Campaigns worry about last-minute surprise

[UCLA Dem]

October surprise?

<snip>

Even if bin Laden remains elusive, the capture of a major terrorist leader -- bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri or Iraq's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leader of a militant group that has claimed to have beheaded two American hostages -- could provide an October boost for Bush.

<snip>

But Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the administration risks a backlash."Producing a high-level al Qaeda leader would immediately invite suspicion about whether this person has been cooling his heels in a safe house some place," Baker said.

As Election Day draws nearer, Bush's options for election-influencing actions are dwindling.With three tax cuts under his belt, there is not enough time for a new stimulus if the economy takes a sudden turn for the worse, perhaps reflected in a bad jobs report on October 8 -- the last unemployment report before the election -- or in a stock market swoon.

<snip>

One "Hail Mary" pass could be for Vice President Dick Cheney to leave the ticket -- perhaps to be replaced by a popular moderate such as former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.Republican strategists scoff at such talk. But if Bush starts to fall behind, he and his advisers might want to try harder to reach out to moderates who dislike Cheney intensely. Cheney, who has had four heart attacks, could cite health concerns.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/02/october.surprise.ap/index.html

[ogradda]

1. hmm bumping darth vader...

naw still wouldn't work.

[CarolynEC]

2. I think Giuliani has indulged his penchant for crossdressing...

... a bit too often to make him a viable candidate.

Get those Saturday Night Live appearances in heavy rotation on TV, and I thing Bush's base will just stay home on Election Day.

[Twinkie]

3. "Campaigns worry about last minute surprises"

I personally think (on pretty good authority) there will be more than one or two October surprises.