The Nation State: Strength in numbers

[T_i_B]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1334199,00.html

For a generation or more, it has been an article of faith, at least in Europe, that the nation state is in profound decline. The rise of globalisation, growing economic interdependence, the spread of new international organisations and the power of multinationals, not to mention the European Union itself, suggested that the future lay in new forms of global and regional governance. This was a delusion. The opposite is happening. Nation states will be the decisive players in global affairs over the next few decades.

So much is already clear with the United States. During the cold war, it behaved as a superpower constrained by its allies. Since 9/11 it has acted as Prometheus unbound, a nation state answerable to nobody but itself. Even if John Kerry is elected president, the US will not revert to its pre-9/11 behaviour. Kerry may emphasise the importance of allies, but the unilateralist instincts of the sole superpower will not be put back in the bottle. The weakness of Europe as a global player is also a reminder of the efficacy of the nation state. Economically, the EU remains a formidable force, rivalling the American economy. As a political player, though, it pales into insignificance in comparison.

There is another sense, though, in which we are likely to see the resurgence of the nation state. The last century was dominated in its first half by medium-sized European nation states, and then subsequently by the rather larger US and Soviet Union. Of the world's presently five most populous countries - China, India, the US, Indonesia and Brazil (in descending order) - only the US has been a major global power during the course of the last half-century. This picture, however, is about to change; indeed, given the rise of China, it is already changing.

Over the next half-century, the world is likely to assume a rather different shape. For the first time in the modern era, the world's two most populous countries (by a huge margin) will become major global players in their own right. It will mark the biggest watershed in global affairs since the birth of the modern nation state system.

[Sugarbleus]

1. Intriguing article......It's interesting that no one has taken much

notice to the RISE of China's power--economic and otherwise. I heard an author (who lives in China--his name escapes me just now) speak at an international affairs panel over C-span some weeks ago. He talked about the creeping influence of China in Africa......and no one, in this neck of the woods appears to notice or care.

We live in interesting times. Thanks for the post.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Interestingly, The Times (UK) has an article on China today

from Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek (I resorted to The Times when I couldn't access The Guardian's website - have they fallen prey to an American right wing hacker pissed off at the Clark Country vote letters?)

Iraq is a sideshow beside China's mighty challenge

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-1324083,00.html (subscription only outside the UK)

Take an important example: one of the reasons that the United States has been able to dominate the global economy has been its awesome lead in science and technology. But here too, Asia is gaining strength. From computer science to biotechnology, one can see the beginnings of Asian science. It is at a very early stage, but again, the arrow is moving in only one direction. Physical Review, a top science journal, notes that the number of papers it publishes by Americans has been falling dramatically, from 61 per cent in 1983 to 29 per cent last year. The journal’s editor told The New York Times that the main reason was China, which now submits a thousand papers a year.

With economic growth comes cultural confidence and political assertiveness. The West has long taken Asia for granted, seeing it as an investment opportunity or a stage where great power rivalries could be played out, as in Vietnam and Korea. But this too will change. China and India are both proud and ancient civilisations. They are also large internal economies, not totally dependent on exports to the West. (In the wake of the East Asian crisis of 1997, all the East Asian tiger economies collapsed. But China and India grew solidly even when demand from the West dried up.) This rise of confidence is just beginning — it’s clearly visible in trade negotiations — and will only grow with time.

The United States will remain the most powerful country in the world. But the gap between it and these new great powers will slowly shrink. And to continue thriving, it will have to adjust to the rise of Asia. Asians should also hope that America focuses on this new world, because only the United States can ensure that Asia’s rise happens in a way that is beneficial to both Asia and the world. Otherwise, the challenge from Asia could easily produce a retreat into fear, protectionism and nationalism all around.
...
The analogy is not exact. The War on Terror is crucial, winning in Iraq is necessary, Middle East peace is important. But I wonder whether as we furiously debate these matters in America, we resemble Englishmen in the waning days of the British Empire. They vigorously debated the political and military situation in remote areas, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan (some things don’t change). They tried mightily, and at great cost, to stabilise disorderly parts of the globe. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the United States of America was building its vast economic, technological and cultural might, which would soon dominate the world.

[teryang]

3. The war on terror is a myth

It is not crucial.

The oil companies are very much aware of Chinese presence in Sudan. Objective- force them out.

Globalism has sort of morphed into colonialism as America loses its competitive edge.

[Sugarbleus]

4. Teryang and Muriel... Thanks for the responses to this

issue. I'm VERY curious how all this is going to play out. I'm booking/saving this thread....may need to refer to it before too long.

Extremely interesting points of view... Thanks again.