Bush will gain NADA from "capturing" Osama. Here's why...

[TruthIsAll]

He's going down. The capture of OBL will do nothing for him. Its just more Conventional Wisdom Bushit. The people know it is all a political ploy. OBL will get him 2 points, if that. And it will be temporary.

Keep it simple. Bush has seen his poll numbers rise only three times in 36 months: 9/11 (+33), Iraq war (+12), Saddam capture (+4). The Bush Bump for each manufactured event decreased by a factor of 2/3.
His numbers declined in each of the other 33 months.

Currently, Bush approval is exactly 50% based on an average of the following 8 polls: 1=Newsweek 2=Fox 3=CNN 4=Pew 5=Harris 6=CBS 7=ABC 8=Time

Expect him to drop to the low forties.

Date....1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8........ Avg...4moMA
02/01 52 55 57 53 na 53 55 52 ……....53.86
03/01 55 56 63 56 56 53 58 55 ……....56.50
04/01 57 63 59 53 49 60 63 na ……....57.71 56.02
05/01 57 59 53 50 59 56 55 52 ……….. 55.13 55.80
06/01 na 59 55 51 50 57 na na ……….. 54.40 55.93
07/01 na 56 52 52 56 na 59 55 ……….. 55.00 55.56
08/01 na 55 55 50 52 53 55 na ……….. 53.33 54.46
09/01 86 81 51 80 na 50 86 84 ……….. 74.00 59.18
10/01 84 80 87 84 88 89 92 89 ……….. 86.63 67.24 9/11 +33
11/01 85 84 87 84 86 87 89 87 ……….. 86.13 75.02
12/01 82 86 86 na 82 85 89 82 ……….. 84.57 82.83
01/02 na 83 84 80 79 86 86 77 ……….. 82.14 84.87
02/02 83 81 82 78 79 84 83 na ……….. 81.43 83.57
03/02 74 80 81 na 77 82 82 75 ……….. 78.71 81.71
04/02 71 79 76 74 75 78 79 75 ……….. 75.88 79.54
05/02 73 72 77 na 74 76 78 72 ……….. 74.57 77.65
06/02 70 74 70 70 70 71 77 70 ……….. 71.50 75.17
07/02 68 70 76 67 62 70 72 70 ……….. 69.38 72.83
08/02 61 69 68 60 63 65 69 na ……….. 65.00 70.11
09/02 70 66 66 63 68 66 69 65 ……….. 66.63 68.13
10/02 61 65 67 na 64 66 67 61 ……….. 64.43 66.36
11/02 60 68 63 61 65 63 67 64 ……….. 63.88 64.98
12/02 na 65 64 61 64 61 66 55 ……….. 62.29 64.30
01/03 56 63 63 58 na 65 59 53 ……….. 59.57 62.54
02/03 61 57 61 54 52 59 64 62 ……….. 58.75 61.12
03/03 53 60 57 55 na 56 62 54 ……….. 56.71 59.33
04/03 71 71 70 67 70 68 71 62 ……….. 68.75 60.95 Shock and Awe +12
05/03 65 65 69 65 na 67 71 63 ……….. 66.43 62.66
06/03 61 66 64 60 61 67 68 na ……….. 63.86 63.94
07/03 55 60 62 58 na 66 59 55 ……….. 59.29 64.58
08/03 53 59 60 56 57 60 59 na ……….. 57.71 61.82
09/03 52 58 52 55 na 55 56 52 ……….. 54.29 58.79
10/03 51 52 55 50 59 52 54 na ……….. 53.29 56.14
11/03 52 52 54 50 na 54 56 52 ……….. 52.86 54.54
12/03 51 52 55 58 48 49 53 54 ……….. 52.50 53.23
01/04 54 58 60 56 50 60 58 54 ……….. 56.25 53.72 Saddam Capture +4
02/04 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 ……….. 50.00 52.90

[The Mad Hatter]

1. Wishful thinking

This is late February, the polls mean nothing. He still has a $150 million campaign warchest waiting to be unleashed, plus the electoral map is heavily weighed in his favour. Bush will be reelected in November, whether they "capture" bin Laden or not.

[packerssuck]

2. You underestimate the stupidity and gullibility of the american populace

[TruthIsAll]

6. The 33% who are stupid are Bush's base..so what?

The other 67% is made up of liberals, dems, repubs and independents who are NOT stupid.

No one who hates Bush now (and we are in the MAJORITY) will EVER go back to him.

[lojasmo]

16. Bull$#!t

Before the war 70% of americans believed Sadam was behind 9/11. That is the actual percentage of stupid americans.

[TruthIsAll]

19. Not stupid,they are misinformed & ignorant. What are the numbers now?

There are many intelligent people who believed the crap they were fed on cable. And the same goes for the print media, except for a few.

