than Republicans, now there are 800k more Republicans - almost all of this change due to immigration.

The Denver metro area is getting more conservative - look at the recent mayoral election where Hickenlooper (a Rockefeller Republican), easily defeated Mares, a traditional/union Democrat.

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DoctorBombay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-03 12:14 AM
Response to Original message
30. The Dean map
Is the exact result of 2000, save for New Hampshire going our way. The electoral totals are different due to the census.

Now, I think Nevada goes our way this time around. Yucca Mountain will be the difference. If so, and the rest of the map is the same, then it's a dead heat, 269-269.

I agree with other posters that Arizona and Colorado are also in play, and if Graham is the VP, we get Florida.
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-03 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. No those maps have been updated
they are current
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Dob Bole Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-06-03 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
33. It looks like a Graham/Gephardt ticket
would produce the best electoral votes. I'm a Dean guy though.
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