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Dear Mr Silvio Berlusconi:
I really envy and admire you for the ideal position in which you have placed your country. For decades, I have tried to be in the same political spot, but I failed while you managed it. I salute you.
Italy is now very weak, but it is the fuse that may start a global economic wildfire - one that could burn down the whole global economy as we know it. The default of Italy could bring down the euro, which in turn could kindle a second deeper recession on the old continent. This could push overboard the already shaky American GDP, and as a consequence, it could cause a global economic meltdown. The chain reaction is uncertain, but the size of Italy and of its problems makes it possible if not likely.
Developed and developing countries have got too much to lose to risk to starting this chain reaction. They are better off by simply trying to prevent it. Therefore, they know a crisis in Italy must be averted. The November 3 u-turn in Greece, whose premier decided to scrap the proposed referendum on the acceptance of the reforms imposed by the EU, leaves Italy alone on the frontline of the crisis. Rome alone can start the chain reaction leading to the meltdown. This is a huge responsibility - but also offers Italy immense power to blackmail other countries.
For decades, I tried to thrive by blackmailing Japan, South Korea, the US, or China. I told them, "give me money, or else I'll throw a missile on Tokyo, explode an atomic test near Seoul, bomb a US garrison or a ship, or starve my own people to death." But unfortunately, I managed to get little. My threats were at best local, and thus they could only bring small, limited disturbances to regional economies that grew bigger and ever more confident of their strength and smug before my threats. A one-day crash in the Tokyo stock exchange prompted by a missile flying over Japan would get me a pittance in return. If I decided to press ahead, I would be invaded and toppled, so what could I do? I would have had to step down, give up my grand brinkmanship, and satisfy myself with less and less.
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Certainly, you have to be very prudent. You will have many enemies hunting for your scalp, and in brinkmanship you can easily walk over the brink. But you are a survivor like no one else, and you can do it. Reselect your team and fight.
I wish you well.
With admiration, Jong-il Kim
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MK09Dj02.html