But things are changing now.

That 70% Iraq war approval is down to 50% now - and falling fast.

[ThoughtCriminal]

32. Yeah, I've noticed no one polls that question anymore.

nt

[TruthIsAll]

3. You are deluding yourself. And you are on the wrong board.

Enjoy your short stay.

[mopaul]

4. not so fast there mad hatter

have another sip of tea and think. you may be exactly right, but you may be wrong also. crazier things have happened. i too am a pessimist, but i am not a soothsayer. at this point, anything could happen. in fact, whatever happens is going to be downright scary.

these people are insane, and they are not going to give up their power without a nasty fight.

all he has to brag about is osama and saddam and the war, everyone is beginning to turn on him finally, so lets's not count our eggs yet.

but if he is 're'-elected, we are in for a very bumpy ride.

[packerssuck]

5. I'm sorry truth

but your memory is short. Remember the jump in polls for Bush when Sadaam was captured. This capture will hog the headlines and divert the attention from the real issues.

[TruthIsAll]

9. It's all political Rove BS: the question will be, what took Bush so long?

Think about it. OBL could have been captured 2 years ago, but they chose not to do so in order to keep the Terra bogeyman alive.

That is an impeachable offense.

[TruthIsAll]

10. You miss the point. Look at the damn numbers. His poll numbers

rose by 4 points on average after Saddam was "captured" in Dec. And they came right back down. And they will going continue down.

Some bump.

[OneTwentyoNine]

25. Look at the numbers on your chart for 9/11

Look at the jump for Chimp when 3,000 got killed. You don't think the killer of 3,000 on US soil would give Bush a huge bounce if captured??

Stay tuned.....


David

[TruthIsAll]

27. On 9/11 no one knew that BUSH KNEW. That's the difference.

And you forget all that has happened since: the scandals, the lost jobs, the Iraq fiasco, the lies, the 9/11 coverup, the stolen 2002 elections, Plame, etc....

You really expect that he will win back the 40% he lost?

Get real. He gets a 2-3% bump, if that.


Bush is done. No Rove magic

[Bob3]

13. No - for several reasons.

1. * is a horrible campaigner - just god awful - he's stiff, inarticulate and has no sense of connection to anybody - he likes to be worshiped there isn't that joy of meeting people that the best ones have.

2. The 150 million dollars can't guild a turd. Sure they can toss a heck of a lot of dirt but a fast and hard response to each RNC point has proved effective so far. They can try to slime but they can't make * look good. Looks bad for an incumbent.

3. The capture of Bin Laden has taken too long - if it comes in October even the average American will see through it - especially if the economy keeps flopping like a fish on a river bank and the jobs keep leaching out the country. And no matter when Ben Laden is hauled out in front of the cameras we're still stuck in Iraq and kids will still get killed at about the pace of one a day.

4. The American people are not as dumb as people like to think - granted most like to get along and go along but remember they did elect Bill Clinton Twice and more of them voted for Gore. I suspect that people are not stupid - they will only start to think when they have no other choice - and * is giving them no choice.

I said his daddy was beatable and he is even more beatable.

[MoonRiver]

21. Are you sure YOU'RE not engaging in "wishful thinking".

Bush IS tanking. The anger toward him has a lot more to do with domestic policies than catching OBL. Being out of work and with no health care is a lot more significant to Americans than an event which happened 21/2 years ago. * and his band of corporate thugs are the real threat to us and Americans are waking up to this fact. * better think about what cave he wants to hide in once we have a Democratic president, and an attorney general who can start a REAL investigation into what went down pre and post 9/11. :mad:

[aquart]

24. Aww. He can only win if he cheats. He can only cheat if.....

He has the state governments on his side. He's got Florida, maybe. He's got California, maybe. He's got Texas, maybe.

That's it.

Even Republican governors are hating his guts these days.

[OneTwentyoNine]

7. As they say "timing is everything"

If OBL came out of cave #37 today It would mean little and be mostly forgotten by Nov. If they pull him out of his hidy hole 2-3 weeks before the election the results would be much different.

Watch how quickly SH had NOTHING to do with 9/11 if Bin Laden is found.

David

[TruthIsAll]

14. I suppose, by your logic, that if OBL were captured the day before the

election, it would be optimal timing for Bush.

No, sir, the people would see right through it.

Only the fundies would be impressed.

The rest of us who decided to kick his sorry ass out of the WH won't be fooled into changing our minds because of another phony, bogus, manufactured, staged "event", orchestrated by KKKarl Rove...

[ThoughtCriminal]

33. IF they really can pick the date

I would say late September. "October Surprise" automatically generates questions about timing. Will the bounce carry all the way to Election? It might - hatred for OBL runs MUCH deeper.

