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History says this years election could be a blow-out!

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Ugnmoose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 06:49 PM
Original message
History says this years election could be a blow-out!
I've done a little research into past Presidential elections going back to 1932. In every election where the incumbent was running for re-election he either won or lost in a blow-out.

Here are the results and you as I may find them fascinating:


Year Candidate Electoral Vote % of Vote

1932 Roosevelt 472 57.4%
Hoover* 59 39.7%
Others 2.9%

1936 Roosevelt* 523 60.8%
Landon 8 36.5%
Others 2.7%

1940 Roosevelt* 449 54.7%
Wilkie 82 44.8%
Others 0.5%


1944 Roosevelt* 432 53.6%
Dewey 99 46.0%
Others 0.4%

1948 Truman** 303 49.6%
Dewey 189 45.1%
Thurmond 39 2.4%
Wallace, H. 2.4%
Others 0.6%

1956 Eisenhower* 457 57.6%
Stevenson 73 42.1%
Others 1 0.3%

1964 Johnson** 486 61.3%
Goldwater 52 38.6%
Others 0.1%

1972 Nixon* 520 60.7%
McGovern 17 37.6%
Schmidtz 1.4%
Others 0.3%

1980 Carter* 49 41.0%
Reagan 489 50.8%
Anderson 6.6%
Others 1.6%

1984 Reagan* 525 58.8%
Mondale 13 40.6%
Others 0.6%

1992 Bush* 168 37.5%
Clinton 370 43.0%
Perot 18.9%
Others 0.6%

1996 Clinton* 379 49.2%
Dole 159 40.8%
Perot 8.5%
Others 1.5%

*Stands for Incumbent
**Running for first full term

For what it is worth I'll make a prediction. I say that Shrub does not even get the percentage vote that his father got in 1992 (37.5%)
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carpetbagger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. What about 1976?
And before you say that Ford never won an election to become president, think about what you're saying.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Ford had never even run however
plus he was running on the back of a huge scandal. big difference.
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Media_Lies_Daily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Okay. I thought for a while, and Ford never won a presidential election..
...because he was selected to be Nixon's VP in 1973 following the forced resignation of Agnew after he and Nixon had been reelected in 1972.

Ford served as an unelected president from 1974 until 1976 when he was defeated by Carter.

If you're implying that Ford won elections to Congress, that's pretty obvious. But, Ford was not elected to the position of VP or president.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 06:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. that's a bold prediction
unless no third party challenger as big as Perot emerges, you're predicting him to do worse than McGovern.

splitting the Perot vote equally between Clinton and Bush I gives Bush I about 47%, and I can see him getting less than that however.
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Ugnmoose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. You can't make that assumption
All incumbents run on their records. The public either loves what they have done and votes them in for a second term or they throw them out. I think the mood in this country is quite clear. Shrub has no record to run on. At best he will get the hard-core Repuke vote plus a small percentage of independents. I say 37% is very realistic.
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snippy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-12-04 07:33 PM
Response to Original message
6. Your research reflects the fact that nearly every election involving
an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. This election will be no different. It definitely will be a referendum on Bush. The three main issues probably will be the economy, Iraq, and Bush's incessant and compulsive lying. These issues likely will determine 10 to 15 million votes. Those 10 to 15 million votes will preclude another close election.

Since 9/11 Bush approval rating has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bounce. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough and strongly enough, Bush will win easily.

Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Bush probably can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq between now and November. Unless another issue arises between now and November, the economy must improve and Iraq can not get too much worse for Bush to win.

FIRE THE LIAR

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