Stratfor says,"the source of the news is clearly inside the Bush admin.

[rodbarnett]

There have been a lot of rumors concerning bin Laden's imminent capture lately so I thought I would bring to your attention comments from a recent Stratfor report.

Stratfor says,"the source of the news is clearly inside the Bush administration, which obviously wants the world to know what is coming."

And Stratfor also confirms our earlier suspicion that Musharaff and the US cut a deal about nukes and bin Laden: "dministration sources have said that Washington and Islamabad have cut a deal under which the United States will be permitted to send thousands of troops into Pakistan and will be provided with Pakistani intelligence assistance as to the location of bin Laden. In exchange, the United States will not make an issue of the pardon given Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist, who was charged with disseminating nuclear technology."

And here are the final points Stratfor makes about the deal of the century:

"Either Musharraf has the power to force the ISI to do his bidding or he doesn't. If he does, bin Laden will soon be in U.S. hands, the Pakistani Islamist machine will be in a state of collapse, and -- coupled with results in Iran and Saudi Arabia of the Iraq war, the war with al Qaeda can be wrapped up.

"Alternatively, Musharraf cannot deliver what he promised. In this case he throws the Americans out; sides with the Islamists, leading to a U.S. war in Pakistan; is overthrown by an Islamist government with the same result; or Pakistan collapses into chaos, and the United States spends a couple of years sorting through the wreckage.



http://agonist.got.net/

comment : does sound possible to you?

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Yes

and Stratfor is pretty accurate

Now personally I suspect Nusharaff does NOT control the ISI and that is why he gave the pardon to Proferssor Khan.. he was buying time...

Will know soon enough, ans if Musharaff falls, Al Qaida gets a nuke

[priller]

2. I tend to agree

Musharraf is walking a tightrope.

[madrchsod]

3. getting an old sick guy

out of a hole somewhere is not going to stop the radical right of the muslim religion. the "islamists and the botherhood is not going away. the american people may think that but it won`t happen....

[Timefortruth]

5. You are so right. In some respects it may make things worse.

It will invigorate them further.

It was always my understanding that OBL was the spiritual and charismatic leader but the strategic and military organization came from someone else in AQ.

[DoYouEverWonder]

4. The same story was reported

in the Dawn this morning. They must be reading Stratford too?


http://www.dawn.com/2004/03/01/top5.htm

American troops for Osama operation?

[bemildred]

6. Possible, sure. Sounds like a reasonable hypothesis.

The part about a war in Pakistan is funny.
STRATFOR tends to be very inside the box in their thinking.

[LoneStarLiberal]

7. I Think They Are A Little Optimisitc But It's Plausible

Stratfor's pretty tied into the U.S. government and both the current and retired intelligence community. Their analyses are usually moderately conservative (since they appeal to the business community and not the wonk community) and have a good record of accuracy.

I think this is indeed plausible. It makes sense given that we've talked up our joint operations with Pakistani forces

One thing that we ought to remember here is that the Pakistani military and Pakistani government in general are not welcome in the tribal areas along the Afghanistan border. While ISI (Pakistani intelligence) has some very tight links with some of the families in the region (as do some of the Pakistani Army and Pakistani Air Force commanders who are from the area), I would operate under the assumption that any Pakistani armed forces operations in those areas are effectively operating in hostile territory.

I do think that Stratfor's take on a bin Laden capture ending our war with al-Qaeda is far too optimistic. Al-Qaeda is far more than Osama bin Laden. If you're American, you associate the two closely with one another because Americans tend to have a very hierarchical association of leaders and organizations. Al-Qaeda is not best understood in these terms; you can remove bin Laden and you still have left the underlying cause of al-Qaeda unaddressed and therefore you still have al-Qaeda.

[liberalitch]

8. gotta catch that fish 'fore november

wouldn't be prudent not to be re-elected