[DoYouEverWonder]

8. Gee, looks like they're out early

this morning? You must be hitting a nerve.

I do like the way you do math, it all adds up to me.

Another reason Osama's capture won't help Bu$h much is because it won't be the end of the war on terra. People are going to wake up a few weeks later and realize that even if Osama is caught or killed, Bu$h's war will never end. He will just create another bogey man to keep the sheeple scared.

[Kamika]

11. Well it will be ahuge boost, but I'm sure only temporarily.

seriously aslong as we don't capture him one week before the election or something it's cool

[OneTwentyoNine]

12. One thing TIA,never underestimate how STUPID people are in the US

67% thinking SH was somehow responsible for 9/11
3% thinking that members of Congress choose the winners for the Golden Globe Award show.

Hey,this is a country that re-elected Reagan with 10 million out of a job. I do think that people are waking up to what a loser Bush and his administration are,that's the message that needs to be focused on and kept on track.

David

[packerssuck]

15. over 50% american people think that Iraq war was good thing

and approve of Dubya's war on terror. This is your typical Bush voter.

http://www.lilligren.com/Redneck/redneck_family_photo.htm

[TruthIsAll]

17. See my post #6...

The majority of people are NOT stupid. Those who are truly stupid or ignorant comprise his base of 30-35%. We don't want, nor do we need, their votes.

Do you believe that former Bush supporters who now hate his guts are stupid?

Do you think that now that they have decided to vote Dem or sit out the election, they will change their mind becuase of a phony OBL photo-op?

[TruthIsAll]

18. Flash: Bush captures OBL, brother of his former Arbusto business partner

...

[OneTwentyoNine]

20. You know about Bush/Bin Laden business deals,I know...

But honestly how many other Americans really,really know the facts about their dealings? How many know about PNAC,how many know about Carlyle?

Anytime I mention to the unknowing that the only aircraft in the air on 9/12 carried members of the Bin Laden family out of the US they are totally shocked,and I think somewhat unbelieving of what I just said.

I think though that thoughts are changing about this administration by the masses but..a OBL capture would be on Whore TV 24/7. Bush would get a huge bounce,but like I said it depends on when. No..the day before the election is just a bit late,but late Sept/mid-October would be perfect.

Bush has the master of dirty tricks on his payroll,these guys will do anything and everything to try to get a REAL win for Bush.

David

[rock]

22. I tend to agree

Certainly it will be minimal. The longer it takes to get Bin Laden, the less the effect. The American voter just does not have much of an attention span. By now, Bin Laden is not relevent (to use bushsucks* own words).

[aquart]

23. CBS Morning News just announced that Iran radio is saying it

And that Rumsfeld's recent visit was because of Osama's capture.

[OneTwentyoNine]

26. Small bounce then--way,way to early for Nov election....nt

[nostamj]

28. as long as bush*'s CREDIBILITY remains challenged

over jobs,
over tax cuts,
over the reason for Iraq,
over the 9/11 failures,
over the 9/11 stonewalling,
over the TANG allegations,

as long as people are skeptical, the poll bounce will be LESS than it was for Saddam - and that evaporated almost immediately

by maximizing the threat from SH while miinimzing OBL, the bushies screwed getting a big impact from the OBL 'capture'

[terryg11]

29. those numbers dont mean squat

especially if he does get Osama. Catching the person responsible for 911 will do wonders for Bush. Even if he rolls Bin Laden out in the next few weeks it may be enough for many voters. Bush could stand up during the debates (if there are any) and answer all the questions with "All I know is, I caught Osama. thnk you, thank you" and he will still have a good chance at winning

[catmandu57]

30. The only bump he'll get is with the 33% who love the moron*

There's a big problem of timing with this also, bring him out too soon and it uses up any capital. Bring him out too late and everyone and their dog sees it for a political ploy.

In 2000 the idiot* was an unknown quantity, after three years he has a horrible record, there for everyone to see. To hell with those freeps who would vote for him if he ate a big stinking turd live on national tv.

We need to bring those people whose anger is simmering to a boil and push w* and co. into doing something really stupid so that there can be no excuse for not getting rid of his sorry ass.

I would also go as far to say al quaida has something particularly nasty planned in the event that obl is paraded around, while jr.* thumps it's chest.

[TruthIsAll]

31. The only bump will be from a few repubs or indies...

who will have a knee-jerk reaction.

If Bush were serious about catching OBL, it would have happened a long time ago.

The question should be: why all of a sudden is OBL relevant?
The answer is obvious: herd the sheeple.
The only problem is: the sheeple have been fleeced too many times before; they won't be this time.